Super Bowl Appetizer
The Waste Management Phoenix Open
(The 16th hole at WMPO - dubbed the loudest hole in golf)
It’s time to address the elephant in the room. This is a sports gambling newsletter that focuses primarily on the NFL and dabbles in College Football. Well…it’s Super Bowl week, which is a little bittersweet. Why? Because it’s the last football game till August. So what are we going to do till then? I’ll tell you exactly what we’re going to do…
We’re going to bet on some fucking golf.
Allow us to introduce to you what might be sports bettings best kept secret. The events start Thursday morning/afternoon and end Sunday evening. Think about what I just said. You’re invested in a sporting event for almost an entire day, four days out of the week, just about every week till September. It may as well be the stock market for sports bettors. And since the field is so deep, you can find great value on some top talent. Interested? Great, keep reading. If not then we’ll be back in your inbox Friday morning with our Super Bowl picks and props.
“I do not have a problem, I enjoy gambling. I have a competition problem” - MJ
So after getting you hyped to bet some golf, let’s also be totally transparent in stating that we don’t really know shit. Not to worry - we follow some guys who do! In our betting strategy with the NFL, we take the sharp approach by watching how the markets react to public action and smart money. With golf, most “sharps” in this sport have models they build out for each course. They plug in each player based on their strengths and weaknesses, and their algorithm spits out which golfers have the best edge. With that said, we still use our gut to make a few plays and have no shame in sharing them.
Our suggestion is to structure your bets by taking a few golfers in each tier. We label them Horses (top teir, under 20/1), Solids (mid-tier, 20/1-40/1) and Long-shots (45/1 and higher). Our unit size differs per tier: 1 unit on the horses, .5 units on the solids and .25 units on the long-shots. Get rich however you’d like - just remember to pace yourself and bet responsibly.
Horses:
Victor Hovland +1600 — Vic has been playing lights out this year. Just won the Dubai Desert Classic two weeks ago. But don’t worry - there’s no jet lag as he took the week off.
Solids:
Daniel Berger +2500 — The Berg man has been getting a ton of love from the books. Word on the street is this course plays to his strengths very well. Our only concern here is that he hurt is back in Pebble Beach last week. If that scares you, no harm in passing. But if the Berger is well done, then expect him to be at the top of the leaderboard.
Scottie Scheffler +2500 — Scottie too hottie is strictly the “due” play. He is just so damn due to get his first win on tour. The only problem is that he’s apparently the trendy pick. Oddschecker.com shows that he’s receiving 7.8% of the bets, which is the most of any golfer.
Brooks +3000 — One of our favorite golfers. Although, since he’s started (and ended) the beef with Bryson, he just hasn’t been the same. He even died his hair blonde at the Farmers Insurance Open. Hopefully Brooks got it all out of his system and is ready to play some elite golf. We’d like to have a ticket should that happen.
Long-shots:
Russell Henley +4500 — A bit trendy, but we’ll dabble.
Seamus Power +6000 — Shit the bed last week in Pebble. Was the 36 hole leader by a wide margin. Power shakes it off and bounces back.
Maverick McNealy +7000 — Sick name, right?
One other important thing to note: during the Super Bowl, you can also bet what’s called “Cross Sport Specials”. For example: Matt Stafford passing yards vs John Rahm’s longest drive. Pretty fun stuff, and most importantly, keeps you invested all weekend. Check Fanduel and Draftkings for these today and tomorrow before the tourney tees off.
So without further ado, let’s introduce you to some pretty good golf follows. And yes, you’re going to need Twitter.
It should be noted that Luke has hit 18 outright winners between 2019-2021 with a net profit of +42 units. He’s on absolute fire this year, already hitting 4 in 2022 including Tom Hoge 66/1 last week, and Luke List 80/1 the week before.
Jeff might be the sharpest golf bettor that we know of. He doesn’t tweet out his picks, unfortunately. But if you’re really into this shit and have the time to listen to his podcast then we highly recommend. This dude hits OFTEN. He also goes on VSIN each week to discuss his plays. This week he has Harris English at 66/1 grading out #1 in his model in terms of value, and Seamus Power #2 at 60/1. Jeff is also great with daily matchup bets as well.
Brian hosts the Tap In Birdie podcast and does a pretty solid job of identifying value each tourney. But at the same time - he is one of us. What we mean by that is it doesn’t take much convince him that “his guy” is finally going to cash. Louie just so happens to be the one.
This is an incredibly helpful betting resource from the guys at Tap It In. They have their own podcast and dish out their own picks on Wednesday’s (on JT and Spieth this weekend), but using this to get an idea of how players fare at a course could prove to be even more useful before punching in your bets.
This is what we’re talking about. Spreadsheets and models to get an edge each tournament. The golf betting community is all about people helping people. @PGASplits101 is doing the lords work for your average golf gambler.
Okay, back to the lab to work on these Super Bowl prop bets. See you Friday morning!