Whether you like it or not - Patrick Mahomes is back in the Super Bowl for the 4th time in 6 years. This is also the second rematch the Chiefs have been involved in. After taking down the Niners last year, Kansas City find themselves going against a familiar foe who is new and improved with the Offensive Player of the Year.
This newsletter is not going to spend much time talking about who we think is going to win. You could pull out all the data, trends and analytics in the world to show us why Philly is the right side. Doesn’t matter. We just had our worst NFL season (by far), you think we want to end it by fading Patrick Mahomes? We’re idiots, but we aren’t stupid.
The Super Bowl is the most bet on sporting event of the year. From the coin toss, to the length of the National Anthem, which halftime song you’ll hear first, to who the MVP will thank first. This a day for PROPS. That’s where our focus is and that is what we will be sweating from start to finish.
We got the Degen crew together earlier in the week recorded and exclusive podcast talking props. A lot or takeaways from the episode you’ll find here in the newsletter, but feel free to give it a listen. Please also subscribe and leave us a review!
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 41-45-1 (-19.13 Units)
CFB: 53-32-1 (+16.57 Units)
Reminder for tracking purposes: our Best Bets are 2 units (risk)
Super Bowl LIX
Eagles vs Chiefs -1.5 Total 48.5
Degen
Chiefs to commit the first penalty (-105) - A hot topic during the playoffs is how much the refs favor Mahomes and the Chiefs. In my opinion, the NFL would be wise to set the tone and rid that narrative early. Illegal shit or phantom PI on KC incoming.
Saquan UNDER 25.5 Longest Rush (-135) - Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo is one of the best in the league. The Chiefs run D has not been stellar as of late, and even in the AFC Championship game James Cook got whatever he wanted on the ground. I think with two weeks to prepare, Steve knows they have to put an emphasis on stopping the run and force Jalen Hurts to beat them with this arm.
Isiah Pacheco OVER 8.5 Longest Rush (+100) - Is he hurt? I don’t know, I’m not a doctor. But I am going to take a small shot on Pacheco having an impact on this game. He has slowly been integrated back into the offense a few carries at a time, but I now think the Super Bowl is when they should let Pacheco loose. This is not to take away anything from Kareem Hunt who’s been doing a great job filling in, and I am still sure he will have an impact. I like Pacheco to be a sneaky weapon on the ground for the Chiefs in more ways than one.
Justin Reid OVER .5 Interception (+850) - I don’t trust Jalen Hurts to find much success through the air in this game. If my game script is on point, then the Eagles will stop the run and Hurts will be forced to throw. He’s not good under pressure, so I’m taking a shot on him making a few mistakes and hopefully an overthrow going right to the Chiefs stud safety.
1st Touchdown UNDER 7.5 Yards (-120) - This correlates back to my favorite bet which is the Chiefs to commit the first penalty. I can so see a phantom PI in the end zone on KC which leads to an early Tush Push or short yardage touchdown. If the Chiefs score first, I do not see it being a big splash play. They move the ball downfield methodically. If anything, I like Pat to scamper in.
Any quarter to end scoreless - YES (+325)
First score of game - Chiefs Touchdown (+190)
Pacheco & Hunt to outright Barkley - YES (+500)
Barkley to record a run of 50+ Yards - NO (-280) — yes, I am LAYING the juice.
Dino
Team to Call First Timeout Eagles (-110) - With the Chiefs in their 3rd straight Super Bowl and the Eagles looking for revenge from two years ago my hunch is that there are a bit more nerves with the Birds, and they crack first.
1 Quarter OVER 9.5 (-110) -
Both teams have had tremendous success scoring the first touchdown in recent weeks. And, in the case of the Eagles, they’ve also scored on their first offensive possession in all three playoff games. Philadelphia actually ranks second in First TD% behind the Ravens. The Chiefs are tied for 10th with one fewer game played. - Adam Burke VSIN
Grant Calcaterra Anytime TD (+2800) - Dallas Goedert is one of the the most trendy props on the board. Give me the 2nd TE to shine.
Coin Toss -Heads (-104) - Imagine doing a write-up on a coin toss.
Travis Kelce Octopus (+10000) - An Octopus is when a player scores a TD and a 2pt conversion (8 points - get it?). Worth a sprinkle, because Kelce is going to have a big game.
Triple Crown - Leading Passer (Mahomes), Leading Receiver (Kelce), Leading Rusher (Hurts) (+6500) - SQUAD RIDE!
Lowest Scoring Quarter 2Q (+850) - My game script is both teams come out hot, then we hit a bit of a rough patch in terms of scoring. Likely a donation, but a fun dart to have on Sunday.
Scorigami - Yes (+2500) - Numbers are FUN!
Steak
1H Under
Chiefs to convert a 4th down (-145)
AJB OVER Receptions
AJB OVER Receiving Yards
Devonta Smith UNDER Receiving Yards
Travis Kelce OVER Receptions
Travis Kelce ATD
Travis Kelce 100+ Receiving Yards
Travis Kelce to propose to Taylor Swift
Under 3.5 Sacks
Over 2.5 4th Down Conversions
Eagles 1st Timeout
Chiefs to win Coin Toss
Purple Gatorade
Overtime YES
George Karlaftis First Sack
Grant Calcaterra ATD
Xavier Worth OVER Rushing + Receiving Yards
BONUS PICK: GuyInCornFields
Jahan Dotson Over 2.5 Receiving Yards (-113) - DraftKings 1U
Let me be upfront: this isn't an "EDGE" play. It's the Super Bowl, after all. The lines have been up for over a week, and the sportsbooks can focus on just one game. But I’m still confident in Jahan Dotson for one simple reason—HE’S ON THE FIELD. It’s football, and anything can happen on any given play. Like with anything in life, when you put yourself out there enough, good things tend to happen.
This season, Dotson has been on the field for 58.1% of offensive snaps, and 59.2% in the playoffs. In the Wild Card round, he had 1 catch for 11 yards and a touchdown, but he hasn’t seen a target in the last two games. Despite that, he hit the over on this prop in 11 of 17 regular-season games (64.7%). He was even dubbed the 2024 NFL “Cardio King” by @LordReebs, after being targeted on just 7.6% of the 462 routes he ran.
The Chiefs have elite outside corners, so I’m hoping the coverage is tight enough to give Dotson some opportunities for secondary looks. Plus, in a game of this magnitude, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Eagles break from their usual tendencies and target Dotson more. With two weeks of rest, Jalen Hurts’ shoulder should be improving, which could mean a more open passing attack. Additionally, if the Chiefs are leading late in the game, Dotson could rack up some "garbage time" yards.
Thank you to all the new followers and supporters.
Tough year. College Football was great, but getting our ass kicked in any sport trumps that success. Just because we aren’t professionals and do this for fun doesn’t mean we don’t hate losing.
Whether you read this email every week, tune into the Board Reviews daily, bought merch, or listen to the podcast (leave a review!) you guys kick ass and make this passion of ours worthwhile.
So what’s next?
The daily focus on our streams will be on College Basketball, NHL and NBA. We’ve also just started using Outlier to help with prop betting. MLB is right around the corner. We’ll send out emails talking about March Madness, MLB Futures, NFL Draft, NHL/NBA Playoffs and big golf tournaments like The Masters. If you check out till football then we look forward to seeing you next year!