Rams @ Bengals +4.5 Total 48.5
The Stage
Just as we all predicted - The Cincinnati Bengals are in the Super Bowl. There surely has got to be some part of every football fan that’s happy for the Bungals, but also a part that’s a little bummed this isn’t a Chiefs/Rams matchup. We get it. That would probably be a guaranteed classic, whereas most feel the Rams might blowout the Bengals. We felt the same way at first. But if you stop and really look back at how a team whose odds to start the season were 125/1 to win the Super Bowl got here, you start to say to yourself “damn…they earned it”.
The Bengals
Joe Burrow has quickly become America’s Sweetheart. It feels like he gets a new nickname every day. You know The Degen loves us some Joey B, yet faded him all year. What did we say last week? We are DONE fading Joe Burrow (spoiler). We’ll delve into that later, but for now, we’re here to tell you that the real reason the Bengals have gotten this far isn’t because of Joey Brrr. It’s their defense. Specifically, their 2H defense.
The Bengals have allowed just ONE second half touchdown in 3 playoff games. That came in Tennessee after the Titans intercepted Burrow and started their drive on Cinci’s 27 yard line. Last week in Kansas City, the Bengals D held Mahomes and the Chiefs to 83 total yards in the 2H & OT. What’s even more impressive? The Chiefs and Bengals played in Week 17, and the Bengals had a similar performance, only allowing 112 yards and 3 points. Think about that for a second. In two games, the Bengals defense held the Chiefs offense to a combined 195 yards and 6 total points in the second half. Incredible. And no, this isn’t just a fluke. The Bengals 2H defensive adjustments have been their strong suit down the stretch. In the last 8 games, the Bengals have allowed 10 TOTAL points in the 3rd Quarter, which is best in the NFL.
Statistically, Joe Burrow hasn’t been all that great in these playoffs. The Defense has kept them in it, but the Bengals offense has also done just enough to get points when needed. All 3 of the Bengals playoff wins have come down to the last play, with the last 2 being walk off field goals by rookie kicker sensation Evan McPherson. The Bengals offensive line is terrible, having allowed 9 sacks against the Titans. But the offensive play-calling has adapted to their weakness. They throw it short, quick and take advantage of man coverage on Chase when given the chance. Burrow has also started using his legs a bit more, with two huge scrambles on third down that helped steal the win in the AFC Championship game. Unfortunately for this “team of destiny”, their biggest weakness plays into their opponents biggest strength. This is what appears to be a TERRIBLE matchup for Cincinnati. Can they overcome this with their swag? Hopefully, but probably not…
The Rams
The big, bad, star studded Rams. McVay knew they needed to upgrade from Goff, and made sure to get his QB in Stafford over the offseason. Then the Rams made midseason acquisitions of Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr. They traded all their high draft picks, and built this team to win a Super Bowl, and to win it now. The Rams are technically the away team, but this game is in LA. All the pressure is on them, and it feels like the Bengals are playing with house money. This is an angle we typically like to play, but it’s not as simple as that.
The Rams opened as a 3.5 point favorite and were quickly bet up to 4.5. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to tell you that they’re the better team. What they do best is something the Bengals do worst – and that’s getting after the QB. The Rams have the NFL’s best defense pressuring the QB, and the Bengals offense ranks 30th in protecting the QB. That is a recipe for disaster. If there was ever a time that a defensive player were to win MVP, it’s now.
The Outcome
Short answer: Rams win, Bengals cover. With sports betting becoming legal in more and more states, this is expected to the be heaviest bet Super Bowl ever. The Rams spread is the most popular bet, followed by the Bengals ML. Wouldn’t it just be poetic if Vegas absolutely cleaned up with that result? We can certainly see it happening. But let’s get serious…
We’re taking the Bengals and the points. This team reminds us of the Bucs last year. Favorites in round one, but then contrarian underdogs in every game after (although we are seeing some buyback on Cincy at 4.5). We also don’t have enough faith in Stafford not making a few errant throws, along with McVay having a few questionable coaching decisions. As we said – all the pressure is on the Rams.
Cam Akers is our favorite MVP bet in terms of value, and the guy whose props we are hammering. The Bengals defensive adjustments are most impressive in terms of shutting down the pass. The run, however, they are susceptible too. Cam is a stud, and the Rams rushed him back for this moment. Despite fumbling twice in Tampa, they still fed him the ball 24 times, and that was against one of the leagues best defense. If they can get the lead early, we think Sean knows to not force anything with Stafford, and let Cam eat.
As for the passing game? Look, Stafford probably still balls out, but Cooper Kupp is quite possibly the trendiest player prop SB bet of all time. We are fading him out of principle, and if anything, we think OBJ is the guy who makes “the catch” that you remember in this game.
If you told us to make a bet as if our life depended on it we’d go with Rams ML. Fortunately, there’s no gun to our head - just dreams that the city of Cincinnati drowns in Skyline Chili. With that, we’re rolling with the underdog.
The Pick: Bengals +4.5
The Props
In short – we like the Rams to win but the Bengals to cover. Stafford keeps it (somewhat) conservative, making enough throws to get the lead and McVay leans on Akers to control the clock. The Rams defense pressures Burrow and does so with success. The Bengals still have that rabbit foot up their ass, and don’t go down easy.
Before we jump into the game - let’s have some fun with the classic Super Bowl props:
Anthem length: Let’s be clear about one thing - we damn near always take this over, but this year gets bonus points because it’s a Country Music (aka Farm Emo) performer. Everything is slower in the country, and Mickey Guyton is going to add a nice Texas drawl to the home of the brave. If there was an adjusted over for this we’d be all over it. Over 102.5 seconds
Gatorade color: Blue and Orange have dominated the last decade. Time for a new Queen. Clear had a preposterous run of 4 in a row from 05-08 but hasn’t made an appearance since. Can’t stain the fancy new SoFi stadium with some bunk ass Purple stuff. Keep it clean, keep it clear - Clear +260
First Halftime song: This one more than any other bet is all about feel. You have to close your eyes, listen to all the candidates, and truly envision what intro is going to get 1,000 of LA’s fakest backup dancers to get fired up on the field. It’s not confirmed who’s coming out first, but we lean Snoop. California Love is the favorite at +150, but we think that’s wayyy too obvious. No one is more LA than Snoop - our money is on him to perform first and get the crowd chanting his name Who Am I (What’s my Name)+700
Who the MVP thanks first: Let’s play this down the fairway and say Stafford wins MVP. “Teammates” is the heavy favorite at -150, but we think there’s great value with McVay for rescuing him from rusting out in Detroit. Coach +700
Coin Toss: Tails all day, every day. Why? Because it never fails. Duh.
Rams
Akers 50+ Rushing Yards -250
Akers rushing yards vs Mixon -115
Akers 2 or more TD’s +600
Stafford INT YES -150
Kupp UNDER 105.5 Yards -120
OBJ Longest Reception OVER 22.5 Yards -110
Von Miller over .5 sack -165
Von Miller 1st sack +600
Bengals
Higgins 2 or more TD’s +900
Mike Hilton 1st INT +1500
Burrow Rushing Yards OVER 11.5 -110
Burrow 275+ Passing Yards -150
Game Props
Correct score Rams 24-21 +10000
Correct score Rams 27-23 +8500
Correct score Rams 27-24 +6600
Correct score Rams 21-17 +10000
Correct 1Q score Rams 10-7 +3300
Correct 1Q score Rams 7-3 +1200
Bengals first timeout -115
Rams first sack -175
Rams first challenge -120
Total game TD’s OVER 4.5 -250
Sack to happen before touchdown YES -140
Miss FG or XP YES +110
MVP
Cam Akers +3300
Aaron Donald +1200
Von Miller +4000
Jalen Ramsey +4000
Tee Higgins +3300
Good luck to all our Degenerates out there. Have fun, and bet responsibly.