Chiefs vs Eagles -1.5 Total 51
The Stage
One of my favorite things about this years Super Bowl is that the two best teams are in it. You’d think that’s how it always works out, but it doesn’t. I will go to my grave saying last year was meant to be the Bills year. If that blown 36-33 lead with 13 seconds left haunts me, I can’t imagine what it does to the great people of Buffalo. Then the following week, the Bengals came back from being down 21-3 to beat the Chiefs. It’s not always the better overall team - but the better team that day.
Despite some key injuries and questionable officiating, there’s no doubt Philly and KC deserve to be here. I truly don’t remember a SB where we at the Degenerate have been this torn with a pick. The oddsmakers opened KC -2.5, and the betting market laughed their ass off at it. Within 24 hours the sharps hammered Philly, and moved the Eagles to a 1.5 point favorite. We’ve also seen the total get hit from 49.5 up to 51.
Some of the narratives we’ve heard the past two weeks: Andy Reid revenge game (former Eagles HC), Patrick Mahomes as an underdog, the Eagles having the better D line, and the Chiefs not having competent wide receivers. Deep down, every bettor will find some sort of connection with one of these as a reason for making their bet. Let’s make a case for each team and see where we end up.
The Eagles
Two guys I was very wrong about: Zac Taylor and Nick Sirianni. Neither passed my eyeball test, but then Sirianni had his press conference, and I sold even more stock. Not that I was fading the Eagles, but I surely didn’t think this goober was going to make it out of Philly alive. Two years later and the 41 year old head coach has made me look like a massive idiot. Siranni got roasted on Twitter after his first press conference when the Eagles hired him. He seemed awkward, and said some things that at the time sounded very elementary and borderline silly. But now, it all makes so much sense…
“The first part of being smart is knowing what to do. We’re going to…we’re going to know…we’re going to have systems in place that are easier to learn”
“When we can learn our system and we can get good at our system, then our talent can take over. Less thinking equals talent takeover, but we need to have systems in place and we will have systems in place to do so”
After watching the Eagles offense this year, which ranks 1st in the NFL in many categories, I gotta say…bravo. Philly simplifies the game better than any team in the league, while also having done a great job of loading their roster with the necessary talent. We all deserve to be shamed for thinking this guy was in over his head.
He’s also aggressive in all the right ways. The Eagles were faced with a 4th down on two separate scoring drives in the first half against the Niners. They wen’t for both and got both. Granted, the first was an incomplete pass that was ruled a catch, but even more kudos to the Eagles for being so well coached and hurrying the next play. It’s not easy to make Kyle Shanahan look dumb, and that’s exactly what they did.
The Eagles coaching staff deserves a ton of credit for getting them to the Super Bowl, but so does third year QB Jalen Hurts. It’s not often you’ll see the 53rd pick in the draft go 14-1 as a starter and be in MVP contention this early in his career. He’s flourished in the system Philly has designed for him. Aside from his talent - Hurts is also just an easy guy to root for. He’s got what Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins will never have: MOXY.
The last key piece of the Eagles success we’ll touch on is their defense. They’re fast, physical and just overall nasty. What’s impressive about the unit is they take on the personality of the city. Unlike the Bills who get pushed around in the snow in their backyard, the Eagles defense does the bullying. Lead by Haason Reddick, the Eagles lead the league in sacks with 70 (!). The next closest teams have 55/54. That’s quite a large margin. They also rank 2nd in yard allowed per game (301), just one yard behind the Niners D, which was widely considered to be the best in the league. In some ways, you can say they’re “slept on”. The one reason for that may be their opponents they’ve faced. In the last 9 weeks of the regular season, the only above average QB’s were Aaron Rodgers and Dak Prescott. Both put up over 33 points. The Eagles also dropped a divisional game at home to the Commanders, where they allowed a Taylor Heinicke lead offense to put up 25 first downs and 32 points.
Philly has been dominant in the playoffs, but they’ve also only gone against Daniel Jones (don’t get me started), Brock Purdy (for 4 plays) and Josh Johnson. They have not faced an “elite” QB all season. In our opinion, that’s what’s going to be the true test for these short favorites.
The Chiefs
Mahomes has been a starter for five years. In that time his lowest point has been a loss in the AFC Championship. In a division that literally spent a billion dollars to dethrone the king, the Chiefs went 6-0. Kansas City even had one of the best offensive weapons in the NFL (Tyreek Hill) leave and Mahomes still won the MVP. This team, and more specifically, this tandem with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, is building the NFL’s next great dynasty. What’s really impressive is how this offense has been able to excel, no matter the circumstances.
The 2022 Chiefs may not seem like it, but the offense is very different than years past. Previously it was airing the ball out with big plays to Tyreek and Kelce. This year it’s a dink and dunk clinic. Let’s nerd out on some @sharpfootball stats for a moment:
- 46% of Mahomes passes this year came within 2.5 seconds of the snap
- 54% of those passes went only 1-10 yards
- 39% of his passes came at or behind the line of scrimmage
Why does this all matter? Because ultimately no quarterback has been sacked less when under pressure than Patrick Mahomes this year. When you’re talking about a matchup versus a team like Philly, who is very strong up front and has a ton of ability to create pressure with Haason Reddick, it’s a huge deal. Especially when you factor in the great unknown of Mahomes’ ankle and how it might impact the game.
Despite the Bengals getting the best of them during the regular season, the Chiefs were able to squeeze out a tight one at home. Complain all you want about the refs, but the Chiefs defense did a phenomenal job containing Joe Burrow and limiting the damage from Jamar Chase and Company. DC Steve Spagnuolo has quietly made drastic improvements to this defense over the last year.
Despite all the news around Mahomes’ ankle, there is reason to believe that Jalen Hurts is the more injured of the two quarterbacks. We have yet to see him light it up like he did during the regular season since returning from his shoulder injury in week 18. Now, I could be way off base, as the Eagles have dominated their opponents and it never required Hurts to air it out, but it’s certainly worth mentioning. Ultimately, if this defense can find a way to keep pressure on Hurts and limit his ability to make huge plays, the offense will find a way to pick up the slack.
The Total
Just as the Eagles got hit with early money to flip the line, so did the over. The total opened 49.5 and has steadily risen to 51 at most books. Some are sitting at 50.5, because every time it touches 51 money hits the under. At the opener, you can consider this over to be both public and sharp.
After a slew of overs in the Wildcard Round (5-1), it’s been all unders the rest of the way. 4-0 in Divisional Round, and 2-0 in Conference Championships. No shame in taking the over in the big game, especially when it includes Mahomes. But we think both of these defenses are far better than people realize, and for that, we lean under.
The Outcome
The heart wants the birds, but the brain says Chiefs. In a spread this tight we’re going to pay the juice and buy some points with KC. It’s not often that you get one of the best QB/Coach combos of all time in a contrarian spot, and we have no choice but to lean into it.
The Pick: Chiefs +3.5 (-170)
The Props
Ok – let’s chat about the fun stuff! The dumb shit you can tell your wife’s cousin about and keep them entertained as your FanDuel account steadily drains. This is all in the name of a good time. It’s projected that 50 million people will be wagering BILLIONS of dollars on the Super Bowl. We’ll give you our leans for the most fun bets.
Anthem length: Chris Stapleton is performing, and we don’t know shit about him, so this should be fun. What we do know is he has a song about Tennessee Whisky. The last time a country music performer sang the anthem solo was Luke Bryant - he went under. Taking one look at this Stapleton fella makes me believe he’s a get in, get out, and get on with your life type of guy. We’re always over guys, but it’s the under here.
Gatorade color: This might be more important than any other nugget in our write-ups. The Eagles actually dunked Sirianni after the NFC Championship win (Lime). Maybe it’s a bit of a jinx, maybe it’s foreshadowing. Time will tell. When the Chiefs won their SB, it was Orange. So what’s a Degen to do? Call it a bit of hedge, but give us the Lime at +400.
Who the MVP thanks first: Depends on who you like for the game. Jalen is definitely a god guy (+120). But if you like Mahomes, you have to respect Coaches at +2800.
GAME PROPS:
KC OVER 0.5 4th Down conversions (-135)
Game to be tied after 0-0 (-130)
Successful 2pt Conversion (+245)
Any non QB to have a passing TD (+2200)
Score in first 7:30 of game YES (-220)
Our Guys
For the Super Bowl we always like to pick “a guy”. The player who you’re going to key in on and unload on on their props. Yardage, catches, attempts, to score a touchdown. You get the Point. You can check the website this weekend to see exactly what props were laying, but below is a brief breakdown of who we got our eye on.
AJ Brown – Brandon
The Big fella has been relatively quiet through the playoffs, but Vegas is putting a ton of respect on his yardage and TD Props. The Eagles play smart football, and the smart thing to do is get the ball to your best offensive weapon as often as possible.
Travis Kelce – Greg
The biggest “don’t over think it” play for the weekend. This guy just continues to perform at the highest level and I’m not gonna walk away now. Worth a sprinkle to win MVP at +1100.
Isiah Pacheco – Jake
Jake likes AJ Brown as well, but let’s diversify. Damien Williams had a huge game in the Chiefs SB win against the Niners. Do we see a repeat performance from an RB in red?
Good luck to all our Degenerates out there. Have fun, and bet responsibly.