Welcome to The Degenerate - Each week we’ll give you a few picks, insights, trends, and what to watch for on Sunday. Full disclosure - neither of us claim to be experts. We’re just two guys who’ve spent many years betting like chumps, and now we are passionate about helping others to avoid being one.
We made it boys and girls – it’s playoff time. Overall, it’s been a brutal season for bettors, and a great one for the books. Historically one of their best. You’ve probably endured some bumps and bruises. Suck it up. This isn’t the time to call it quits – this is when you press. The public got crushed in 2020,  so we expect more chalk than shock this weekend to even things out.
Little bit of context before we jump into things this week - In the playoff version of The Degenerate, we’re going to give you our take on each team, and then leave you with the pick. Yes, it’s going to be a long email and a lot of reading. Don’t sit on the toilet the entire time. Get up, go for a walk, breathe in some fresh air, embrace the magic. The Browns and Bills are in the playoffs and there are only 13 NFL games left in the season, what a fucking time to be alive. Count your blessings and take care y’all Chickens. Deposit that Christmas money from Nana and let’s find some locks!
Saturday Slate
6,700 of Buffalo’s finest - Colts @ Bills -6.5 Total 52
The Case: Colts +6.5
We have a soft spot for Buffalo, so this part is going to be tough but let’s try our best! Here’s what you’ve got on your side as a Colts backer: history. The Bills are 0/5 in Wildcard games going back to 1996. Would anything be more Buffalo than this miserable franchise requiring fans to get a $63 Covid test, only to show up and watch their team lay an egg in the cold? Rivers has 11 games of playoff experience (almost as many kids) and this may be his last rodeo. He won’t go down without a fight, and now he’s got a shiny new toy named Jonathan Taylor who can’t be stopped. JT rushed for 250+ yards in the season finale against Jacksonville. The Bills will be preparing to stop the run, but Frank Reich is savvy enough to counter it with Rivers making easy throws and catching Buffalo off guard. The D should step up as Matt Eberflus (D Coordinator) has his name out there for top new coaching candidates. As much as we love Buffalo, they are a public play, and for that reason…we are taking the points. So tighten up your bolo tie and get ready for a wild one up north.
The Case: Bills -6.5
How can you not love Buffalo. They haven’t hosted a playoff game since December 1996 (they lost). Tailgating may be banned, but Cuomo (not getting into politics) did allow for fans to attend the game. All 6,700 of the proudest Covid negative Buffalonians will be screaming their god damned lungs out right in old man Rivers’ eardrum. If you take away the Cardinals hail-mary, the Bills would have ended the season on a 10 game winning streak. The defense found their groove and the offense doesn’t know how to take its foot off the gas. The Bills are the 6th team in the SB era to score 50+ points in the final game of the season and make the playoffs. 4 of the last 5 have won their first playoff game. Also, the Colts are only in the playoffs due to the Bills beating the Dolphins. You think the Bills are going to welcome them with open arms? Fuck off. Josh Allen got his first dose of playoff experience last year when the Bills blew a 16 point lead in Houston. He was not great with his arm, but was lethal with his legs. All this talk about the Colts having a great defense, but look closer at their schedule. They’re 3-4 against playoff teams, and ended the season with wins against the Texans (twice), Raiders and Jags. You want to be holding a Colts ticket when the city of Buffalo is ablaze celebrating its first playoff win since 1995? I don’t think so.
The Pick – Colts +6.5
Too close to call - Rams @ Seahawks -4.5 Total 42.5
The Case: Rams +4.5
Goff just had thumb surgery, so rumor has it John Wolford may be getting the start. We should probably stop the write up there…but we won’t. That’s too easy. Listen, nobody wants to bet on a backup QB making his second career start on the road in the playoffs. I totally get that. But, hear me out – has Goff really been THAT good? The Rams offense has only scored over 24 points in 3 of its last 13 games. Goff was BAD last time these two met in Seattle, posting a 61 QB rating and the Rams losing 20-9. No, Wolford did not look good at Arizona last week, but so what. You just need one of these guys to cover, and the defense is good enough to make it happen. In the second half of the season, the Rams rank #1 in overall defensive efficiency. Jalen Ramsey has proven he can lock down any teams best receiver, and Russell has certainly has had his share of bad games down the stretch. McVay McVay McVay. That’s what you have to tell yourself here. Maybe even click your heels 3 times. Got anymore eggnog left? Don’t be sober if you’re taking the Rams.
The Case: Seahawks -4.5
This feels like bullying. Seattle at home only laying 4.5 against either a banged up Goff or John Wolford? The Seahawks expect to have all 5 starters on the O line back for this game. They’ve only had them play together in 5 games this season. Their record when that happens? 5-0. The Rams could be in for a long day despite there being no 12th man. Aaron Donald and the boys are a feisty bunch though, so we don’t necessarily have the balls the lay the points. Sack up and take the ML here.
The Pick – Seahawks ML -200
Some good news out of Washington - Bucs @ Football Team +8 Total 45
The Case: Bucs -8
Fire the Mother Fucking Cannons! Tom terrific arrives in Tampa and immediately ends the 13 year playoff drought. Remarkable. This team has been red hot to end the season. Have they played the toughest of opponents? Absolutely not. But so what! Look at their season removing the Saints - they lost 3 games by a combined 7 points. The defense has only shown weakness in the passing game, which isn’t necessarily the Football Teams strong suit. The biggest challenge will be Washington’s defensive front, but Brady gets rid of the ball in 2 seconds so that may not be much of a factor. Tom has to feel great about the Pats missing the playoffs the first season he’s not with the team, and still has plenty to prove. Sure, 8 is a lot of points, but how much longer can the Alex Smith comeback story really last?
The Case: Football Team +8
Alex Smith is the fucking man (see what we did there?). Not only is he going to win comeback player of the year, but they may rename the award after him. The dude honestly plays like every game is his last. He’s the closet thing to a Zombie in all of professional sports. But more importantly, how cool is Chase Young? This guy even stands on the sideline all game talking shit when his offense is on the field. He’s like a boxer who doesn’t take a seat to get a splash of water between rounds. He’s already chirping Brady. Sure, that could backfire, but that’s way too predictable. Turn on ESPN and all you’ll hear is how the Bucs have the easiest playoff match-up in NFL history. Yes they won the division at 7-9, but are 5-1 with Alex the great as their starter. Mike Evans is a game-time decision, but the biggest injury news might be Devin White for the Bucs D missing. He’s one of the best young linebackers in the league. His absence should open up some running holes for Gibson. The Football Team is your biggest contrarian play of the weekend. Don’t be a chump – take the home team with the points, even if it seems all but impossible.
The Pick – Football Team +8
SUNDAY (hopefully it’s not) BLOODY SUNDAYYYY
Third times a charm - Ravens @ Titans +3.5 Total 54.5
The Case: Ravens -3.5
Talk about a revenge game! Perhaps we should even call it…double revenge? The Titans knocked shocked the Ravens last year as a 9 point underdog, and then beat them earlier this season as a 7 point underdog. The Ravens were 6-5 before they just rattled off 5 straight wins, 4 of which were by 14+ points. Yes, it was a cupcake schedule, but Lamar seems to have figured it out after a poor start to the year. The total indicates this could be the most exciting game of the weekend, and we don’t think it’ll disappoint. LJ has had poop problems lately and the Titans defense is Charmin soft. This team is simply too hot to be ignored.
The Case: Titans +3.5
King Henry oh where art thou?! Guy can’t be stopped. The only angle to focus on as a Tennessee backer is that they’ve got the Ravens number. Vrabel somehow someway is all up in Harbaughs ass. It’s very hard to beat the same team twice in professional sports, let alone 3 times. The reemergence of Tannehill has been one of the best stories in the NFL over the last few years, but the defense has been absolutely shredded giving up nearly 40 points in back to back weeks to close our the regular season. But a home team getting points is never a bad idea!
The Pick – Ravens ML
Wait and see - Bears @ Saints -9.5 Total 48
The Case: Bears +9.5
Feeling like Natalie Imbruglia here because we are TORN. Titty Mitch with 9.5 points is oh so tempting, despite getting their shit kicked in by the Packers in week 17. You gotta tell yourself that Arod just has their number. New game, new season. Bears lucked into the playoffs with the Cardinals losing, so they’re playing with house money. The Saints are always known to shit the bed in the playoffs. Collapsed in Minnesota losing on a last second play, dreadful offensive performance against the Rams, and then lost to the Vikings (again) as a 10 point favorite. Can it really happen again?! Probably not, but that’s no fun. Go Bears!
The Case: Saints -9.5
Brees is back and his crisp 10 yard passes are looking pretty good for an old fart. Rumor has it this is his last hoorah, which is probably for the best. He’s had a hell of a career and has been huge for short guys self esteem. HOWEVER…the guy has less ribs than Marilyn Manson, and his time to walk off into the sunset is fast approaching. Is Kamara playing? Doesn’t matter. The big bad Bears defense is a thing of the past. We will change our mind a few more times before this game is actually played, but right now we’re screaming WHO DAT! One of these games is going to be murder ball, and right now this feels like it. (Could totally change our feelings if there’s a blowout in Washington or Buffalo)
The Pick - Saints - 9.5
Bet against the narrative - Browns @ Steelers - 5.5 (and counting)
The Case: Browns +5.5
The narrative here is that a team who hasn’t been to the playoffs in what feels like an eternity has finally made it, only to be struck by Covid. They will be without their head coach and perhaps a few players. So naturally, most would think to fade them. And the line movement shows exactly that as the Steelers opened at -3.5. Not so fast! Is it ever that easy in sports betting? No. So again, we say bet AGAINST the narrative here, and bet ON the Rona. We think Chubb can stay Chubbing, and Baker cooks just enough to keep it close.
The Case: Steelers -5.5
Big Ben and Co. absolutely rolled the Browns earlier this year at home and nearly beat them last weekend without a handful of key starters and assault victim Mason Rudolph leading the way. Steelers were in an absolute free fall for about a month, until the 2H against the Colts. The big question is did Pitt get their mojo back, or did Indy crumble? We think this will be pretty clear early in the game which is true. Getting Robert Spillane back this week should help to bolster the Burgh’s pass rush, which is Bakers Kryptonite. Ben may not be what he once was, and the running game is nonexistent, but a fantastic defense can make up for a lot of short comings on offense. Ben finds a way. Steelers win but don’t cover.
The Pick - Browns +5.5
Thank you all again for supporting us with feedback your feedback this year. Please share with any of your buddies who might find this entertaining. And best of luck this weekend.
2020 Regular Season: 71-55