This is it! 13 games left to decide the Super Bowl Champion and it all starts on Saturday. We got some fantastic storylines heading into the Wildcard Weekend ahead. Tyreek’s return to Kansas City, Stafford and Goff going at it against their former teams in Detroit, and big fella Mike McCarthy down in Dallas with a shot at revenge against the Packers.
The Degenerate finished a strong year out on a high note going 2-1 last week, but the fun has just begun. To the Playoffs we go!
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 55-38-1 (+11.46 Units)
CFB: 41-42-2 (-4.86 Units)
Super Wildcard Weekend
Packers at Cowboys -7 Total 50.5 (Degen’s Best Bet)
When the playoff schedule was released and I first saw the spreads, my first reaction was “the Cowboys are going to beat the shit out of the Packers”. Now what concerns me, and I know this is silly, is that I’d have to imagine just about everyone feels that way. Find me someone who isn’t going to tease the Cowboys or have their ML in a parlay this weekend. Nevertheless, I’m not going to let that spook me off Dallas.
I couldn’t quite figure out how to attack this game at first. Ultimately, I see scoring and thought about the over, but elected to remove the Packers from the equation. Some might say that’s not a smart move, as Jordan Love has looked good, and Green Bays offense might be fully healthy for the first time in a long time. My counter to that is they’re extremely young and inexperienced. Not to mention, the Boys defense ain’t too shabby.
So here I am, fading this fuck Joe Barry once again. He’s gotten the best of me two weeks in a row. I had the Vikings in Week 17, and the Bears in Week 18. Both times the Packers not only won, but their defense stepped up, which is the specific group I continue to fade. I can’t stop now. In the last 5 weeks of the season, the Packers have faced the following QB’s:
Tommy DeVito
Baker Mayfield
Bryce Young
Jaren Hall
Justin Fields
Dak and this offense have been too good at home (8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS) having scored 30+ points in all but one game (Lions). I also love that Dallas has just come out of their tough stretch - at Buffalo, at Miami and vs Philly - to then go on the road in Washington and cruise to an easy W, while putting up 38 points. They fought back to win the division, and I think they put on a show for the home crowd against this Swiss Cheese (hehe) Packers Defense.
The Pick: Cowboys Team Total Over 29.5 (-115)
Eagles at Buccaneers +3 Total 43.5 (Dino’s Best Bet)
The old Monday → Friday complete 180! If you would have talked to me four days ago I would be doing by best to pitch you why the Bucs aren’t only covering, but they are winning.
Listen, I’ve been low on the Bucs all year. As a Steeler fan, I want to fade Baker. As a football fan, I have to fade Todd Bowles. Outside of that I have nothing against this team. But now’s the time to put up or shut up. I can’t come around and support Tampa when it matters most, I’ve got to have some integrity!
Out of all the playoff teams, you can’t find two that are on more opposite sides of the spectrum…
The Eagles: Defending NFC Champions. Started the year 10-1, finished 1-5. As dead as dead can be.
The Bucs: The GOAT left, and Baker came in to pick up the pieces. A longshot to win the worst division in football. They finished the year to finish 5-1, soaring over their expected win total and winning the division. (I faded both, jackass).
Not only did the Eagles finish the season losing outright in back to back games to Cardinals and Giants, but they haven’t covered the spread in six straight games.
I’ve seen roadkill with more life than the Eagles. Over this losing streak Vegas has disrespected them time and time again with sharp bettors approval/backing.
Week 13 vs SF: Opened as home dogs, line moved to SF, got destroyed
Week 14 vs Dallas: Again dogs, again line moves to Dallas, again massacre
Week 18 vs Giants: Short opener moves several point to G-Men, they win outright
Now - In the wildcard round, with injuries aplenty (Hurts, Brown, Smith) the Eagles open at a respectable -2.5 and the sharps push it up to -3. Against a red hot Bucs team? Philly hasn’t won a road game since Nov. 20th!
This dog is dying, but it ain’t dead yet.
The Pick: Eagles -3 (-110)
Rams at Lions -3 Total 51.5 (Steaks Best Bet)
If everyone is saying “don’t sleep on team XYZ” then chances are no one is sleeping on them. The Rams won a Super Bowl two years ago for christ sake! They are undoubtedly the trendiest dog of the weekend - and you KNOW how Steak feels about trendy dogs!\.
Maybe McVay has Goffs number, maybe the Lions secondary is ripe to be exploited by Stafford, Kupp and Nacua. But Steak says the Lions run the ball down their throats and keep the Rams potent offense off the field.
Don’t underestimate the chip on Jared Goff’s shoulder and don’t expect Dan Campbell to go down without a fight. Steak is a Lion, hear him ROAR!
The Pick: Lions -3 (-120)
RECAP:
NFL
Cowboys TT Over 29.5 (-115) Degen’s Best Bet
Eagles -3 (-110) Dino’s Best Bet
Lions -3 (-110) Steak’s Best Bet