Sweet Sixteen and The Oscars
Aim Small, Miss Small
Last week was a shotgun approach: ready, shoot, aim. Too many games to fit them all, so we focused on each of our best bets. Now we step into the Sweet 16 and this is a fucking charcuterie board. Love (almost) everything on the board. Only eight games so we’ll let you know how we feel about all of ‘em for Thursday and Friday. Not trying to flood your inboxes, so for Saturday and Sunday follow us on Twitter. Let’s dive in.
What’s our motto? Buy bad news, sell good news. Perfect example: the Big 12 went 6-0 (straight up and ATS) in the 1st round. Everyone sings their praises and guess what? 2-4 ATS in round 2. Now, headed into the Sweet 16 the ACC is pounding their chest. Get ready to fade away.
#4 Arkansas vs. #1 Gonzaga -9
The #1 overall seed and highest favorite to win it all is 0-2 ATS to start the tournament. They struggled early in their opener against Georgia St. It wasn’t till late in the 2H that they finally got going and went on a 23-3 run to close it out (still couldn’t cover the 22.5). Then in the next round, Memphis gave them everything they had. Gonzaga even found themselves as a live dog late in the 2H. Yet again, they showed up when needed and pulled out the win.
So you think the public is rushing to the window to back the Zags at this number? Nope. Everyone wants the gritty dog here. Not us! Keep in mind the oddsmakers are giving the same respect to 4 seed Arkansas as they did to 9 seed Memphis. Their models know this is a horrible matchup for pig sooey. Majority of bets are on Arkansas, but the line went from -8.5 to -9. Don’t let the big number scare you off.
The Pick: Gonzaga -9
#11 Michigan vs. #2 Villanova -5
Maybe the toughest game on the board. It’s weird to think of Michigan as the Cinderella in this tournament, yet they sort of have an argument to be in consideration for it. Some say they had no business of even making the tournament, or at best should have been a play-in game. This team faced a lot of adversity - head coach suspended the remaining 5 games of the season, early exit in the Big 10 tourney after a big blown lead, then without a starting player in the first round due to a concussion. Meanwhile Villanova and Jay Wright are experienced and poised. They handled business, covering as a 15.5 favorite against Delaware and 5.5 favorite against Ohio St. The public was on the dogs in both matchups. Now, they’re done fading Nova. We are seeing 64% of the bets laying the -5, but the line is holding firm. We like the dog when it’s not trendy.
The Pick: Michigan +5
#3 Texas Tech vs. #2 Duke +1 (The Bookies Pick)
The bookie is back! And in all honesty, we aren’t a fan of his return. Greg and I think Tech is the sharp play here, but the bookie thinks it’s a trap trap. We’d love nothing more than to see it through that Coach K’s retirement tour ends with an L.
The bookie is high on Duke, even though Vegas is not. The Blue Devils were 12/1 to win it all before the tournament started, and somehow they’ve gone backwards to 14/1. That is quite bizarre. But the oddsmakers do make mistakes (i.e. Kentucky at +850 - third best odds). So we are left with no choice but to trust our guy.
The Pick: Duke +1
#5 Houston vs. #1 Arizona -1.5 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
In my opinion, this is the sharpest pick on the board. Houston has a very high power ranking, but they are not trusted or respected by the betting public. Can’t say we blame them. It’s tough to tell which team is going to show up, but when it’s good, they can play with (and beat) anyone. What sticks out most to us is how short this spread is. Not often you see a 1 seed as a short bucket favorite against a 5. We think Vegas knows Houston has what it takes to pull of the upset and the public refuses to believe. This is a class reverse line, as Arizona is getting 59% of the bets, but the line opened -2 and is now down to -1.5. Big money is hitting Houston, and we are following.
The Pick: Houston +1.5
#15 St. Peter’s vs. #3 Purdue -12.5
Hell of a run by St. Peter’s. Way to put this tiny strip mall of a College on the map, Peacocks! Their Head Coach was on PMT this week and their players are getting NIL deals out the ass. This has been the best Spring Break in St. Peter’s history.
But all good things must come to an end. Cinderella is headed home in a pumpkin, unfortunately. This team has the best resume in the tourney after beating Kentucky (still bitter) and never trailing against Murray State. If you haven’t heard it yet, we can guarantee everyone is going to be shouting it pre-tip that Peters was the 2nd best team in the country ATS (22-9). You’re going to have to tell your public brain to shut the hell up and not fall for this one. 70% of the tickets are on St. Peter’s. Boiler Up!
The Pick: Purdue -12.5
#4 Providence vs. #1 Kansas -7.5
This is another one of the trickiest games of the weekend. Opening at -8.5 the sharps jumped on early and pushed it a full point toward Providence. That might be enough for us to get on. 67% of the public and 78% of the money is in their favor. This game screams Jayhawks win, Fryers cover. Hoops guru (must follow this time of year) Greg Peterson has been saying for weeks that Providence is one of the luckiest teams this year, and that’s enough for us to throw a small ticket on Providence to pull the cover. Barring any late movement in either direction, we’re riding with the Fryers.
The Pick: Providence +7.5
#8 UNC vs. #4 UCLA -2 -Greg’s best bet
How is no one talking about UCLA?! This team went to the Final Four last year and put up one hell of a fight losing to Gonzaga on a last second 3 in OT. Now they’re back gearing up for another run, but the public isn’t buying it. They’re all over UNC. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills! This team is getting respect from Vegas and that’s all I need to see.
The Pick: Bruins ML -140
#11 Iowa St. vs. #10 Miami -2.5
Get ready to end your Friday night with a dog fight. There is nothing like a #10 vs. #11 seed game in the Sweet 16. This is why the tournament is amazing - of course neither of these teams has a chance to win it all, but they’re going to fight like hell until their run is over. Miami is coming off an 18 point win over #2 seed Auburn, and even though Iowa St. knocked off Wisconsin, it was in less convincing fashion. The early numbers are showing a ton of faith in The U, with 70% of the tickets coming in on Miami. Like we said - this is a dog fight, and in a dog fight, you take the dog! Does that make sense? I think it makes sense. Anyway… Cyclones!
The Pick: Iowa State +3 (buy 0.5)
THE OSCARS
(Bong Joon Ho, Director of Parasite with his Oscars in 2020)
You might be asking yourself “whoa, I can bet on the Oscars?”. Fuck yea you can, and it’s awesome. We’ve had great success in the past few years, but admittedly, we are no film experts. Who is? Our good friend Tony Leondis, who we’ve had take the wheel and do the write ups for this year. Tony has helped us hit just about every Best Picture since 12 Years A Slave in 2014. Most notably Birdman (-225) in 2016, Moonlight (+800) in 2017, Shape of Water (+700) in 2019. He even got us on Zendaya to win the Emmy for best Actress (+1000) in 2019 for her role in Euphoria. He’s got a great read on where the Academy’s focus is given the current global climate. Because let’s be honest, that’s all that really matters in these awards.
Best Picture
My preferred strategy for betting best picture, is not to take the Vegas favorite - or even the most critically acclaimed movie of the year, but bet with the overall climate of the world. This has proven to be successful over the past decade, when some heavy hitting favorites have not won (looking at you La La Land). This year I believe there are two dogs that have a serious chance at winning best picture.
CODA +500 — Don’t you think those academy voters would feel great about themselves if they voted Coda best picture this year? Coda was a fine movie, and worthy of a win (which it has been racking up in every other major award ceremony), but it certainly is not a traditional best picture winner. This is the true value play.
DUNE +1800 — The Academy/ABC have said it themselves - no one is watching this dumb ass show. They even trimmed down the televised awards this year to try and attract more people. How can they do that in 2022? I say you give the best picture award to a movie starring Zendaya and Timothee Chalamet. What better way to get The Oscars trending on twitter Sunday night and ensure viewership for next year’s Oscars than to have two of the hottest young talents be in the best picture winner - and subsequently present them next year. Good long shot bet.
Best Actor
Tough to go against Will Smith (King Richard) here, but at -500 this is probably a no bet. He was good in King Richard but his accent changed more times than Leo’s did in Blood Diamond.
Value Bet - Cumberbatch +250 (Power of the Dog) just so ABC can air the same speech he gave at his Hollywood walk of fame day (very Ukraine-y).
Best Actress
Hollywood loves to give awards to people portraying Hollywood icons don’t they? Kidman (Lucy and Desi) is always unreal and this was no different.
Value Bet- Olivia Coleman +300. She already has an Oscar win under her belt and this movie was all her. The Lost Daughter was a wacky film, and she was fantastic.
Best Animated Feature - Greg’s Best Bet
Encanto is the absolute stone cold lock for this one…or is it? Certainly thought so, but it’s only sitting at -350 when this thing should be -1000 to win. We did a little digging as to why and we think the reason is Flee. Here’s the description:
The film follows Amin Nawabi, who, on the verge of marrying his husband, shares his story for the first time about his hidden past fleeing his home country of Afghanistan to Denmark as a refugee.
I mean if that doesn’t strike a chord with the Academy nothing will. At +400 this is definitely worth a play.
Other Bets:
Best Adapted Screenplay: Drive My Car +900
Best Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur +115