Thanksgiving Day Special
A pick and a prop
We’ll keep this short. Thanksgiving is all about over indulging. The stuffing, the mashed potatoes and especially our gambling cards. We’ll get the normal write-up out on Friday morning. For now, enjoy our thoughts on what is a disgusting slate of NFL Football.
Most importantly to subscribers old and new - thank you!
Detroit Déjà vu – Bears @ Lions +3.5 Total 41.5
Here we go again. The Lions at home with another +3.5 point spread. They found themselves in this same position against the Bengals and Eagles. The public said then what they’re saying now: “the Lions get their first win”. As much as we’d love for Matt Nagy’s head coaching career to end at the hands of Dan Campbell’s first W, it’s just not happening. Don’t start your day with the misery of losing money to Andy Dalton. We strongly suggest you choose to spend time with your family rather than bet this game. That’s what a sane person would do. Us? We’ll be holding a Bears ticket and bitching about it every step of the way.
The Pick: Bears ML
The Prop: David Montgomery OVER 75.5 rushing yards
Down but not out in Las Vegas - Raiders @ Cowboys -8 Total 50.5
There are two ways to look at this match-up. Let’s start with the obvious one - the Cowboys bouncing back after their worst offensive performance of the year in Kansas City. Dak threw 2 interceptions and the Boys failed to score a touchdown. The last time they got pummeled was against the Broncos. How did they respond? 43-3 beat down over the Falcons. The public has decided history will repeat itself, as the line opened -7 and has been bet up to -8 with Dallas getting 66% of the tickets. The other way to look at this is you’ve got the Raiders in their ultimate “buy low” spot. They’ve lost 3 straight games and failed to score more than 16 points in any of them. Derek Carr looks defeated. The team has faced a ton of adversity, and its appearing to be too much to overcome. But as contrarian bettors, we love buy low spots. The Cowboys are going to be in everyone’s parlays and teasers. We choose to be on the side of the house in this one.
The Pick: Raiders +8
The Prop: Derek Carr over 1.5 TD passes
A House Divided – Bills @ Saints +4.5 Total 46
Greg and I differ here, so choose your fighter. I like the Bills, he likes the Saints.
Why Bills? They’re the public side, but the public has to eat on Thanksgiving. It should be mentioned that historically favorites do very well on this Holiday. I think the Saints are going to be the “fake sharp play” here and people will chase with the home dog. The Bills are facing desperate times after falling of the rails a bit, but Josh Allen is still +500 to win the MVP for a reason. I think the Bills open up the playbook and let him run more. The Saints just got battered and bruised after facing Philly who ran 40 times for 190 yards on them. Pound Allen and don’t look back.
Why Saints?
Are the Bills pretenders? Absolutely not. Are they hitting a rough patch? Probably. Do they have some gaping holes? Ding, ding, ding! Bills are now 0-3 against teams with a top 20 defense (losses to Steelers, Titans and Colts). Gut says the short turnaround isn’t enough to fix the foundational woes. Should be a much better game than most expect.
The Pick: Bills -4.5 (Brandon)///Saints +4.5 (Greg)
The Prop: Josh Allen OVER 30.5 rushing yards
Egg Bowl - (9-2) #9 Ole Miss @ (7-4) Miss State -1
Always bet an unranked team that’s favored against a ranked team. No reason for Miss St to be favored unless they were going to win.
The Pick: Miss St -1