We’ll keep this short and sweet like the brown sugar going in your sweet potatoes. This weekends picks will still be in your inbox on Friday, but Thanksgiving is a glorious day for NFL bettors. Of course we have to give our best bet for each game.
This Holiday is all about over-indulging, so you can be damn sure we will have a lot more action throughout the day with a second and third serving of player props. Our guy Jovan provided us with his best bet for the newsletter, but be sure to follow us on twitter if you want to keep your units active and see what we’re on.
Bills @ Lions +9.5 Total 54
Our Thanksgiving Day journey begins at 12:30pm. The Bills are playing back-to-back games at Ford Field, so expect a bit of stadium familiarity. The first game of Week 12 is the highest total on the board, and it keeps moving up. Opening at 51.5 and now sitting at 54 should tell you that both the bookmakers and the sharps are expecting these offenses to put up some points.
The Lions are riding high, and are certainly the trendy dog for the day. It’s no surprise that the home team on a 3 game winning streak catching almost double digit points is attracting the majority of the bets. We’re seeing over 60% of the tickets and handle on Detroit, yet the line is moving towards Buffalo.
Normally we would lean towards the Bills in this spot, but a backdoor beat is now how you want to start off your day of gluttony. So let’s avoid that and back them in a different way.
Find a quiet place, sit down, close your eyes, and envision who’s going to eat the turkey leg. For us, it’s impossible not to see Josh Allen taking a down a drumstick after a big game. Last week the Bills were held to six field goals against a bad Browns defense. This week, we think they turn those into touchdowns.
The Pick: Bills Team Total Over 32.5
Giants @ Cowboys -9 Total 45.5
Initially, this number felt too high for Dallas, and caught our eye as we were leaning in their favor. However, maybe it makes more sense, because in their first matchup the Cowboys won in New York with Cooper Rush by a touchdown. After starting 6-1, the Giants have lost 2 of their last 3 by double digits, and it would appear the magic is starting to rub off.
The Cowboys just massacred the Vikings in Minnesota. Despite Dallas developing into one of the best teams in the NFC, we don’t expect them to be an offensive juggernaut week after week. Eventually we do think they’ll pull away in this game and will look for a live line, but the first half is what we’ll be targeting. This isn’t a must win for the Giants, but it’s damn close. We’re trusting in Daboll to come out prepared and keep it close…at least in the beginning.
The Pick: Giants +5.5 1H
Patriots @ Vikings -2.5 Total 42.5
It’s tough to decide which narrative is the right narrative to fade for this game. Here are our options:
1.    Kirk Cousins in Primetime.
2.    The Vikings bounce back.
New England just beat the Jets for the 2nd time in 3 games, and what feels like the 100th time in a row. However, they didn’t do it in a way that gives public bettors confidence in running to the sports book and backing them. The Pats offense was held to just 3 points at home and needed a last minute punt return TD for the win. Mac played fine, but Nick Folk missed 2 field goals. There is still a debate amongst fans (and bettors) that Zappe should be playing over Mac, and I can’t say I disagree.
The Vikings are coming off their second worst home loss ever. The rumblings are only getting louder about how this team might not be as good as their 8-2 record. In fact, they have a total point differential on the season of -2. All of the Vikings wins have been by one possession. What Dallas did was play grown man football, and exposed a defense that hates tackling. The Cowboys were the worst possible matchup for the Vikings after that Bills game, and the Patriots don’t get much better – especially on a short week.
The public are betting on the Vikings bouncing back, as Minnesota is taking in 75% of the bets according to VSIN.com. Yet, the line opened -3 and is now down to -2.5. This tells you that sharps like the dog here, and we agree.
The Pick: Patriots +2.5
Jovans Best Prop Bet @jovan_deeb
Lawrence Cager OVER 16.5 rec yds
In nationally televised games (which obviously all the Thanksgiving slate is), I like to look at the guys with low receiving yards numbers offered. Guys up for 20 or less on PrizePicks usually catch my eye, and Cager is an interesting one. He has bounced back and forth from the practice squad, and now with Daniel Bellinger being out he has received his last possible elevation. He has played 4 games this year, three with the Giants and one with the Jets. With NYG he has had four catches for 29 yards and a TD on six targets, including two for 20 last week.
The Giants struggled to run the ball last week and part of that was because the TEs Cager, Myarick, and Hudson are not effective blocking pieces when defenses load the box. So what will the Giants have to do against an elite Cowboys front seven? Open up the play action, preferably to the guy who is a converted receiver and took 74% of snaps last week compared to the 18% and 16% of Hudson and Myarick. So while I don’t think the volume will be there for Cager to go for 100 yards or anything, I think this line is being offered for a reason and can be very doable in two catches against a Cowboys defense who has been prone to give up this type of production. Catch me riding with the practice squad man on Thanksgiving Day, nothing better than that. (Maybe a little +600 TD sprinkle too)
Are you sending a post Friday? I can't seem to get one yet. Thanks!