This weekends picks will still be in your inbox on Friday, but Thanksgiving is a glorious day for NFL bettors and we like to do something special.
Thanksgiving is all about over-indulging, so you can be damn sure we will have a lot more action throughout the day with a second and third serving of player props. Be sure to follow us on Twitter and the Action Network App for live plays.
Little bit of a different format on this one. We’ll touch on every game and give a favorite bet from each of us. Greg usually handles the majority of the newsletter, but our guy is taking the day off as he is currently in the hospital. No, he’s not injured - he’s a new #girldad! Congrats to our guy on the birth of his beautiful baby girl.
Which means I, The Degenerate, will be taking over today. You’ll probably see a few more F bombs than usual, so I apologize in advance.
These picks aren’t going on our official record. If you have a problem with that you can take it up with corporate . Their email is complaints@suckmyass.com
Enjoy the Holiday!
Thanksgiving Day
Packers at Lions -7.5 Total 47.5
The Packers season was almost over. Sitting on a 3-6 record, they were trailing the Chargers 10-7 in the second quarter when Aaron Jones was carted off with a knee injury. This is one of the youngest and most injured teams in the league - the last thing they needed was their stud veteran RB going down (again). Yet they found a way to perceiver and win the game. Now we aren’t saying Green Bay is good, but at 4-6 in the NFC, they could certainly still somehow find themselves in playoff contention if they win a few games. What last weeks game really showed us is that Brandon Staleys nuts are just smaller than Lafluers. Now, the Pack travel on a short week to face a coach with the biggest set of nuts in the whole league - Dan Campbell.
The Lions are not a fun team to fade. They’ve got an aggressive head coach and quite possibly one of the best offensive coordinators in football. But the defense clearly has issues. One thing we know is the Lions have and still do struggle with mobile quarterbacks. Clearly this wasn’t an issue in week 4 when they went into Green Bay and won 34-20. The Lions scored 27 1H points, the Packers scored 3. Green Bay is the worst 1H offense in the NFL and as much as we’d expect that to change, it’s still Matt Lafleur in charge.
“If you don’t expect too much from me, you might not be let down” - Gin Blossoms
With Jordan Love coming off his best game of the season (27/40 322 2 TD’s 0 INTs) we can’t help but think the Packers might have a little spark of confidence and extra motivation to sneak out a win and stay relevant in the NFC. We successfully faded Detroit last week and really don’t want to get greedy, but 2/3 of the Degen fam have a feeling the Pack might fuck around and win outright. One notable trend is Green Bay keeps games close on the road, as they haven’t lost a road game by more than 4 points.
I’ll personally be looking to target Jordan Love in a player prop. With no Aaron Jones, I don’t really see the running game having much success. Thought about AJ Dillon, but he’s just Najee Harris in sheep’s clothing. Can’t bet on that guy to do anything, plus the Lions have the 2nd best run D in the NFL. Playing Love passing props or any receiver props doesn’t sound like a bad idea, but I think I’m going to bet on Love using his legs to keep the Packers in the game.
Degen’s Best Bet: Jordan Love OVER 15.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
Greg’s Best Bet: Pack ML +310 (.5 Unit)
Steak’s Best Bet: None. Lean Lions and Over
Commanders at Cowboys -12.5 Total 48.5
Are the Commanders dead now, or are they dead after this game? It’s amazing Ron Rivera still has a job. Washington were sellers at the deadline, but then they went out and beat the Patriots in New England, and almost won in Seattle. So clearly, this team still had some fight in them. Unfortunately after those two hard fought games, Washington just got embarrassed at home by the Giants and Tommy DeVito. How the fuck do you bounce back from that? I truly have no idea, but sports are weird, and this is a lot of points.
The question for me is, is this line telling? Double digit points in the NFL is A LOT of respect, especially against a division opponent. The fact that Vegas is setting this line leads me to believe the Commanders don’t stand a chance, but on the flip side, it also makes sense. Dallas is 5-1 ATS this season when the spread is over 6 points, including back to back covers as double digit favorites. However, they are only 1-11 ATS on Thanksgiving. At first I thought Washington was going to be at trendy dog, but now I’m thinking that nobody wants them and it might be the contrarian play. Haven’t heard one person mention the fact that the Commanders are 5-1 ATS on the road. Hmmm…
If we’re capping a game from a football brain perspective - I don’t know how the hell it doesn’t soar over 48.5 points. Washington hates running the ball, Sam Howell can sling it, and the Cowboys love beating up on bad teams. Unders have been cashing at an insane rate in the NFL this season, and we don’t want to be the guys who just think “they’re due!”. We all align on this read and are going to spread it out. Let’s get a little contrarian and a little square.
For a player prop, I’m rocking with Tony Pollard. He finally scored a touchdown against the Panthers last weekend after not getting in the end zone since week 1(!). I think he gets in again and has a nice day on the ground, assuming the Cowboys have the lead and want to establish control of the clock.
Degen’s Best Bet: Over 48.5 & Tony Pollard OVER 64.5 Rushing Yards
Greg’s Best Bet: Commanders +12.5
Steak’s Best Bet: Commanders +12.5 & Over 48.5
49ers at Seahawks +7 Total 43
The BYE week is exactly what the Niners needed. Lost 3 straight heading into it, won 2 straight (and covered) coming out of it. San Fran got healthy and is gaining momentum. Purdy has thrown 3 touchdowns and zero INT’s in back to back games. You know he read all the shit talk on Twitter during the week off.
Meanwhile the Seahawks just lost a heartbreaking game to the Rams and Geno hurt his shoulder. Seattle got swept last season by San Francisco both twice in the regular season and in the playoffs. At home, on a short week, and after a brutal loss, you’d have to imagine Seattle is going to treat this like a “must win” game, which is an angle that has us leaning what feels like a contrarian home dog. The Seahawks are 6-4 and the schedule starts to get pretty tough:
vs Niners
at Cowboys
at Niners
vs Eagles
A win against the top team in the division before a brutal stretch of opponents would be HUGE for this team, and you know that Peter Carroll knows it.
Today feels like a day where your average bettor would be teasing favorites rather than the underdog. In which case, the Lions and Niners just have to win for everyone cash. Is it really going to be that chalky today, or are we getting chaos? That’s the question you have to ask yourself. We think the Hawks and Packers are live dogs, but not 100% sure which one we like most. I personally can’t get to the counter fading Shanahan, but I do think this is a stingy hard fought game. Give me the under.
Degen’s Best Bet: Under 43.5
Greg’s Best Bet: Under 43.5
Steak’s Best Bet: Seahawks +7
Black Friday
Jets at Dolphins +9.5 Total 41
I’m not going to spend too much time on the dog shit Jets, but I do have one thought. I heard Adam Chernoff talk about this on his podcast, and I totally agree - is Tim Boyle really THAT much of a downgrade from Zach Wilson? I don’t think so. It feels like this might be a really big number for a team like the Dolphins who just failed to cover against the Raiders. They moved the ball at will, but couldn’t score. So my question in this game is does Miami clean up the mistakes and start to punch it in? The issue with that is now they’re on the road, in the cold, and against a much better defense. At the same time, we don’t see the Jets offense having much (if any) success, especially with a Dolphins defense that’s looking better under Vic Fangio every week.
Not overthinking this one.
The Pick: Under 41
Happy Thanksgiving!