The 150th Open Championship
@ St Andrews Links
The Swilcan Bridge at St Andrews Golf Course, Scotland
WE’RE BACK FOR THE FOURTH AND FINAL MAJOR…
The Degenerate took a few weeks off from our weekly newsletters after the NBA/NHL seasons ended. Since then, we’ve been putting all of our focus and attention into grinding baseball everyday. If you fancy that sort of thing - follow us on twitter for daily picks and breakdowns:
As we find ourselves in the dog days of summer, the PGA Season delivers a treat this weekend. The last Major in what has been a fun and recently drama filled season.
There are still 6 more tournaments after The Open, but we will officially be closing the chapter on golf write ups after this week. It’s not that we don’t want to bet on the 3M Open and Wyndham Championship (because we absolutely will be), It’s because football season is less than a month away. The first NFL Preseason game is on August 4th, and College Football starts August 27th. Starting next week we’ll be sending out our season preview - starting with the ACC/PAC-12.
In the 2022 golf season we’ve hit two outrights - Scottie 25/1 (WMPO) and Niemann 66/1 (Genesis Invitational). Let’s close it out with a third, shall we?
THE COURSE
We don’t claim or pretend to be anything more than casual golf fans, who mostly enjoy betting on the sport rather than playing it (neither Greg or myself can break 100). Do know that any information given about these tournaments outside of picking a golfer is mainly just regurgitating what we’ve read on golf blogs or heard on podcasts. That’s the beauty of reading this newsletter - we do the legwork for you and consolidate the important details into a few paragraphs.
You may or may have already heard that St Andrews is “the home of golf”, and it quite literally is. This is the oldest golf course in the world. The Open Championship started in 1860, and this will be the 30th time it’s held at St Andrews.
Tiger Woods has said this is his favorite course. If that isn’t the greatest accomplishment given to piece of land, then I don’t know what is. He’s also won twice here. Oh, and the GOAT is back - entering the field at 80/1, and currently 50/1.
“You can hit a damn good shot and find the ball in a damn bad place”
The course is wide open, which means it should be easy to hit fairways. Those with power off the tee are expected to take advantage, as being accurate isn’t quite as important. Big fairways, and big greens too, so just getting on them doesn’t mean much. You can still be left with 70-80 foot putts, and they’re not all flat.
There are 14 par 4’s, half of which are less than 400 yards. Expect players to try and drive a few of these. As bettors, what we want are guys good off the tee, but even better with wedge shots (100 yards and in), and of course ones who can putt.
Players have said the course is playing very firm, and “experts” say this could potentially be the easiest course players have seen all year. The Over/Under at a few books for the winning score is 16.5 under par.
Morikawa won the 2021 Open Championship. Fun fact: we actually cashed him at 30/1, and that’s when the Degen love affair with Morikawa began. Since then, we’ve bet him just about every tournament, and it’s ended in pain. We made this video to constantly remind ourselves that Collin should not be bet until he fixes his putting.
WEATHER
It’s been oddly warm in Scotland, and the course is feeling it. As we mentioned the players have said it’s firm, and there’s a chance for these greens to be “baked”. Does that help or hurt? Depends on who you ask. Older folks are predicting the players go low and eat this course up. Current players, like JT, will be modest and tell you it requires more patience and strategy.
The forecast appears to show a slight advantage to the early Thursday/late Friday wave, as the winds should pickup Thursday evening to around 15-20 mph gusts. Then on Saturday, there’s a chance things get real interesting…
HORSES
JORDAN SPIETH +1800 — Given the chance that things could get weird this weekend, we absolutely want a guy who thrives in the chaos. Spieth opened at 25/1 about a month ago, and has admittedly been heavily bet. As contrarian bettors - that’s not typically our style, but we’re willing to budge here. Jordan has a tournament win on his resume this year, and it was at another links course (Harbor Town). He also finished 2nd in the 2021 Open Championship behind our once beloved prince Morikawa. He shows up on the big stage, finishing top 10 in 4 of the last 6 Opens, and that’s what we’re expecting this weekend from Mr. Spieth.
SHANE LOWRY +2000 — Another familiar name that we’ve been backing the past few months. Unfortunately, Shane just hasn’t been able to pull off a victory this year, but he sure is knocking on the door. Now it should be mentioned that Shane did miss the cut at the US Open back in June. However before that, Shane has finished T25 or better in 11 out of 12 tournaments. Including a solo 2nd, three T3 and T10. Coming off a week of rest after also finishing T10 in the Irish Open. Oh, and he also won The Open in 2019. Shane has excellent irons, tons of experience and been in good form just about all year. That’s the trifecta we want to invest in.
CAM SMITH +2200 — Another trendy pick, but we just can’t help ourselves. We are buying the dip on a player who is unstoppable if his putter gets hot. He peaked after a 3rd place finished at The Masters and victory at The Players, but it would not surprise us at all if he dominated at a course like this. The weakest part of Cams game is his driver, and as we said the fairways are big and open. Although, that doesn’t mean he’s totally in the clear. There are still some hazards, and if the wind gets going, it could throw our boy out of contention. But we like Smith to bounce back after a missed cut at the US Open.
MIDDLE MEN
DUSTIN JOHNSON +3500 — Wouldn’t it be hilarious if a LIV player won the last Major of the year? We think so. For us, it came down to picking either Brooks or DJ, and we went DJ given his previous success. Back in 2015, DJ was the leader halfway through the tournament at St Andrews, which included an opening round of 65. Also, age and experience seem to matter, as 7 of the last 11 Major winners are 32 years and older. DJ checks both of those boxes. He’s also got the power off the tee to take advantage of those drivable par 4’s.
SAM BURNS +4500 — Bit of a homer pick. At 45/1 it surely tells us the books don’t quite respect Burns’ game at this course. He’s very hit or miss, and been mostly miss since his win at the Schwab Challenge in late May. A better play COULD be Finau at around the same number, but we have seen so many people picking Tony, and don’t want to be on him when he’s that trendy. Rather, we’d prefer to take a guy like Burns who appears to be going under the radar. We’ll see if him being slept on was for good reason.
LONG-SHOTS
SEAMUS POWER +6500 — Adding a second Irish Lad to our card along with the Shane Train. Seamus has been sneaky good in big tournaments this year, finishing T27 at The Masters, T9 at the PGA and T12 at the US Open. We’ll throw some pizza money on him now that he’s playing across the pond.
SUNGJAE IM +8000 — Because how could we not…
SAHITH THEEGALA +22500 — Similar to Spieth reasoning, we want guys who make insane shots at this type of course and where chaotic weather could be a factor. Sahith also has two T5 finishes or better in his last 4 tournaments, including T2 at the Travelers where blew a stroke lead to Xander on the 18th hole.
FEATURED CAPPERS
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