Stopped the Bleeding
Now it’s time to turn the corner
College Football has been our Golden Goose, but the season is starting to wind down. No time like Week 11 to get right in the NFL.
We had another Players Only Meeting to discuss the slate. Steak was once again unavailable so we had Matt join. You can listen to The Board Review podcast on Apple and Spotify.
IF YOU’RE GOING TO ANY GAMES THIS WEEKEND BE SURE TO USE PROMO CODE “DEGEN” FOR $20 OFF YOUR FIRST PURCHASE WITH SEATGEEK
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 23-27 (-15.93 Units)
CFB: 42-22-1 (+16.74 Units)
Reminder for tracking purposes: our Best Bets are 2 units (risk)
NFL WEEK 11
Normally we wouldn’t brag about losing the vig and finishing -.35 units on an NFL Sunday, but alas that’s what the 2024 season has been for us. Like any degenerate gambler - we believe after last weekend we finally bottomed out. Now it’s time to make a crypto-like surge for the rest of the season.
Our very own “Degen” went a bit viral this week discussing the state of NFL Football in 2024. Hopefully we see some change this weekend with some massive games (Steelers/Ravens + Chiefs/Bills) but it goes without saying we’re ready for some exciting games as the last few weeks (months?) have been a bit of a dud.
Falcons at Broncos -2 Total 44 (Degen’s Best Bet) YTD: 4-6
You probably already know I have a personal vendetta against the Atlanta Falcons. This stems from being a Bucs fan and being divisional foes, nothing from a sports betting perspective. I put out a video titled “I HATE THE ATLANTA FALCONS” after their very lucky win against the Bucs in Week 5. In my opinion, they’ve had many lucky wins. I have been on record as saying this team is “fraudulent”. Just when I was about to change my mind, they go out and lose to the Saints. Hate to see it!
I digress. In all seriousness, the Falcons offense at times does look very good. I’ve long been a Kirk Cousins fan and have bet on him to win the MVP more times than I’d like to admit. I find myself rooting for Kirk and Raheem Morris to find success. With all that said, look at their schedule. Can’t really find many impressive wins. One thing you also may notice is they’ve been spoiled with A LOT of home games. For the first time all season, they’ll now be playing back-to-back games on the road.
The Denver Broncos have been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL. Kudos to Sean Payont and Bo Nix - both I did not really respect going into the season. They’re 5-5 and 7-3 ATS. Aside from an ass kicking in Baltimore, they’ve been competitive in every game. This is a brutal stretch though, and I think they run out of a bit of gas after almost beating the Chiefs in Kansas City.
To summarize: we’ve got a Fraudulent Atlanta Falcon team (yes I capitalized the F in Fraudulent on purpose) that’s used to being cozy in a dome, going outside to play in high altitude, against a Broncos team that just played 3 road games in 4 weeks, including back to back games against two the top teams in the NFL. Combine those, add to it cold weather, and I think we’ve got ourselves an under sandwich.
The Pick: UNDER 44 (-110)
Chiefs at Bills -2.5 Total 46.5 (Greg’s Best Bet) YTD: 5-5
These games never seem to disappoint. Two of the best QB’s in the post-Brady era and we get another heavy weight bout on Sunday.
Buffalo is 3-1 in the regular season against Kansas City, so seeing them as a favorite in mid-November doesn’t seem as “fishy” to me as it may to other contrarians out there. They have proven that when the stakes are at their lowest they can get the job done. It’s the January matchup that always proves to be challenging.
On the other side, the Chiefs continue to do everything possible to lose a game, yet still end up winning. Last week in Denver was the perfect example. Keep it as close as possible, pray for a miracle. Go 17-0. My hot take from earlier in the year was that this will be the Chiefs 18-1 season. I don’t see them losing a regular season game this year, but that’s not where my action is.
The NFL is dying for this to be a high flying affair, but I think it’s the exact opposite. Unlike past years the Bills not only want to run the ball, but they can be extremely effective doing so.
The Chiefs continue to grind. God forbid they score too many points and pull away. No, they want to keep it tight until it’s absolutely necessary for them to make a play on offense or defense (or a penalty) to seal the win.
Give me a curve ball - low scoring, defensive battle, field goal fest in Buffalo this weekend.
I don’t care who wins, as long as nobody scores 20+.
The Pick: Under 46.5 (-110) Fanduel
Rams at Patriots +4.5 Total 43.5 (Steak’s Best Bet) YTD: 2-8
Steak hates the Rams. And when you need a win, play the ace up your sleeve.
The Patriots defense has quietly been figuring it out after being called out by soon to be fired Head Coach Jerrod Mayo. Drake Maye is developing, but seems to offer a ton of promise as “the guy” in New England going forward.
Despite their loss on Monday Night, people still love the Rams. Sex Appeal. Sean McVay and Stafford offer it in spades and Rookie Jared Verse is a specimen to watch. But Steak says Maye is mobile enough to cause some real issues.
With the Rams traveling cross county on a short week Steaks is going Pats to cover a number that feels all too easy for the Rams.
The Pick: Patriots +4.5 (-105)
Raiders at Dolphins -7 Total 44.5
This is the time for the Dolphins. After another Tua concussion and a terrible start they simply can’t afford any missteps.
There’s reason to be optimistic for Fins fans after a big win in LA. Sitting at 3-6 they have a very reasonable schedule down the stretch and are likely starting to believe they can make some noise.
The one problem with that is that this team is puppy dog shit soft.
Going into their BYE week the Raiders fired OC Luke Getsy, which does’t mean much. But it could be enough to light a spark under a team that’s been left for dead.
The only thing the Raiders have is the one thing the Dolphins don’t. GRIT!
The Pick: Raiders +7.5 (-115) BetMGM
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 11
You can rewatch the stream with Degen, Steak and Jovan here:
Texas at Arkansas +13.5 Total 57.5
Arkansas is coming off a BYE after giving up 63 points to Ole Miss. Texas almost put up a 50 burger against Florida last week, but also got a little sloppy on defense towards the end of the game once it was out of hand. Steak thinks we see a very solid focus put on the defensive side of the football by both coaching staffs, leading to both offenses struggling.
The Pick: UNDER 57.5 (-110)
Tulane at Navy +7
The Green Wave are not a fun team to fade. Sitting at 8-2 SU and ATS, they just won their last two games by a combined score of 86-9. Very impressive season, but that only works to their disadvantage here, as we think Navy will be even more up for this game. The Midshipmen had two bumpy weeks losing to Notre Dame and Rice, but bounced back with a 28-7 win against USF. This is their home finale, where they’re also 4-0 (3-1 ATS). Not ideal for Tulane to go from playing bottom of the barrel teams like Charlotte and Temple to playing a disciplined military academy on its senior day.
The Pick: Navy +7 (-110)
Michigan State at Illinois -2.5
After a 3-0 start, Michigan State lost 5 of its last 6. Illinois has lost its last two including a tough one at home to Minnesota the week before their BYE. Both of these teams overachieved early in the season, and now the party is dying down. Dare we say this line is a little short? Something tells us Sparty is looking to play spoiler again.
The Pick: Michigan St +2.5 (-110) - BetMGM
Syracuse at Cal -8.5
We both successfully faded Syracuse and successfully backed Cal last weekend. Thought about not being greedy…but fuck it. Cal scored late when they had no business covering against Wake, but we’ll take it. Syracuse looked dead from the start but did show some fight against BC. Ultimately, we thought Cuse would start to fade last week, and we are going to lean into that a bit more with a cross country road game in Berkley. Especially after they just had to stop the run 51 times. It’s a big number, but we think Cal makes it nasty.
The Pick: Cal -8.5 (-115) - Fanduel
LSU at Florida +4
Ding dong the witch is (almost) dead. It would appear Brian Kelly is on his last legs at LSU. What better place for the death blow to be delivered than in the Swamp? Somehow someway, Billy Napier has revived the Gators season as much as you can for a team with a 4.5 win total. They need to win 2 of their last 3 to make a bowl game. With FSU the last game of the season, that means they’ll need to beat LSU or Ole Miss. Jovan says they win one of those games, and we think the best chance is against this spiraling LSU team. Young QB DJ Lagway has shown some serious promise, although we’re not sure if he’s going to be playing in this game. Regardless, we think Florida can do enough to keep it tight with LSU, who has looked beyond disappointing offensively.
The Pick: Florida +4
Nebraska at USC -9 Total 50.5
We are admittedly tailing Jovan here as this may have been the best sell job form Wednesdays stream. Watch the YouTube video above at the 1:50 mark.
The Pick: OVER 50.5 (-110) - BetMGM
Baylor at West Virginia +2.5
This is strictly a fade of West Virginia. They are riding high after two road wins at Arizona and Cincinnati. Jovan and Steak both agree that the Mountaineers will be a trendy dog, and the time to sell is now after this backup QB finds himself going viral
The Pick: Baylor ML (-115) - Draftkings
RECAP:
NFL
Falcons/Broncos UNDER 44 (-110) - Degen’s Best Bet
Chiefs/Bill UNDER 46.5 (-110) - Greg’s Best Bet - Fanduel
Patriots +4.5 (-105) - Steaks Best Bet
Raiders +7.5 (-115) - BetMGM
CFB
Texas/Arkansas UNDER 57.5 (-110)
Navy +7 (-110)
Michigan St +2.5 (-110)
Cal -8.5 (-115) - Fanduel
Florida +4 (-110)
Nebraska/USC OVER 50.5 (-110)
Baylor ML (-115) - Draftkings