The Best Month of the Year
NFL Week 5 & College Football Week 6
That’s four weeks of football down
Onward to October
And just like that, we’re in the thick of it. September is over. Baseball Playoffs are in full force, and the NHL and NBA are right around the corner. It’s October baby!
One of the best months of the year for sports gambling is just getting started. We’ll be with you every step of the way. NHL and NBA previews with our favorite future bets will be in your inbox soon. We will also discuss on The Board Review next, which is now a podcast if you can’t tune in live.
College Football has been great, but we’ve hit a bit of a rough patch in the NFL. For what it’s worth - our gambling style tends to do better as the season progresses. Next week we’ll introduce our first Map Play.
Lotta season left. Sit back enjoy the fall foliage.
IF YOU’RE GOING TO ANY GAMES THIS WEEKEND BE SURE TO USE SEATGEEK PROMO CODE “DEGEN” FOR $20 OFF YOUR FIRST PURCHASE
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 11-10 (+.83 Units)
CFB: 20-9 (+9.01 Units)
NFL WEEK 5
Better than our Week 3 performance, but consecutive weeks of chipping away from our early season stockpile of units is not what we were hoping for.
The last two weeks felt tough, but this week is a bit different. We feel pretty good about the board. But not too good. Never too good. Whenever you feel too good, it’s a sign you’re about to get washed. We’ve been through the wringer. No better time to course correct than with a Pumpkin Spice Latte. (← Just want it on record that I, Degen, hate Pumpkin Spiced Lattes. I doubt Steak likes them. This is a Greg take)
Jets vs. Vikings -2.5 Total 40.5 (Degen’s Best Bet) YTD: 1-3
There’s one word to describe this bet. That word is ‘Familiarity’.
fa·mil·iar·i·ty (noun) - close acquaintance with or knowledge of something.
I just want to make that clear, because I am not someone who’s eager to put money against what Kevin O’Connell and Sam Darnold are doing in Minnesota. I love a good underdog story, and do believe they might be as good as their 4-0 record.
I’m also not entirely sure the Jets are a good football team at the moment. I am trying my best not to put my money on teams that aren’t very good, but at my core, that’s just not how I gamble. I like to buy teams at their lowest, and sell teams at their highest. That’s sort of what we have here in this matchup.
The Jets just lost to the Denver Broncos as 7.5 point favorites. They didn’t score a touchdown and held Bo Nix to -7 yards passing in the first half. Meanwhile, the Vikings are 4-0 and just beat their divisional rival on the road in Green Bay. But after watching the games, there’s another angle that I’m leaning into, given the location and potential weather conditions of this game in London, and that’s…FAMILIARITY.
There’s a 55% chance of rain and winds are expected to be ~15 mph. The Jets just played a game in miserable weather conditions, and it gave them all sorts of fits. Garrett Wilson fumbled on the third play of the game, the offense was penalized 13 times, and Rodgers was seen limping off the sideline at the end of the game. As bad as it was last week for the Jets - I think that experience will only benefit them this week against a dome team who hasn’t been as tested by Mother Nature.
From an X’s and O’s standpoint, the Jets will also see a familiar defensive style and scheme. The Broncos blitz at the highest rate of any team in the NFL. Guess who’s second? That’s right - Brian Flores and the Vikings!
Familiar is as familiar does. I am hopeful the Jets are able right their wrongs.
The Pick: Jets +2.5 (-105)
Cowboys at Steelers -1.5 Total 43.5 (Greg’s Best Bet) YTD: 4-0
Unstoppable force meet unmovable object. Dak is one of the better QB’s in Primetime with a record of 24-11. Mike Tomlin sports an even better record at 27-8. Somethings gotta give. Dak is great, but Tomlin is better.
If you read our preseason write-ups we talked about some of the major issues the Cowboys might face this year. If you didn’t, here’s a quick recap:
Mike Zimmer as D Coordinator
Lack of Depth
Let talk Zimmer first. The Cowboys allowed 20.2 points per game in 2023. This year (small sample size) they’re already up to 26. Sure, you could say that’s a bit skewed from the 44 points by the Saints, but two of their four opponents featured Deshaun Watson and Daniel Jones. The house that Dan Quinn built is crumbling.
Now let’s talk depth. Injuries are starting to pile up:
The problem with the Cowboys was never about talent - it was about what happens when the top line of starters takes on a wave of injuries. Who is going to step up? Is Mike Zimmer going to be able to create an effective scheme with limited man power? Survey says…no.
Full disclosure: I am a Steelers fan, and I love where they sit after the first month. Good, certainly not great. Strong, but not too strong. Baby bear porridge: just right.
Their loss last week felt inevitable. The Fields hype was starting to be a bit too much. They needed a shot of reality, and they got it.
I think we see a heavy dose of runs and a wacky Arthur Smith game plan that includes Corradelle Patterson and Darnell Washington. Dak can absolutely pick apart this defense, so it’s up to the offense to milk the clock and limit his impact.
Gimme Tomlin with a little bit of revenge from Super Bowl XLV against Mike McCarthy.
The Pick: Steelers ML (-135) FD
Packers at Rams +3 Total 48.5 (Steak’s Best Bet) YTD: 2-2
Ask yourself one question…
How funny would it be if the Packers went 0-3 with Jordan Love and 2-0 with Malik Willis.
Steak’s book of wisdom: The best coaches rise up to the occasion.
McVay is backed into a corner at 1-3, and the season feels as though it’s slipping away. Matt Stafford’s best weapons remain sidelined. This isn’t a rallying point where the Rams turn it around and win the Super Bowl, but it’s a week where they fend off death for another seven days.
What does Steak say to the God of Death? NOT TODAY!
The Pick: Rams +3 (-105) FD
Panthers at Bears -3.5 Total 41.5
Andy Dalton came on the scene with an explosion in Vegas. He followed it up with a fine performance in Charlotte. Now it’s time for the dud in Chicago.
We like buying bad news, but not with Carolina. The Panthers D is racking up injuries and we’re not sure this offense can keep up their recent resurgence. The Bears defense is a far better unit than what Dalton just faced against the Raiders and Bengals.
Caleb Williams continues to progress. He’s not blowing anyone away, but he’s making better reads and smarter decisions week over week. More importantly, with stellar defensive play and a solid run game, he’s not being asked to be a savior.
Just get better, manage the game, and make a play or two.
Eventually he’s due to have a stretch of bad games, but we don’t think it’s going to be at home against the Panthers. Not when all the focus is on Jayden Daniels as the Rookie QB to watch.
The Pick: Bears -3.5 (110) DK
Come on Over, Over: Colts at Jaguars Over 45.5
Degen circle of trust: we were dangerously close to playing the Jags this week. The problem is that even through they’re 0-4, you aren’t getting any bit of a discount from the oddsmakers. Just can’t lay 3 points with bozo Doug Peterson in a divisional game.
It’s not often the only remaining team without a win finds themselves laying a field goal one month into the season, but the Colts are battered and bruised. Their defense is missing multiple starters. Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor are both 50/50 to play. Just too much bad news to go against for either side.
Rumors are swirling that Doug may have lost the locker room. Could be true, but if his time is up in Jax, he’s not going down without putting up some P-O-I-N-T-S!
The Jags got nothing to lose. Joe Flacco has more lives than a black cat on Halloween. Both teams are getting a bit desperate, which means it’s time to open up the playbook.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 6
If you want to watch our entire College Football preview from The Board Review, you can do so on the YouTube page.
FRIDAY NIGHT BONUS PLAYS:
Syracuse at UNLV -6.5 Total 58.5
Do you remember an under we played back in week 2 in the Pac-12 after dark? It was Texas Tech on the road at Washington St. Both teams combined for a billion points the week prior. It was our “nasty” total that we like to get in on, fading the most obvious side. The same logic applies here.
UNLV’s QB and RB left the program last week, and the team responded by putting up 59 points against Fresno St. Now you’ve got Kyle McCord coming into town who’s led a Syracuse offense to score 30+ points in 3/4 games. Another thing we’re leaning into is that this is Syracuse’s first road game. We think these offense are a little sluggish under the Friday Night Lights.
The Pick: UNDER 58.5 (-115) FD
Pitt at UNC +3
We aren’t known for getting CLV, but we got some last week with the Tar Heels, and that was the difference between a winning bet and a losing bet. Can’t lie, it felt good! UNC got up to a 20-0 lead at Duke, then lost 21-20. We got the +2.5 and cashed. Now they come back home and face a Pitt team that’s not only 4-0 straight up, but 4-0 ATS.
As Steak so eloquently puts it…”who the fuck wants to back North Carolina here?” Tell ya what - I certainly don’t! But we’re doing it. Also something I tend to like is fading College teams (basketball included) off of a BYE. I know it’s typically thought of as an advantage with extra rest and preparation, but I think these young kids prefer to use the time to play Fortnite and go party. That’s what I would probably do, especially if I was 4-0 walking around campus like a king.
The Pick: UNC +3 (-115) BetMGM
Purdue at Wisconsin -13.5
I’ve been saying it for three weeks now, and yet I keep caving. Trying to avoid big favorites because they haven’t been treating us well all year. Especially ones at home. However, I just can’t pass this up, and there are a few reasons why.
Let’s start with Purdue. I officially put this team on my “fade” list after their 66-7 loss against Notre Dame. It wasn’t because of the score, but rather the coaching. I thought this guy running the show in West Lafayette was a total clown playing his starters down 50 points in the 4th quarter. In addition to that, Hudson Card is just terrible, and they lack playmakers. Purdue has gone on to lose and failed to cover the following two games since the Irish ass kicking. I say more of the same.
On the flip side, I also want to bet on the Badgers. This feels like a perfect spot for their offense to erupt. It was a bit underwhelming to start the season with Tyler Van Dyke, and it’s unfortunate that he’s injured, but I think this backup QB will do just fine. He was in the system last year and saw some playing time then. I thought the Badgers did well enough on the road at USC, just couldn’t hang on. Wisconsin has yet to score more than 28 points this season. This total is low, but the spread is high. I say Badgers win this something like 38-7.
The Pick: Wisconsin -13.5 (-105) FD
Rutgers at Nebraska -6.5
Rutgers is off to a nice 4-0 start and just came through for us last Friday night. Unfortunately for the Jersey faithful, they just can’t keep getting away with it. Washington outplayed them at every level, but missed 3 field goals and Rutgers was able to hold on. I’ll also give them credit for being tested on the road with a win at Virginia Tech. Some teams (Michigan) haven’t even played a road game yet. Pathetic! Anyways, I digress. The biggest problem for Rutgers is they’re going into Lincoln and facing a Nebraska team that blew it against Illinois the last time they played in front of the their home fans. I feel that adds a little extra motivation to this game.
The Huskers just survived their first road test at Purdue. It was an ugly start, but that’s to be expected with a true freshmen at QB. I was impressed at them being able to wake up late and not only win, but cover the double digit spread. This just has Nebraska skull fuck written all over it in our opinion.
The Pick: Nebraska -6.5 (-125) Fanduel
UCF at Florida +2.5
The Gators have been underdogs in the swamp twice already this season, and twice they got their asses kicked. Could we be late to the party and getting duped here going for a third time? Perhaps. But the Knights just got embarrassed at home by Colorado. Losing outright as a 14 point favorite - while Florida just came off their best showing of the season at Miss St - has us thinking not many people will be running to lay points with UCF on the road. UF is also coming off a BYE, and as we mentioned earlier, we like to fade that. Prefer to have our money on the pissed off opponent eager to get back on the field and get the losing taste out of their mouths.
The Pick: UCF -2.5 (-115)
South Alabama at Arkansas St +3
Okay so remember everything we said about not betting on teams after a BYE? Well that’s what we’re doing here with Ark St (lol). Before you call us hypocrites, let us explain why this is an exception. South Alabama is playing their third road game in a row, and fourth in five weeks. Not to mention they put up 48 points in a nationally televised game against App State and attracted the betting publics attention. USA followed that up by failing to cover at LSU. This is less of a bet on Arkansas St, and more a fade on South Alabama. The scheduling spot is just brutal.
The Pick: Arkansas St +3 (-110)
RECAP:
NFL
Jets +2.5 (-105) DK - Degen’s Best Bet
Steelers ML (-135) FD - Greg’s Best Bet
Rams +3 (-105) FD - Steak’s Best Bet
Bears -3.5 (110) DK
Colts Jags OVER 45.5 (-115) DK
CFB
Syracuse/UNLV UNDER 58.5 (-115) FD
UNC +3 (-115) BetMGM
Wisconsin -13.5 (-105) FD
Nebraska -6.5 (-125) FD
UCF -2.5 (-115)
Arkansas St +3 (-110)