Stumbling out the gate
Firing into Week 2
It’s been said that the journey of 1,000 miles begins with a single step.
Our first step was in a big pile of dog poop.
0-3 in the NFL and 1-2 in College. The good news is there is A LOT of season left.
Keeping the card a bit light for now, but it will certainly pick up once we get into the meat of the season.
If you missed The Degenerate Hour last night - we hit a lovely TD Parlay to set the tone for the weekend. Link below and join us next week!
Join us every Thursday for The Degenerate Hour. We will be breaking down every angle and digging into every betting market available for Thursday Night Football. Live on Pikkit YouTube Channel at 7pm EST
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 0-3 (-3 Units)
CFB: 1-2 (-1.09 Units)
NFL WEEK 1
Jaguars at Bengals -3.5 Total 49.5 (Degen’s Best Bet)
Watch the video before reading the write up.
I told myself this weekend we have two once in a lifetime opportunities. I don’t think both of them are going to come through, which is why I have to decide between the Bengals offense bouncing back, or the Detroit Lions bouncing back. It wasn’t an easy decision…but I’m going with the Bengals. Let me give you a few reasons why:
Yes, I am fully aware the Bengals are notorious for starting slow. They are no stranger to 0-2 records, but this was an emphasis in the offseason by coach Zac Taylor. He had his guys playing full quarters in the preseason to avoid this from happening again. We saw the Bengals get off to a decent start last week against the Browns, but then they completely stalled - only accounting for 6 yards in the second half. INSANE.
Dare I say, that was more to do about the Browns defense than the Bengals offense? Not to mention - Cleveland has Burrows number, for whatever reason. I think Cleveland will go over their 5.5 win total and be a tough team on anyones schedule.
Not here to say the Bengals are good, but I think they are better than the Jaguars. I’m not doing any sort of reacting to the Jags after their Week 1 win against the Panthers. Carolina looked bad because they are bad. Kudos to the Jags for taking care of business. I think I’d much rather buy into the Bengals after surviving that scare on the road against the divisional opponent than Jacksonville after a comfortable win against an inferior team.
First year HC Liam Coen will be matched up with first year Bengals DC Al Golden. The Bengals need to improve this defense, and I expect them too. Shutting down Trevor Lawrence will be a good test that I think they pass. Nothing about the Jags defense scares me. The Bengals O line isn’t great, but Josh Hines-Allen was much more intimidating before the hyphen.
I read Travis Hunter is expected to play some more snaps on defense this week. That’s cute. Add Ja’Marr Chase 200+ receiving yards to my card. WHO DEY!
The Pick: Bengals -3 (-120 Fanatics)
Broncos at Colts +1.5 Total 43.5 (Greg’s Best Bet)
Let me start this by clarifying that I am not a BOliever. I think the promise is there, but he’s still probably a couple of years away from taking a big step, if that day ever comes.
I am, however, a huge buyer on the Broncos Defense. Last week they didn’t allow a touchdown and held the Titans to under 200 yards of total offense. Listen, I get it. It was a rookie QB making his debut at high altitude. But the offense did them no favors. They kept shooting themselves in the foot and had FOUR turnovers. Time and time again the defense stepped up and prevented the Titans from ever making a real threat of an upset.
I think they threw a bit too much at Nix and confused his simple mind. Shake off the rust young Bo, and get back out there.
Now, the Broncos head to Indy where they’re a short favorite.
Danny Dimes looked phenomenal in his opener and the Colts might be legit. But maybe.. just maybe, the Dolphins are the worst team in the NFL.
In additon to his passing stats Danny also rushed for 2 TD’s.
Despite all the Dolphins problems on offense, De’Von Achane still averaged nearly 8 yards per carry. Unfortunately they dug themselves in an early hole and had to abandon the run game early.
With one of the best offensive lines, I think the Broncos go ground and pound and exploit a weak Colts front 7.
If I lose a bet at the hands of another great Daniel Jones performance, so be it. We are in for an ugly game of football. And in a gross game, give me a significantly better defense and stronger run game.
The Pick: Broncos ML (-120 FD)
Seahawks at Steelers -2.5 Total 39.5 (Steak’s Best Bet)
Sam Darnold was bad. If it wasn’t for some very bad decisions/throws by Brock Purdy this game wouldn’t have been close. Along with Purdy’s mistakes, Jake Moody kicked himself out of a job.
The Steelers had one of their worst defensive performances in recent memory (at least in the regular season). Allowing 32 points to the New York Jets. Jets rookie Armand Membou was the highest rated linemen in the league and the entire O-line took the Steelers by surprise.
The Seahawks line is not capable of a similar performance.
Give me a defensive bounce back in a big way.
The Pick: Under 39.5 (-105 DK)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 3
Betting this sport is about betting on “spots”. The lookahead spot, the letdown spot, and the sandwich spot – when you’re coming off a big win (letdown) and before a big matchup (look ahead). As the season progresses, we will be leaning into these more and more. I’ll be identifying each of them throughout the week on our website.
You can watch Steak and Degen breakdown the entire CFB board on our YouTube page (video below). Please give it a like and subscribe!
Oregon at Northwestern +28
I’ll admit we aren’t the biggest Dan Lanning guys. I mean, we were, but then he got punked by Ohio State in the playoff last year, and that was a tough look. But one thing he can do is run up the score against a team that runs their mouth. The Ducks beat Colorado 42-6 back in 2023, and are coming off a 69-3 win against Oklahoma State after Mike Gundy chirped the cost of their roster.
This isn’t a smart bet, but we’re not smart guys. What we’re leaning into here is a combination of a former Pac 12 school playing in unfamiliar territory like Northwestern, and also buying into the Wildcats getting up for this game as they host a top ranked opponent.
When Oregon went to West Lafayette to play Purdue last year, they won 35-0. For the majority of that game it was a 2-3 score lead. Purdue was another level of bad. Even though Northwestern got whooped 23-3 in their opener against Tulane, we think the just ran into a buzz saw after giving them some motivation. We feel QB Preston Stone and this Northwestern offense are capable of scoring a few points and keeping it within the number.
The Pick: Northwestern +28 (-110)
Memphis at Troy +3.5
Memphis has had a nice, steady start to the season. Playing small schools and covering double digit spreads. They haven’t been challenged, but they have been able to fine tune. Now they’re going on the road for their first test of the season against a Troy team who just hung with Clemson.
Troy had a 16-0 lead at halftime before it turned in to a 27-16 Clemson victory. Still impressive from a 31-point underdog on the road. We think it’s going to be hard to follow that up against a team who’s been preparing for this matchup for the last two weeks. Memphis’ QB has seen playing time at Colorado and Nevada. He’s in his fifth year with tons of experience and don’t think he’s going to be rattled by a road game in Troy (no offense).
The Pick: Memphis -3.5 (-110)
Georgia at Tennessee +4 Total 50.5
This has been a one-sided rivalry. Georgia is 13-2 against Tennessee since 2010, outscoring them by 237 points. But this doesn’t quite feel like your usual dominant Georgia team. They have been as slept on as I can remember in the Kirby Smart era. Probably because they were an early out in last years Playoff, and QB Carson Beck left for Miami. Not sure anyone really trusts Gunnar Stockton just yet. This is his chance to shine. The question is will he?
We don’t think so. Steak and I both were leaning Tennessee here, but anytime Georgia gets doubted or faded, they come out pissed off and make us all look stupid. We do want to buy into these offenses struggling and are going with the under.
Joey Aguilar has looked damn good as the new Vols QB replacing Nico. Tennessee has scored 117 points in its first two games. The problem is they came against Syracuse and Eastern Tennessee St. Huge step up in class with Georgia this week.
Not sure who wins, but we are expecting a dogfight.
The Pick: Under 50.5 (-110) BetMGM
Texas A&M at Notre Dame -6.5
The Irish potentially have their Playoff hopes on the line and it’s only week 2. The schedule gets very soft after this, and after losing to Miami in week 1, a win against Texas A&M is about a “must have” as you can get. And we think they get it.
I was very disappointed with Notre Dames conservative game plan in Miami. Not taking away anything from the Hurricanes, as they were very impressive and the better team, but ND keeping the training wheels on CJ Carr was pathetic. There is no reason you go with the “gun slinger” as your QB if you’re not going to let him fire off some bullets. ND threw just two passes over 20 yards, and could not get Jeremiyah Love going all night. But I think that performance was a blessing in disguise for the remainder of this season. I don’t anticipate ND being timid offensively. I think they come out firing on all cylinders, even if it’s just CJ’s second start.
The Irish defense does concern me. They got pushed around by a very good and very big Miami O line. New DC Chris Ash was also unimpressive in his debut. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Aggies find the endzone, but I don’t think they keep up with ND. South Bend can be a weird place for an SEC team who’s not familiar playing there, especially one with a QB who isn’t as good on the road. Last year, Texas A&M lost their last two road games of the season against SC (44-20) and Auburn (43-41). That was a BAD Auburn team too.
Irish get right on the big stage against a big opponent.
The Pick: Notre Dame -6.5 (-110)
RECAP:
NFL
Bengals -3 -120 (Degen Best Bet)
Broncos ML -120 ( Gregs Bets Bet)
Steelers/Seahawks UNDER 39.5 -110 (Steaks Best Bet)
CFB
Northwestern +28 (-110)
Memphis -3.5 (-110)
Georgia/Tennessee UNDER 50.5 (-110)
Notre Dame -6.5 (-110)