Never fun to full fade, especially in one on the biggest weekends of the year. Three more games and two more NFL newsletters to get right and end on a high note.
Little bit of a different format this week. We’ll give you a breakdown, then each of our best bets for Conference Championship games.
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 56-43-1 (+7.33 Units)
CFB: 41-42-2 (-4.86 Units)
The Divisional Round
Chiefs at Ravens -3.5 Total 44.5
Degen
I know it’s silly to say the Chiefs just won their Super Bowl, and that’s not at all what I’m saying. But there definitely is another level of meaning and emotion when Buffalo and Kansas City take the field. That was an all out battle, and in unfamiliar territory, as Patrick Mahomes won and covered his first road playoff game. The Bills offense was firing on all cylinders early, but stalled late. One thing that stood out to me is Buffalo ran the ball 39 times. I think this KC defense might be in a bad spot early in their game with Baltimore. We saw the Ravens come out sluggish in their 1H, having only scored 10 points and being tied with Houston. Lamar and Co were able to make some adjustments and finish the game with 34 points. I think the Ravens win, but I don’t want to deal with Mahomes late game (potential) heroics. Give me the Ravens to come out fast: Ravens 1H -3.5 (-130).
Dino
I can easily convince myself that the Ravens -3.5 is showing a ton of respect. Baltimore has been the best team in the AFC this year, Lamar is going to win the MVP and the Ravens Defense is phenomenal. Granted the Chiefs looked impressive against the Dolphins and the Bills, but in both of those games the opposing D had some serious injuries. Not the case for Baltimore. The thing I just keep coming back to is that in order to take the Ravens, I have to fade Patrick Mahomes at. Never a good look. At the end of the day I see the Ravens winning on a later FG, and I also lean towards the under. So why not back Justin Tucker O7.5 points.
Steak
The old double reverse jinx. Now that sports gambling has become mainstream the “fading the public” narrative is as strong as ever. A LOT of the data out there is untrustworthy to say the least.
In a regular season of Unders, Steak says it’s a postseason of Overs. Over 44.5
Official Pick: None
Lions at 49ers -7 (-120) Total 51.5
Degen
Last week I backed the Niners offense and Joe Barry got the best of me. How fitting that he gets fired shortly after stealing my units. Fucker. Anyways, it’s clear the Packers defense benefited from not only the rain, but Deebo Samuel getting injured. His status for this weekends game is not certain, but it looks like he might play. Honestly, he doesn’t even need to be 100% or even touch the ball - just have him in there to be a decoy. If Deebo is on the field, I think the Lions defense is going to be in for a very long day. The Niners also shook off the rust after the BYE week (similar to Baltimore) and I expect their offense to make less mistakes and execute much better.
On the other side of the ball, you know if the Lions go down, they are going down swinging. Jared Goff played a near perfect game last week against Tampa. Detroit’s execution is so good, and they rarely make mistakes. But now they’re on the road and not in a dome, but I still am not sure I really respect this Niners defense. I expect the Lions run game to have success, and that should open up the passing game for Goff. Ultimately, I think the Niners win and barely cover, but one thing I do see is points. My score prediction for this game is Niners 37 Lions 27. Give me the Over 51.5.
Dino
I’ve been on the Niners train for awhile this season and hope to cash them at +330 to win the NFC. I might hedge, I should hedge, but I really want to double down on them.
This Lions run has been impressive, but they have been out-gained in both playoff games. They are also 2/2 on 4th and Goal plays. I’m not calling it luck, because Campbell had the guts to go for it and the team executed the plays at critical moments. But If you play with fire long enough you are going to get burned. I think the 49ers had their rust game in the rain, and are ready to take advantage of a weak Lions secondary. With our without Deebo. 49ers - 7.
Steak
2024 is the year of Michigan. Steak cashed some big tickets on the Wolverines throughout the CFB Playoffs and has been riding the Lions as a result. This team of underdogs just continues to get it done and Steak isn’t backing down now. Lions +7.
Official Pick: Over 51.5 (-110)
RECAP:
NFL
Lions / 49ers Over 51.5 (-110)