Dogs barked in the Wildcard Round and The Degenerate didn’t capitalize.
We went 1-2, but now’s not the time to lick out wounds. We have another (and final) weekend stacked with big games and we are ready to dive in.
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 56-40-1 (+10.33 Units)
CFB: 41-42-2 (-4.86 Units)
The Divisional Round
Packers at 49ers -9.5 Total 50.5 (Degen’s Best Bet)
I know what you’re thinking. “Degen, you’re not fading Joe Barry again, are you?” And like the Kool Aid Man, I barge through your fucking door and say OHH YEAH!
There are right reads and wrong results, or wrong reads and right results. My best bet last weekend was the Cowboys over 29.5 TT which was indeed a wrong read with the right result. In other words, I got extremely lucky, but sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. So am I being stubborn or too greedy going back to fading this peckerhead Packers DC? Maybe…maybe not…
“Don’t push the maybe, baby” - Major Payne
Look, I don’t need to go too in-depth as to why I want to bet on the 49ers to score points. I don’t need to name all their weapons and their head coach. You know what they’re capable of, and despite the forecast showing rain, I think this offense is going to be firing on all cylinders. The Niners got the 1 seed and a BYE week. Do you remember what happened after their BYE week during the season? They came out in Jacksonville and won 34-3. This is a team that felt Super Bowl worthy last year, and fell victim to the early Brock Purdy elbow injury in Philly. Barring another freak injury, I don’t think these guys are going to squander this opportunity, and certainly not against a young and inexperienced team like the Green Bay Packers.
The forecast shows heavy rain all week and on game day, but winds are only expected to be 10-15 mph. I say the wetter the better. Trying to tackle CMC, Deebo or Kittle in sloppy conditions sounds rough. I can already see the 6.7 yards per rush for the 49ers now. My one concern? Aaron Jones. He was held out of the majority of the regular season with the hamstring injury, and because of that will benefit in the playoffs. He ran for 118 yards and 3 TD’s against Dallas. If the Packers run the ball with success, that’s not ideal for their opponents TT as the offense won’t be on the field as often.
My thinking is either the Niners get out to an early lead and GB has to abandon the run, or they stack the box and force Jordan Love to beat them. Love and this healthy receiving core have been deadly, but this is also their 4th road game in 5 weeks. I don’t know what the fuck happened in Dallas, but I won’t take any credit away from what they were able to accomplish. There’s no Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott this weekend. I think the Packers are in for a long game. 35-14 final sounds about right.
The Pick: 49ers Team Total Over 30.5 (-115)
Buccaneers at Lions -6.5 Total 48.5 (Dino’s Best Bet)
Two of the scrappiest teams of the 2023 NFL Season face off in the capital of American Grit. We’ve got a lot to look forward too. Both QBs have been left for dead at one time or another in their career, but they fought back and now one of them will get into the NFC Championship.
This line feels right and despite heavily leaning toward the Buccaneers, I have more interest in the total.
Let’s start with the Lions offense. Yes, they had a massive win over the Rams last week. They scored a total of 24 points. After a red hot start of 21 points on their first three drives, the offense sputtered putting up 3 points on the next five possessions. This Buccaneers defense is significantly better than the Rams D now that they are healthy. As much as people want to praise Tom Brady for his seventh Super Bowl Win, a lot of these guys on the current Bucs defense had a ton to do with that run. Todd Bowles is going to blitz and Jared Goff will likely struggle. If there is one thing the Bucs are able to do (when healthy) it’s shut down the opponents run game. I think this leads to a gritty showing and even if the Lions connect on a few big plays the Buccaneers will limit the damage.
Now for the Bucs offense. Yes, Baker just put up 30+ against the Eagles and made me eat my words about him again. But what about the weeks before that?
Home vs. New Orleans: 13 points
At Carolina: 9 points
Detroits defense is the definition of bend don’t break. Just look at some of the QB stats and opponent totals:
Wildcard Round: Matt Stafford - 367 yards; 23 Points
Week 18: Nick Mullens - 396 yards; 20 Points
Week 17: Dak Prescott - 345 yards; 20 Points
Week 16: Nick Mullens - 411 yards; 24 Points
Get the picture? Despite letting teams move the ball at will the Lions have found a way to tighten up in the red zone and limit the damage, and I expect them to do more of the same this weekend.
The Pick: Under 48.5 (-110)
Chiefs at Bills -2.5 Total 45.5 (Steaks Best Bet)
11:40 PM. April 15th, 1912. The worlds largest, most luxurious, and technologically advanced ship - The Titanic hits an iceberg. The unthinkable happens and Captain Edward J. Smith goes down with his ship
6:30 PM. January 21, 2024. Steak has been heavily invested in the Bills from the jump. Josh Allen MVP, Bills to win the AFC East, Bills over 10.5 wins. You name it, he had it. There comes in time in the postseason when you need to trust your instincts and your pre-season reads. Throw caution to the wind. Regardless the outcome on Sunday, Steak isn’t rushing to grab a life jacket. He’s in the Captain’s chair, ready for whatever comes next.
The Pick: Bills -2.5 (-120)
RECAP:
NFL
49ers TT Over 30.5 (-115) Degen’s Best Bet
Bucs Lions Under 48.5 (-110) Dino’s Best Bet
Bills -2.5 (-110) Steak’s Best Bet