The Final Countdown
NFL Futures - NFC East & NFC South
This Sunday, mop the floors, clean the windows, flip the mattress - just find something that looks like it could be done and do it. Everything and anything your wife/girlfriend’s heart could desire. Because next Sunday is our time. And the Sunday after that, and every other Sunday till February…
Last year we introduced “Maps Plays” and they did quite well. A Map Play is looking at a teams schedule and pinpointing look ahead /letdown spots, or situations where they’re at an extreme disadvantage based on schedule of opponent or travel.
A few examples: if a team has three straight road games (Shoutout MidMajorMatt), three games in 10 days (happens a lot this year), or just a gauntlet of huge divisional games followed by a “sure win” type of game where the opponent can be overlooked.
We’ll be leaning into The Map more this year and do a better job of tracking its record.
As for College Football - we’ll be treading very lightly in week 1. Last year we went 2-7 and got crushed. We have much more success after we’ve seen the teams plays a game or two. With that said, we still have a few official plays that will be included at the end of this weeks newsletter.
NFC East:
Divisions played: NFC South and AFC North
Odds to win division:
Eagles -140
Cowboys +175
Commanders +1100
Giants +1600
Dallas Cowboys
2023 Record: 12-5
2024 Win Total: 10.5
SB Odds: +1800
Sydney Sweeney is Americas newest heartthrob.
She’s pretty, sexy, thin and top heavy. She is the Dallas Cowboys.
Dallas has finished 12-5 for three straight years. Last year they made an incredible push to win the NFC East as the Eagles crumbled, but their playoff run didn’t even last till halftime in the Wildcard Round.
Despite coming up short in the playoffs (again) Jerry Jones elected to do absolutely nothing in free agency. Their Super Bowl window is closing and this might be the last year to capitalize. They struggled to resign their only offensive weapon in CeeDee Lamb. Head Coach Mike McCarthy remains unsigned on the last year of this contract. Same with Dak Prescott. Not sure what the plan is, but doing nothing is not a recipe for success.
The Cowboys have always been able to hang their hat on a strong O-line, but those days are gone. There is absolutely nothing to be excited about from the running game, as they might roster the worst RBs in the NFL. Outside of CeeDee Lamb, the WR core is atrocious.
And as for the Defense - surely this unit will still be strong, right? Not quite. Yes, Parsons is phenomenal, but they lost DC Dan Quinn and replaced him with 68 year old Mike Zimmer, who hasn’t coached in the NFL since being fired by Minnesota in 2021. Massive downgrade. Dallas has spotted a +10 in turnover margin the last 3 years, a stat that is highly unlikely to hold especially with Mike Zimmer coming in. DaRon Bland (CB) just suffered a season ending injury. Regression incoming.
Not only did Quinn leave, but he went to a division rival, which means you can expect the Commanders to give Dak some problems when they face off. On top of that the Cowboys schedule will be significantly more difficult than last year.
“If the Cowboys were a stock, Nancy Pelosi shorted them 4 months ago” - Greg
The one thing drawing our attention is that EVERYONE is looking to fade Dallas this year. Steak can’t help himself but to jump in and get contrarian, but also loves CeeDee to follow up that contract with a big season. The rest of us are on the sideline.
Best Bet:
Cowboys win division (+175) - Steak
CeeDee Most receiving yards (+750) - Steak
CeeDee OPOY (+900) - Steak
McCarthy first coach fired (+500) - Greg
New York Giants
2023 Record: 6-11
2024 Win Total: 6.5
SB Odds: +15000
The Giants have two reasons to be excited this year - new pass rusher Brian Burns (Panthers) and finally getting their QB a weapon in the draft. The Malik Nabers pick is cool, but it’s much worse when you realize Daniel Jones is eating up 30+ mill for the next three years in what appears to be an all time terrible signing.
The G-Men brought in Shane Bowen from the Titans to lead the D, where he was mediocre at best. They lost Xavier McKinney (Safety) but did address the secondary in the 2nd and 3rd round in hopes to fill the hole. New York’s biggest strength on defense should be the D-line. They now have Burns and Thibodeaux (1st round/5th overall pick in 2022) rushing the passer, and Dexter Lawrence being a menace in the interior. Degen thinks Kayvon could be a in for a big year. After a sleepy rookie season, he recorded 11.5 sacks and now has some attention off of him.
Things could get ugly fast in NY, and their first two games could decide the season. They need to go 2-0 because after that they have six straight games against teams that had an above .500 record last year.
2023 was a big drop off that most saw coming after Daboll won a playoff game and Coach of the Year in 2022. If Daniel Jones doesn’t work out, you can blame that atrocious Minnesota Vikings secondary.
Devin Singletary could be a sneaky good pickup at running back, but it’s a massive downgrade from Saquon who carried the offense. Singletary always seems to do well despite being overlooked, as he’s surprisingly had three straight 1,000 yard seasons. He’s Tyler Lockett of RBs.
Last year the Giants were -51 in the sack margin - worst of any team since 2000 (Warren Sharp). With Daniel Jones off an ACL injury, his ability to escape will likely get worse.
(fun fact: Degen had DJ anytime TD in that Eagles game ^)
We will try to end this with some positives. The O-line gets better with the signing of Jon Runyan (Packers) but it’s a far cry from being a cohesive unit. It’s crazy to say, but the Giants finished the season with a bit of momentum, going 4-3 in their last seven. The bottom line: Danny Dimes is getting way too much money, and until that problem is resolved it’s going to be dark days for Big Blue.
Best Bets:
Devin Singletary Yards OVER 750.5 (-110) - Greg
Kayvon Thibodeaux DPOY (+5000) & Sack Leader (+4000) - Degen
Malik Nabers Most Rookie Receiving Yard (+480) - Degen
Philadelphia Eagles
2023 Record: 11-6
2024 Win Total: 10.5
SB Odds: +1300
Nick Sirianni was a few plays away from winning a super bowl in 2022. Fast forward to 2024, and some might say he’s on the hot seat. This team quit on him last year, and the big question now is can he get them to buy back in.
Sirianni’s 2023 season all but proved coordinators Jonathan Gannon and Shane Steichen were responsible for the Super Bowl run. But on the bright side, both of their initial replacements are gone. Kellen Moore (Chargers) comes in to lead the offense and Vic Fangio (Fins) will take the defense. Fangio struggled in Miami, but his asshole approach could be perfect for a scumbag city like Philadelphia.
The Brotherly Shove dominated the NFL for the last 1.5 seasons, but with Jason Kelce’s retirement, it’s likely to take a step back. Not to worry, the Saquon Barkley signing should bolster the run game. It’s scary to think how well he did in NY with a terrible O-line, and although Philly’s line will be worse than last year, it’s miles above anything he’s gotten to play behind in his career.
AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith are one of the best WR duos in the league. Hurts had some really rough moments last year, but he’s still a solid QB. His $255M deal should help get the sour taste of 2023 out of his mouth.
Defensive leader, Fletcher Cox, is also gone (retired). The Eagles had a good free agency with defensive guys - signing Bryce Huff, Chauncey Gardner-Johnnson and Devin White. They also went with DB’s in 1st and 2nd round to support their secondary, which was the biggest weakness.
Last year the Eagles started 10-1 and finished 1-5. They still have one of the best rosters in the NFL and the schedule spots the biggest year-over-year drop in opponents.
The stage is set for Sirianni to make a Super Bowl run…or get fired by Week 12.
Best Bets:
Saquon Barkley OPOY (+1800) - Degen
Saquon Barkley Most Rushing TD’s (+2000) - Degen
Nick Sirianni COTY (+4000) - Degen
Washington Commanders
2023 Record: 4-13
2024 Win Total: 10.5
SB Odds: +12000
Ron Rivera is gone. Sam Howell is gone. Another new era begins in Washington. This isn’t like previous restarts for the Washington Redskins, Football Team, Commanders. This is a post Dan Snyder era restart. The District has reason for excitement, because the root of all problems has been removed.
Imagine having Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan, Matt LaFluer, Mike McDaniel and Raheem Morris on staff at the same time you need a new head coach…and you bring in Jay Gruden. Yikes.
Dan Quinn (Cowboys DC) comes in as the new HC where his defensive expertise is much needed. Kliff Kingsberry will be the offensive coordinator with a main focus on developing rookie QB Jayden Daniels (LSU). On paper this makes sense, as his college resume has Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray. Maybe he can thrive in a coordinator role as opposed to HC. We’ve seen it before and it wouldn’t be shocking.
Scary Terry has four straight 1,000 yard seasons with minimal QB talent, so the Daniels pick offers a ton of optimism. They also acquired RB Austin Ekeler who’s a great pass catcher and safety valve for the rookie.
The defense sold Montez Sweat and Chase young last year to start the rebuild process early. This year they have added four Edges to improve pressure. Like we mentioned with the Patriots - any team with a late BYE, a new coaching staff and a new QB is cause for concern. The Commanders don’t get their BYE till Week 14.
This Roster is bad. Really bad. The bright spot is…uh… well Jayden Daniels could be cool! Steak is on Commander Island here and says they make some early noise. They could pull some upsets, but Degen & Greg think they are a year away from being a year away.
Best Bet:
Commanders OVER 6.5 Wins (-120) - Steak
Jayden Daniels OVER 525.5 Rushing Yards (-110) - Steak & Degen
Jayden Daniels Most Rushing Yards (+110) - Degen
NFC South
Divisions Played: NFC East and AFC West
Odds to win division:
Falcons -145
Buccaneers +290
Saints + 550
Panthers +1100
Atlanta Falcons
2023 Record: 7-10
2024 Win Total: 9.5
SB Odds: +2600
Kirk Cousins landed himself another fat contract after six years and one playoff win with the Vikings. Never before in the NFL has someone cashed this many big checks with such a mediocre performance. Worry not, Falcons fans - you drafted Michael Penix with the eighth overall pick for insurance! Somehow they found a way to set themselves up for a “Win now, but also maybe win later (?)” strategy. Brilliant.
It’s not that bad, but it’s a unique approach. And knowing the Falcons, it’s bound to fail. HOWEVER (and this is a big however), we do like Raheem Morris as the new HC. It’s giving us 2023 DeMeco Ryans vibes. Morris brings Zac Robinson from LA as his OC. It’s certainly worth noting that Kirk is coming from another McVay guy in Kevin O’Connell and might be able to pick up the offense quickly.
The weapons are in place - Bijan, Drake, Pitts. Added serviceable guys in Rondale Moore (jk, out for season) and Darnell Mooney.
The Falcons lost six games by one possession last year. Tough breaks that could very well go the other way in 2024, especially with Desmond Ridder leaving town.
Morris will have his work cut out for him as the defense has tons of holes, but the schedule gets significantly easier. After the surprising Penix pick, they went with all defensive guys for the next four rounds. So they didn’t completely ignore the need and should have some youngry talent that is ready to go.
Once again, Kirk Cousins has no excuses. They get six of the first nine games at home. He’s got great O-line and tons of weapons. Atlanta is expected to win the lowly NFC South, and although that wouldn’t surprise us, it’s tough to expect anything more from them.
Best Bets:
Falcons Win NFC South* (-140) - Greg
*Waiting till after Week 1 to take, because of Steeler bias
Carolina Panthers
2023 Record: 2-15
2024 Win Total: 4.5
SB Odds: +25000
Dave Canales comes in to save Bryce Young’s career. In 2022 he rejuvenated Geno Smith, and he did the same thing with Baker Mayfield in ‘23. But in both of those instances he was focused exclusively on the offense. Now he needs to coach the team, call plays, and develop a struggling QB. It’s certainly doable, but a huge ask for a young coach.
The Panthers enter the season with their 3rd head coach in as many years after Frank Reich and Matt Rhule were fired mid-season in back to back years. The new coaching staff gets an early BYE week which should certainly help a young team. They made some big moves in free agency to help Bryce Young with a couple guys to beef up the O-line (it’s still not very good) and Diontae Johnson to be his #1 WR (ew).
After one year, it looks very doubtful that Young will ever meet the expectations set for him. It’s one thing to swing and miss on a 1st overall pick, it’s another to leverage the entire teams future on it and miss.
This year is about one thing for the Carolina Panthers: Save Bryce Young.
The root problem for Carolina is owner Dave Tepper. He’s been there for six years and they have all been losing seasons. The Panthers had six different QB’s lead the team in passing. Canales will be the fourth in his short tenure. Base principle thinking tells you until he steps down from the decisioning making process or sells the team, Carolina is in for a rough future.
On the bright side - the schedule is much easier than last year, and the offense should be better.
The defense will likely take a step back, but considering Canales is the only offensive minded coach in the division, we don’t think its’ a major concern.
Best Bet:
Diontae Johnson UNDER 800.5 Receiving Yards (-110) - Greg
Xavier Legette OVER 450.5 Receiving Yards (-110) - Steak
New Orleans Saints
2023 Record: 9-8
2024 Win Total: 7.5
SB Odds: +10000
We are nearing the end of the write-ups. It’s A LOT of work. This is team 31/32. And now we have to write about Dennis Allen and Derek Carr. Talk about not saving the best for last.
Allen is the favorite for first coach fired, and as confident as we are that he won’t be there next year, the Saints do have a Top 5 easy schedule. His gold medal would be making it through Week 18. Winning the division is a major stretch.
The Saints moved to a new OC in Klint Kubiak. Their last OC was there for 18 years(!). It’s tough to imagine blaming the OC with Dennis Allen running the show and Derek Carr under center, but his firing was a lifeline for both.
New Orleans played significantly better in the 2nd half of 2023, mainly because they started to utilize Taysom Hill and finally found some Redzone success (god we can’t wait for a NFL Redzone Sunday). No team is spending more on running back, but the combo of Kamara and Jamaal Williams isn’t exactly a threat anymore. Olave needs to have a monster year if this team wants to make any sort of run for the division.
The defense isn’t exciting either, but their secondary is strong.
It’s tough to find a team in a greater state of purgatory.
Best Bet:
Rashid Shaheed OVER 675.5 Receiving Yards (-110) - Steak
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2023 Record: 9-8
2024 Win Total: 8.5
SB Odds: +6500
Gotta give credit where it’s due - Baker Mayfield earned his new contract. He feels like a Tampa guy. Winning the division and a playoff game was massive. Kudos to HC Todd Bowles as well.
As we talked about in the Panthers section, OC Dave Canales left Tampa for Carolina. Liam Cohen comes in from Kentucky to lead the offense, but was previously a McVay guy. Baker had his best season ever last year in terms of passing yards and TD’s. But Baker with expectations versus Baker without expectations has proven to be a very different player...
This year his O-line will be worse and the D lost some leaders in Shaq Barrett and Devin White. They still have a stud at every level in Vita Vea, Lavonte David and Antoine Winfield. The secondary will be a major concern if the pass rush isn’t effective, but it does help to have a defensive minded HC.
Mike Evans has been unbelievable. Ten straight seasons with at least 1,000+ yards. Chris Godwin is on a contract year. If you want guys to target on this team, it’s them. Rahaad White had a solid year, but the Bucs RBs ranked dead last in yards per carry in 2023, so we are a bit apprehensive to back him.
Tampa Bay has won this division three straight years, but the lowly NFC South should be more competitive.
Best Bet:
Baker Yards UNDER 3500.5 Passing Yards (-110) - Greg
Bucs Win NFC South (+290) - Steak
Baker Most Passing TD’s (+2800) - Degen
Baker 30+ TDs (+350) - Degen
Todd Bowles COTY (+5000) - Degen
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 1
Write ups with best bets will begin next week. For now, here’s our best bets:
Notre Dame +3 (-110) - Steak
ND/Texas A&M Under 46.5 (-110) - Steak & Degen
Michigan St -11.5 (-110) - Degen — this is -13.5/14 in some places. Too much steam and I would not play at that number. Tweeted this on 8/23 as 2 unit best bet. If it’s a bad look to give out in newsletter much later and worse number, please tell us as we appreciate feedback.
RECAP
NFC East Bets
Cowboys Win NFC East (+175) - Steak
CeeDee Most Receiving Yards (+750) - Steak
CeeDee OPOY (+900) - Steak
McCarthy first coach fired (+500) - Greg
Kayvon Thibodeaux DPOY (+5000) & Sack Leader (+4000) - Degen
Malik Nabers Most Rookie Receiving Yard (+480) - Degen
Devin Singletary Yards OVER 750.5 (-110) - Greg
Saquon Barkley OPOY (+1800) - Degen
Saquon Barkley Most Rushing TD’s (2000) - Degen
Nick Sirianni COTY (+4000) - Degen
Commanders OVER 6.5 Wins (-120) - Steak
Jayden Daniels OVER 525.5 Rushing Yards (-110) - Steak + Degen
NFC South Bets
Falcons Win NFC South (-140) - Greg
Diontae Johnson UNDER 800.5 Receiving Yards (-110) - Greg
Xavier Legette OVER 450.5 Receiving Yards (-110) - Steak
Rashid Shaheed OVER 675.5 Receiving Yards (-110) - Steak
Baker Yards UNDER 3500.5 Passing Yards (-110) - Greg
Baker Most Passing TD’s (+2800) - Degen
Baker 30+ TDs (+350) - Degen
Todd Bowles COTY (+5000) - Degen
Bucs Win NFC South (+290) - Steak