The Grind Continues
NFL Week 12 & College Football Week 13
The beat goes on
The NFL ass beating that is
This might just not be our year. A near reverse sweep on the best bets. Saved by a push. Even the success in College came to a halt, as we suffered our first losing Saturday all season (double check that, please).
On a separate note - we had a pretty fun change of pace on The Board Review this week, as Degen interviewed former Super Bowl Champion Quarterback Brad Johnson. You can watch it on our YouTube page below and while there please subscribe!
Alright enough small talk. We’re scaling back the NFL plays to strictly best bets until we can find something. Need a spark like we need air.
As far as CFB goes, we still trust our reads. There are only a handful of weeks left in the regular season, so for that reason we will continue to press.
IF YOU’RE GOING TO ANY GAMES THIS WEEKEND BE SURE TO USE PROMO CODE “DEGEN” FOR $20 OFF YOUR FIRST PURCHASE WITH SEATGEEK
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 23-30-1 (-20.93 Units)
CFB: 45-26-1 (+15.43 Units)
Reminder for tracking purposes: our Best Bets are 2 units (risk)
NFL WEEK 12
“Miami, Amsterdam, Tokyo, Spain, Lost
Los Angelas, India, Lost on a Train, Lost”
- Frank Ocean and our 2024 NFL Gambling Season
Ravens at Chargers +2.5 Total 36.5 (Degen’s Best Bet) YTD: 4-6-1
If I could go back in time, I would have never faded the Charges by taking the under on their win total. It’s not that I didn’t respect Jim Harbaugh - because I absolutely do. I just didn’t think he was going to find this much success in year one with this roster. I stared at the depth chart for a solid 17 minutes and decided to pull the trigger. That appears to be a big mistake, as this team looks better each week, and also seems to love playing together. A testament to great coaching by Jim.
With all that said…I’m sick of their shit. This team (including their social media manager) is having a little too much fun for my liking. Riding a little too high. Feeling a little too good. The highs don’t late forever.
The Chargers are not beating Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson in back-to-back games on primetime. They just aren’t. Can you see it? I can’t see it. Not to mention, you got a pissed off Ravens team coming off a loss to the Steelers.
The Bengals came out flat and the Chargers took a 24-6 lead into halftime. They almost blew it with a lackluster 2H offensively. This seems to be a common occurrence with LA this season. Given the magnitude of this game, you’re going to have to play 4 quarters. The Chargers have shown they are really good at playing 2-3 quarters, but you can’t slip up against the former and maybe repeat NFL MVP.
The Pick: Ravens -2.5 (-115)
Chiefs at Panthers +10.5 Total 43 (Greg’s Best Bet) YTD: 5-6
The last time I faded the Panthers was against the Giants in Munich. It went terribly. In fact, as a whole we are 0-2 on fading the Panthers this year. Pretty rough when you consider they have only covered 3 games.
Time to get the monkey off our back.
The Chiefs will enter Sunday without covering a game in the month of November, failing to do so in their last four. But they were also moving along at 9-1, not necessarily convincing wins agains the Bucs and Broncos, but wins nonetheless.
The loss to Buffalo could be the slap in the face this team needed.
Going into their BYE, the Panthers won back to back games for the first time since Week 2 + 3 of the 2021 season. Teams have been struggling off their BYE week (5-11 ATS) this year, especially teams that were finding a rhythm going into it.
This Chiefs offense certainly has their issues and I don’t necessarily expect them to come out guns blazing in a vintage Mahomes game. I see the defense making a major bounce back after letting Josh Allen and the Bills put up 30+.
The Pick: Chiefs -10.5 (-115)
Patriots at Dolphins -7 Total 46.5 (Steak’s Best Bet) YTD: 2-9
The Dolphins are getting it together. Steak’s a lookin’ and he’s a likin’.
After losing Tua’s first game back to the Cardinals, Miami had a hard fought loss in Buffalo and has now won two in a row. The Playoffs might even be within reach if they can continue this recent success.
Traditionally the Dolphins fall off at the end of the season after coming out red hot, but maybe this year is a bit different. Maybe after a terrible start the Fins can find some late success and make some noise.
Steak respects Drake Maye and the Pats despite fucking us last week as a best bet, but this could be a regression spot for the young QB. The Patriots will be playing their 4th road game in 6 weeks as they are one of the few teams still to not have their BYE week. No time to fuck around for Miami. When you are 4-6 every game is a must win, especially a divisional opponent at home.
The Pick: Dolphins -7 (-110) - BetMGM
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 13
You can rewatch the stream with Degen & Steak here:
Ole Miss at Florida +10.5 Total 55
Jovan was unable to join us, but something he said last week stood out. He said Florida was going to beat either LSU or Ole Miss to get their sixth in and become bowl eligible. After knocking off LSU last week, we can’t say we like the Gators here. They burned people earlier in the season as a trendy home dog. Lately, they’ve been coming through. This seems like A LOT of respect for Ole Miss. We don’t want to get in the way of the Rebels, but what we will do is choose to back their offense along with DJ Lagway and the Gators. Give us points in this SEC showdown after both teams are coming off an under.
The Pick: OVER 55 (-110) - Draftkings
Indiana at Ohio State -10.5
Steak nailed the Hoosiers this season. Sit on the sidelines and don’t get greedy?
Fuck that. We’re backing Curt and the boys with the points AND straight up.
(Click to watch)
The Pick: Indiana +10.5 (-115) - Fanduel
FAU at Charlotte +2.5 Total 48.5
You know we love betting a team after they fired their coach. Well what we have here is more rare than Halley’s Comet. FAU and Charlotte BOTH just fired their coaches. The substitute teachers are in, which means it’s time for the class to have some fun.
The Pick: OVER 48.5 (-110)
BYU at Arizona St -3
It took us 10 games to finally accept it, but Sun Devils are a pretty cool football team. Cam Skattebo is a badass (which we’ve known for a while), but head coach Kenny Dillingham is someone who’s finally on our radar. We have one concern about this pick and that’s fading BYU at their lowest point this season. The Mormons are coming off their first loss, and are incredibly lucky it’s not two. Screw it. The Sun Devils are playing their home finale, and BYU is playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks. With a good coach and stud player, we think the Sun Devils get up and finish the season strong.
The Pick: Arizona St -3 (-110)
Penn St at Minnesota +11.5
This one is all Steak. I don’t personally love fading Penn St when they play inferior opponents. James Franklin knows the spread and he likes to cover them. We all know he can’t win the big games, but tends to beat up on the little guys. But Steak thinks this after two dominant wins that Penn St sleep walks in this game.
The Pick: Minnesota +11.5 (-110)
Wisconsin at Nebraska -1.5 Total 42
Full disclosure: we are going back to our contrarian roots and getting nasty with these next two plays. We think this may be the grossest over on the board. Wisconsin had a nice run with their backup QB, but after a loss to Oregon, their season is just about dead. Nebraska fired their OC and had a new play caller last week at USC, but unfortunately were unable to cash the over for us. Something we’ve adopted in sports betting - go back to the teams/players/spots that burned you. We think every Tom Dick and Harry will be taking this under expecting two flat performances. Not us!
The Pick: OVER 42 (-110) - Draftkings
Washington St at Oregon St +11.5
There are truly no words that can make sense of this pick. It’s for that reason that the pick is being made. We’re having a good season, we’ve got a few units to get nasty, and that’s exactly what we’re doing. Maybe sit this one out if you don’t have the stomach for it. No shame in that. It’s just in our blood to bet on Oregon State after they had quite possibly the most pathetic performance any team has had all season in a 28-0 loss to Air Force. It just has to be done.
The Pick: Oregon St +11.5 (-110)
RECAP:
NFL
Ravens -2.5 (-110) - Degen’s Best Bet
Chiefs -10.5 (-110) - Greg’s Best Bet
Dolphins -7 (-115) - Steaks Best Bet
CFB
Ole Miss/Florida OVER 55 (-110)
Indiana +10.5 (-115)
FAU/Charlotte OVER 48.5 (-110)
Arizona St -3 (-110)
Minnesota +11.5 (-110)
Wisconsin/Nebraska OVER 42.5 (-110)
Oregon St +11.5 (-110)