The Home Stretch

NFL Week 15 & Bowl Season

Dec 13, 2024

The Final Push of The NFL Season

This is it. The 4th quarter. No more London, no more BYEs.

Four more weeks. 64 more games.

Non-stop action down the stretch with 10 playoff spots up for grabs and everything to play for to determine seedings, divisions and the playoff picture.

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The Degenerate Weekly

Current Record YTD:

NFL: 31-35-1 (-18.18 Units)

CFB: 53-32-1 (+16.57 Units)

Reminder for tracking purposes: our Best Bets are 2 units (risk)

NFL WEEK 15

The record has improved, but the units haven’t. We just can’t all get into a groove with our best bets. Certainly the most challenging NFL season we’ve had since starting the newsletter. Nevertheless, we are still determined to finish strong.

Bengals at Titans +5 Total 46.5 (Degen’s Best Bet) YTD: 7-6-1

From what was once a 1-6 best bet record now sits at 7-6-1. Overall my personal NFL record is still shit, but I’m really trying to take a different approach on what my best bet is every weekend. Just going to be totally honest with you here - I love this one, which likely means it will lose and break the seven week streak. Tail with caution.

Let’s start with the Titans. I knew this team was going to be shit coming into the season. There were two reasons:

Never been a Will Levis guy. He’s never shown me the “it” factor in college. I understand why people WANT to believe he’ll be an elite QB because he’s got the look and build of one, but something is off with the top two inches (his brain).
I never fear a team when they make a bunch of big free agent signings. Especially when you have a new coach and regime taking over. Ridley and co signed with Tennessee to get paid, not win football games.

Tennessee is 2-11 ATS, but they are 7-5 to the over. Their last game was a loss to the Jags at home where they only scored 6 points. I’m not going to convince you that the offense is good, but I’m always looking to buy low. A 6 point performance at home would fit that criteria.

There is one main narrative I’d like to lean into with this game, and that’s Titans head coach Brian Callahan facing his former team. He was the offensive coordinator in Cincinnati for 4 years. I’m almost starting to love these spots for coaches more than the “revenge” spot for players.

The Bengals season is essentially over, but one thing they showed me after that primetime win against Dallas is Burrow and Chase are still having fun, and still looking to prove to the league they deserve to be in the MVP/OPOY conversation. Another observation is that Bengals D line STINKS. If Tony Pollard is playing, he will absolutely be a masterclass candidate.

My one minor concern with this pick is the weather. Looks like there’s chance for it to be cold, windy and rainy in Nashville. But I’ve never been a weatherman and I don’t intend on starting now. Give me Brian Callahan to throw the kitchen sink at Zac Taylor and this shitty Bengals defense on a short week.

The Pick: Over 46.5 (-105) - Draftkings

Dolphins at Texans -3 (Greg’s Best Bet) YTD: 5-9

Houston is coming off a BYE and have all but wrapped up the division. They essentially sit with a three game lead over the Colts with four games to go. But those four games are a doozy. After playing Miami the Texans head to Kansas City then back home against the Ravens.

The Dolphins have their work cut out for them and will likely come up just short of a playoff run unless the Broncos or Chargers fall apart over the final month. But they have far from given up and aren’t dead yet! An overtime walk-off TD against the Jets has this team fired up in the home stretch. Miami has been a very strong team since Tua returned from his most recent concussion, and look to continue the momentum into Houston.

I think these teams are headed in opposite directions for the remainder of the season. Tua is healthy and he’s playing incredibly well.

The Texans at 5-1 and since then have gone 3-4
The Dolphins started 2-6 and are current on a 4-1 run

I still think they come up short of the playoffs, but it sure as hell won’t be for a lack of effort in December. If the Dolphins can find a way to slow down Joe Mixon they can come away with a win here.

The Pick: Dolphins +3 (-110)

Bills at Lions -2.5 (Steak’s Best Bet) YTD: 4-10

When the Degen players only meeting took place, I told the fellas we should start betting on good teams rather than fade them. Steak listened to half of that.

The Bills have a bevy of good news this week (did I use that word right?). They’re getting Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman back. Josh Allen just solidified his case as the odds on favorite to win the NFL MVP last week despite the Bills losing to the Rams. Detroit is banged up all across the board, but primarily on the defensive side of the ball. As much as we love and respect the Lions, we have a hard time believing this team is going 16-1 with the only loss being to Baker Mayfield.

I’ll give Steak credit - when he says it’s Buffalo, it’s usually Buffalo.

The Pick: Bills +2.5

Bowl Season

You can rewatch Steak and Degens thoughts on the first round of Bowl Games here:

Full disclosure: this new era of bowl betting is more challenging than ever due to the transfer portal and NIL deals. We’re still going to give our thoughts and plays, but they will not reflect on our official record. Please do not rely on us for who is and isn’t playing in these games. We will do our best but this is certainly not our strength.

Boca Raton Bowl (FAU Stadium)

Western Kentucky vs James Madison -8.5 Total 52.5

A big part of capping bowl games is finding the team that’s motivated. Whether it’s just adding a bowl win to its resume, or beating a superior opponent - that is typically the side we want to be on. Now of course WKU and JMU both seem like “smaller” schools, but James Madison is much smaller in terms of brand recognition. This is also their first season in the FBS. The steep line makes sense given that.

We don’t have our eyes on a side here, but rather the total. Both starting QB’s are out for this game. WKU’s Caden Veltkamp was under center for most of the season because of an injury to projected starter TJ Finley. He did what he could leading WKU to an 8-5 season, but this guy did not pass my eye test. I am more than okay betting on points being scored with this guy gone. Couldn’t tell ya a damn thing about JMU, but don’t care. They’ll be motivated to get this win and I think you’ll get a good effort from them offensively. That’s all that matters to us.

The Pick: WKU/JMU OVER 52.5 (-110)

LA Bowl (Sofi Stadium)

Cal vs UNLV +1.5 Total 51.5

Steak and I are both torn on whether this is a fade of UNLV, or a bet on Cal. I guess you could say it’s a little bit of both.

UNLV just lost to Boise in their conference championship. We know, because we bet them (fuckers). It was a miserable experience fading Jeanty and Skattebo in the same day. But anyways, what we took away from that game is not that UNLV is bad, but we feel their magic may have run out. That was the game to getup and play for. We have a hard time believing they’re going to give two shits about the LA bowl after missing out on a chance to be in the playoff. Not to mention their head coach, Barry Odom, just left for Purdue. UNLV just announced it’s hiring Dan Mullen, which we think isn’t a bad choice, but it obviously has no impact on this game.

What does have an impact is Cals QB Fernando Mendoza has entered the transfer portal. Obviously that would be some “bad news” but you could say it’s offset by UNLV’s coach leaving. We could be way off here, but losing Mendoza does not result in Golden Bears fans losing any sleep. I think they’ll be fine in the future, and in this particular matchup we think the defense can do enough to stifle (love using that word) UNLV.

The Degenerate