Merry Christmas!
Football Saturday! Football Sunday!
Snap and clap and touch your toes
Raise you hands, now body roll
Dance it out, you’re hot to go
H-O-T T-O G-O
Year FIVE of the Degenerate officially kicks into high gear.
Last year we went two units for our best bets in the NFL and it went terribly. No más! We may sprinkle in a couple multi-unit plays from time to time, but it’s back to our bread and butter. One game, one play, one unit.
That’s enough intro - let’s get to the meat!
Join us every Thursday for The Degenerate Hour. We will be breaking down every angle and digging into every betting market available for Thursday Night Football. Live on Pikkit YouTube Channel at 7pm EST
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 0-0
CFB: 0-0
NFL WEEK 1
Lions at Packers -2.5 Total 47.5 (Degen’s Best Bet)
January 8th, 2023. It was Week 18, and the Detroit Lions were playing the Packers in Green Bay. Their season was over, but the Packers needed a win to get into the playoffs. What happened? Dan Campbell bit their knee caps and the Lions won 20-16. It was Aaron Rodgers last game as a Packer.
I thought at first this line was a lot of respect for the Pack. In my mind, the Lions are and have been the superior team between these two, and I would expect the oddsmakers to make this somewhere around the PK. The line opened -1.5 and has since moved to -2.5 after the Packers traded for Micah Parsons.
But I have to remind myself - people are down on the Detroit Lions this year. Why? Because they lost both their offensive (Ben Johnson) & defensive (Aaron Glenn) coordinators. I don’t want to come in here and downplay the impact of those losses. We saw just how important it was with the Eagles after Steichen and Gannon left. I’m sure the Lions are going to have some challenges throughout the season…but not in Green Bay. They take their play to another level against this team.
The Lions defense was in shambles to end the season. Now, they are much healthier. Meanwhile the Lions offense is still equipped with all its weapons. Sure there are new play callers, but I think this team is a well oil machine, and they remind everyone of that right out of the gate.
The Pick: Lions +2.5 (-110)
Steelers at Jets +2.5 Total 38.5 (Greg’s Best Bet)
How can you not get romantic about football?
Aaron Rodgers matched up against his former team after kneecapping their high expectations in back to back seasons. Justin Fields has a chance of revenge against a team that benched him and let him walk in the offseason. All in Week 1? Poetry.
Call it destiny. Call it fate. But let’s call it what it really is. Two teams with strong defenses, and little room for excitement on the offensive side of the ball.
The difference is things tend to go well for the Steelers. They get the bounces. And the Jets are always left holding the short end of the stick. No one knows pain like Jets fans.
Wouldn’t it be all too fitting after the lackluster performance in New York for Rodgers to come out and deliver on the expectations the Jets had for him, but in a different uniform?
The Jets enter the season with an entirely new coaching staff, new QB, and without some of the biggest names from the 2024 defense.
The Steelers certainly have their problems, but Tomlin is returning and his record in season openers is 11-6-1. Last year the Steelers started hot then faded down the stretch when the schedule got brutal. It’s not as bad this year, but the Steelers schedule is stacked late. Making early wins a necessity for them to start the season hot.
This is the only game on openeing weekend with a total in the 30’s.
Don’t expect fireworks, don’t expect excitement. Expect two defenses with familiarity against the opposing QB where a late Fields turnover makes all the difference.
The Pick: Steelers -2.5 (-115 FD)
Dolphins at Colts -1.5 Total 47.5 (Steak’s Best Bet)
I saw a lot of celebration when Daniel Jones was named the starter over Anthony Richardson.You’ll have to forgive me for being skeptical but Danny Dimes is not the guy to cure the Colts Week 1 sickness.
Don’t get me wrong, the Fins have their problems. But Tua’s brain is functional (for now) Waddle is healthy (for not) and there’s more than enough talent on both sides of the ball for them to start the year with a win.
The most exciting thing in this game is the race to first coach fired. McDaniel has moved from +500 to +200 and I think he buys himself a few weeks out of the gate.
The Pick: Dolphins +1.5 (-120 DK)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 2
We avoided sending any CFB picks in Week Zero & Week 1 because quite frankly it’s just impossible for us to cap with no sample size. We have not had success in the past without getting eyes on the teams first.
You can watch Steak and Degens live breakdown of the CFB Board from Tuesday on YouTube. Also be sure to check back later tonight for our Best Bets video.
Not necessarily spraying the board in Week 2, but we’re ready to press some buttons. Now we go.
Illinois at Duke +3.5
I (Degen) am fading Duke this season meanwhile Steak is betting on Illinois over 8.5 wins. This is what we call a collaboration.
Duke has the hype from their new and very expensive QB Darian Mensah coming over from Tulane. Illinois has the hype from returning the QB, HC as well as plenty of starters on both sides of the ball after a very successful season last year. You could argue this line is short, and you could argue that Illinois is one of the most public sides of the weekend. Don’t care.
The Pick: Illinois -2.5 (-115)
Ole Miss at Kentucky +9.5 Total 50.5
Both Steak and I are on Ole Miss futures this season. We liked what we saw from young QB Austin Simmons in his first game despite throwing 2 interceptions. The Rebels offense picked up steam early after a slow start.
I bet on Kentucky and lost due to a Toledo backdoor. The Wildcats offense was abysmal, led by QB Zach Calzada. The running game wasn’t bad, but overall it was their defense that helped them win that game. The Wildcats D only allowed Toledo to score 14 points and 7 of that came on the last drive while playing prevent.
We think the first road test for Austin Simmons might be a difficult one. There is a chance this Kentucky defense isn’t a fluke, and we think they will try to establish the run. This feels like a low scoring dog fight that Ole Miss barely survives.
The Pick: UNDER 50.5 (-110)
Vanderbilt at Virginia Tech -2
Steak has been eyeing this game since the offseason. He hammered the Cocks against Va Tech in Week 1, and now he wants to back the Hokies. He said Virginia Tech would get beat to open the season, but respond by bouncing back against Vandy in a revenge game. Don’t forget - this Hokies team opened up the 2024 season on the road as a double digit favorite in Vandy and lost in overtime. It was an up and down season for Va Tech, but this spot has to be circled for them all offseason.
The Pick: Virginia Tech -2 (-110)
RECAP:
NFL
Lions +2.5 -110 (Degen Best Bet)
Steelers -2.5 -110 ( Gregs Bets Bet)
Dolphins +1.5 -120 (Steaks Best Bet)
CFB
Illinois -2.5 (-115)
Ole Miss/Kentucky UNDER 50.5 (-110)
Virginia Tech -2 (-110)