The Madness Continues
Guide to the Sweet 16 and beyond
Before getting into the Sweet 16, let’s first take a moment and understand what just took place. This first two rounds of this years tournament were arguably the most chaotic of all time. Underdogs were absolutely CRUSHING it the first 3 days, and then everything corrected a bit with favorites going 7-1 on the fourth and final day. On top of that – who the fuck saw the Pac 12 just obliterating anyone who stood in their way? Not us, not you, definitely Bill Walton. Tread lightly after what we just experienced. You are going to be tempted to buy in on the hot teams getting points in these next rounds. Just hear us out first…
SATURDAY
Oregon St vs Loyola -7.5 – First thought here is that Loyola Chicago might be Americas team. They took down a 1 seed and have Sister Jean on their side. But fuck…giving 7.5 points?! And against potentially the hottest team in the tournament? The Beavers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 and have been underdogs in just about all of them. This team is playing with house money and having a blast while doing it. Don’t get cute with the points here, -7.5 is a massive amount of respect from Vegas on the Sister Jean’s. Lay the wood. Loyola -7.5.
Villanova vs Baylor -7 – Turns out Nova is actually a solid squad despite losing their star player. But as we said in last weeks email – Baylor is going to find their groove and return to early season form. The public might be backing the Bears here, and we are going to jump on them as well. Nova had a nice run, but it ends Saturday. BAYLOR -7.
Oral Roberts vs Arkansas -11.5 – These teams played early in the season and Arkansas won by 11. Could be a revenge spot, and who doesn’t want some Oral on a Saturday night?!? (sorry, couldn’t resist). This is a stay away game for us, but if we had to bet it, we’d be with Woo Pig Sooey here. Reason? Hefty, hefty spread. If you want the dog, take ‘em 1H.
Syracuse vs Houston -6 – This one is TOUGH. Syracuse always thrives as an 11 seed. There is just something about an inspired zone defense in tournament games that is suffocating for opposing teams. WVU was for real, and they didn’t stand a chance. But everyone is slurping the Orange now. As for us, we’ve heard “Buddy Buckets” one too many god damn times. Houston escaped Rutgers by the skin of their nuts. Syracuse is WAY too public here. Fade the trendy dog and take Houston, laying the ML.
SUNDAY
Creighton vs Gonzaga -13.5 – The Zags are so fucking good. Creighton isn’t. No pick here, but gun to our head we’d go Zags.
FSU vs Michigan -2.5 – The spread seems a bit low for us. Could be a reverse trap where Michigan rolls, but that’s not where we are leaning. The thought is FSU had a wake up call with a loss in the ACC final to Ga Tech. Their offense hasn’t even clicked yet and they’ve had two good wins to the start the tourney. We like the small upset here – Go Noles (+2.5).
UCLA vs Alabama -6.5 – Don’t be the guy who just blindly backs the Pac 12 given how they’ve started. You could get burned this weekend. But here, we do like the points with the Bruins. They seem to have the athletes and swag to hang with Bama. But, a favorite is SO due to win and not cover. We think this is it. The pick here is Bama ML.
Oregon vs USC -2.5 – Toughest game on the board. Not sure who’s performance was more impressive. USC demolished Kansas, who could’ve very well been sneaky trash. Whereas Iowa was a legit contender and Oregon could not be stopped. Don’t love it, but we do love shouting “quack!” during games. So for that reason – Ducks (+2.5)!
Monday and Tuesday
Full disclosure: we could look like complete assholes by the time the Monday games tip. Below is our best guess at the Final Four. Our logic for a lot of the picks is to date the tourney has been nothing but chaos, so look for the seas to calm and the favorites to cruise for the next couple rounds.
West - Gonzaga: Vegas has them at even money to win the tourney. They might get upset on the way there, but it’s not coming at the hands of Creighton, Oregon, or USC. Value on Oregon to win this side at +375, but we’re taking the chalk.
East - Michigan: Everyone is loving the Big 10 shit show that took place last weekend, so it only makes sense for them to right the ship and put their only remaining team up in the Final Four.
Mid-West - Loyola: Houston is the favorite, but they are big fat phonies. Cuse and Oregon St. had a fun run, but a blowout loss is right around the corner.
South - Baylor: See above - Big 12 went full poop pants in round 1&2. Be ready for the bounce back.
Best of luck through the weekend with all your plays. If you’re very very quiet you can close your eyes and hear Jim Nantz serenading you with his sweet Augusta song, looking forward to a wonderful April.