The NHL Playoffs have arrived. Nothing, and I mean NOTHING is better than playoff hockey. Cocaine on ice!
In a typical year we are much more active betting the NHL during the regular season. This year was a bit of an anomaly, with favorites winning at an absolute absurd clip. For that reason, we (mostly) gave up on the day to day, but don’t think for one second that we haven’t been paying attention. The calm seas of the regular season for public bettors certainly makes us all the more ready to raise our contrarian flag and start firing at some very appealing plays.
To the matchups we go.
The Eastern Conference
Carolina Hurricanes (-125) vs. Boston Bruins (+105)
At first glance, we were shocked at how low this line was. After digging a bit further, it makes a bit more sense given that Carolina is expected to be without Frederik Andersen (starting goalie).
Freddy got ran out of Toronto after always being a liability in net for a team that consistently kept underperforming in the playoffs. How did he respond? He’s the second favorite to win the Vezina behind Shesterkin. Bravo Freddy, Bravo.
Antti Raanta is no slouch of a backup, and the Canes are still scary beyond stellar goaltending. Not only did Carolina sweep the season series against the B’s (3-0), but they did so in extremely convincing fashion. Winning by a combined score of 16-1. 16! To! 1! The Bruins scored one goal in three matchups against these guys and are coming into the postseason at even money? Even without Frederik, this line seems low to us, and we think it’s because Vegas knows Boston can capitalize.
The Pick: Bruins in 6
The Bet: Bruins to win series (+100)
Toronto Maple Leafs (-120) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (+100)
You have to be an absolute lunatic to take the Leafs in this situation. This team hasn’t won’t a playoff series since 2004 - all they do is shit the bed in the playoffs. And it’s not like they’ve only had a few chances either. Five straight years of making the playoffs and not advancing past the first round? ROUGH.
We know the Leafs had a great year, and Austin Matthews might be the best player in hockey, but the Lightning are still the back-to-back Stanley Cup champions…and the Leafs are favored? Maybe this is bait, but this is a play we will make 10 out of 10 times. The Leafs cut ties with professional turd Frederick Anderson and moved to Jack Campbell in net - maybe thats the change they needed to take ‘em to the next level.
We came into this leaning Leafs, and came out of it feeling the Bolts. Our brains were in a pretzel, but then we checked the line again. Fresh of the press this morning (hardest working gamblers, you’re welcome) the Bolts are getting a little love from sharp bettors moving from +100 to -105. That’s all we needed to see.
The Pick: Lightning in 7
The Bet: Lightning to win series -105
Florida Panthers (-355) vs. Washington Capitals (+270)
Florida Panthers (-355) vs. Washington Capitals (+270)
The Presidents trophy finds itself in Sunrise, FL. Just as we all predicted, the Florida Panthers are the “best” team in hockey.
This is one of the most lopsided matchups and the line is showing it. The Caps had a chance to dodge this bullet, but lost four in a row down the stretch cementing their spot as a Wildcard team. Florida is primed to make a run, and even though we don’t see ‘em winning it all, there’s no reason to believe they show any sign of struggle against the Caps.
Panthers -355 is an accurate price, but in playoff hockey any goalie and get hot and lead the upset, and the Presidents’ Trophy winner has a little bit of a track record of underperforming come Playoff time. Let’s get a little cute on this on and take the Panthers to steamroll through this series.
The Pick: Panthers in 4
The Bet: Panthers to sweep +540
NY Rangers (-115) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (-105)
This line is on the move early, as the Rangers went from slight dogs to favorites when it was announced the goalie for the Pens, Tristan Jarry, would miss the opening few games with a lower body injury. You may remember this guy from last year when he threw a pass directly to the Islanders and gave up the game winning goal in 2OT. This may be addition by subtraction for the Pens.
The Penguins still have the notable stars on the ice, but the player to watch this series in net for the Rangers…
Igor Shesterkin is looking like an elite goaltender for years to come. He’s your current favorite to win the Vezina. All that is fine and dandy, but the playoffs are different, and now he has to prove he can stay in form.
The main reason for the line being so close is the drastic difference in playoff experience. The Rangers are the new hot girl at the dance, and the Pens core has been around forever with Crosby, Malkin and Letang. We expect this to be a tight series, but going with the better goalie.
The Pick: Rangers in 6
The Bet: Rangers to win series (-115)
The Western Conference
Colorado Avalanche (-655) vs. Nashville Predators (+455)
The road to the Stanley Cup in the West goes through Colorado - that is terrible news for anyone not named the Avalanche. The Avs are what the kids call nowadays a “wagon”. I think it means they can’t be stopped, and it’s quite accurate. Colorado only lost 5 games at home last year, and 2 of them were when the team stopped trying because they had everything clinched. They’re also your odds on favorite to win the Cup at +320 (opened +600). Be afraid…be very afraid.
The Av’s clinched the playoffs in early April and pretty much locked up the overall top seed 10 games ago. Since then, they’ve been on cruise control and resting their guys, so don’t put too much stock into the fact that they lost 6 of their last 7 to end the year. What’s important to note is this team is LOADED with firepower, and have been for years, but haven’t been able to get past the second round in the last 3 years. In 2020, they were thumped by the Dallas Stars, but were also bitten by the injury bug and down to their 3rd string goalie. The Stars eventually lost to the Lightning in the finals. Last year was an inexcusable performance which resulted in a 4-2 loss to the Knights. Their offense just completely disappeared, and as a whole, the team looked lost for most of the series.
Now, this Av’s team has a chip on their shoulder, and I would be shocked if they didn’t make light work of Nashville. Granted, the Preds are a scrappy team, and have one of the best home crowds in hockey. It doesn’t matter who their opponent is though. The Avalanche know they’ve got the talent to win it all, have squandered two chances and can’t keep the band together forever. Hair on fire is an understatement of what I expect Colorado to play like in these playoffs.
The Pick: Avs in 5
The Bet: Avs -2.5 (+105)
Calgary Flames (-340) vs. Dallas Stars (+270)
If there’s one team who can challenge the Avalanche in the West, it’s the Calgary Flames. Cleary the oddsmakers think so as well, as the Flames are the second favorite to win the West (+270) behind the Avs (+140), they’re also the third favorite to win the Cup at +700.
The Flames echo a similar theme from the Avs recent playoff experience – a struggle to advance. Calgary hasn’t made it out of the first round since 2015. Last year, they missed the playoffs completely. But in 2019 they were the #1 seed in the West, and lost to Colorado. The biggest problem then was goaltending, which they’ve addressed by signing Jacob Markstrom. He has been phenomenal this year, and even contested Igor Shesterkin in the Vezina running (award for best goalie). Their GM has truly don’t an incredible job of putting together the right types of players on this team. Adding Lucic a few years ago brought them some nasty, and now they added some Cup experience with the Blake Coleman and Trevor Lews signings.
Calgary’s top players are free agents this year, so if any team is in a “win now” mode, it’s them. The Stars do have Cup experience from their 2020 run, but they’re no match for the Flames firepower on offense. This line opened Flames -300 and it’s already getting hammered with sharp money. Not only are we making a play for the series, but we will take a shot with Calgary to win the Cup as well.
The Pick: Flames in 6
The Bet:
Flames -1.5 (-140)
Flames to win Stanley Cup +700
Edmonton Oilers (-230) vs. LA Kings (+180)
The Oilers season was an absolute rollercoaster. Opened the year winning 9 of their first 10, and then couldn’t buy a win in late December/early January, losing 13 of 15. They eventually fired their coach and finished the year strong. I’ll be honest, I’m having a flashback of 2021, when the Oilers seemed like the easy and obvious choice in their first round matchup agains the Jets. What happened? Edmonton got swept. One would have to imagine Draisaitl and McDavid are itching to erase that performance from fans (and gamblers) memories.
The Kings finished the year strong winning 6/7, but they were also against the weakest teams in league (Kraken, Ducks, Blackhawks, Blue Jackets). Jonathan Quick has playoff experience, but he doesn’t have anywhere near the same talent surrounding him. I’m sure this won’t be as easy as I’m making it seem to be, but I can’t fathom the Oilers shitting the bed again.
The Pick: Oilers in 5
The Bet:
Oilers to win series -230
Oilers to sweep +710
Minnesota Wild (-150) vs St Louis Blues (+130)
No point in spending too much time on this. It’s literally a coin flip.
The Pick: Wild in 6
The Bet: None
NBA PLAYOFFS - ROUND 2
We said we would keep an eye on the last years trend:
Keep it Simple: If the favorite wins, they cover. If the underdogs covers, they win.
Round 1 played out to 37/43 games following this system. Not nearly as strong as what we saw in Round 1 of 2021 (41/43), but still worth keeping an eye on it and not be afraid to take the underdog ML as opposed to with the points to increase your potential payout.
The Eastern Conference
#1 Miami Heat (-450) vs. #4 Philadelphia 76ers (+325)
With news that MVP candidate Joel Embiid missing at least Games 1 & 2 of this series the line moved to Miami as the biggest favorite in Round 2. The bets are about split, but the sharp gamblers aren’t afraid to lay the heavy juice and take the Heat at -450. (you can find the Heat at -300 on FanDuel, another reminder that if you have access to multiple sports-books, it’s very important to shop around for the best number). We are going to tread lightly for this series for a few reasons. Miami is the right play and they absolutely should win this series even if Embiid plays, but…we can’t lean into them too hard strictly for the reason that EVERYONE is counting Philly out. Rather than lay the heavy number on Miami, we’re gonna tread lightly on a few props.
The Pick: Heat in 7
The Bets:
Heat to win in 7 +380
Series Spread: Philadelphia +1.5 (Even)
Heat to win Eastern Conference +210
#2 Boston Celtics (-225) vs. #3 Milwaukee Bucks (+175)
Obviously the line has changed with Milwaukee winning Game 1 (we were on ‘em, nbd). Milwaukee is now the favorite at (-125). This should be the best series in this round of the Playoffs, but we said that about Nets/Celtics last round too. Considering we are a little late to the party on this one for the write-up, we’re mostly going to play this series game by game rather than any futures. Well…maybe a prop or two. All we can say is the Celtics are the sharp play this series and after getting bullied Sunday afternoon and losing Game 1, the public seems to be jumping on the Bucks bandwagon. Early lean Celtics Game 2.
The Pick: Bucks in 7
The Bets:
Bucks in 7 +550
Series to go 7 games +165
THE WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 Phoenix Suns (-295) vs #4 Dallas Mavericks (+240)
Devin Booker is expected to be back for this series. He’s so god damn good, and so are the Suns. A Bucks/Suns Finals rematch seems inevitable…but that’s no fun.
The Mavs stepped up without Luka for a few games and made light work of the dumpster fire that is the Utah Jazz. It seems like nobody is giving them a chance to pull off the upset here…EXCEPT US! In Brunson we trust.
The Pick: Mavs in 7
The Bet: Mavs to win series (+240)
#2 Memphis Grizzlies (+410) vs #3 Golden State Warriors (-510)
Obviously this line reflects Golden States Game 1 win. At this point, there’s not much worth discussing or betting on. The Warriors appear to be back, and after Draymon’s questionable ejection, they’re probably only going to get more pissed off and motivated to remind people that they’re capable of winning without Kevin Durant.
Hard to fathom Golden State not finishing this one out, but the Grizzlies are just so damn lovable…
The Pick: Warriors in 6 (sigh)
The Bet: No bet