The Players Championship and NCAAB Conference Tourney Week
Gamblers Paradise
(The island green on the 17th hole at TPC Sawgrass)
We’ve got a lot to get to in this weeks email, but first let’s take a moment of sadness to sulk in the pain that is Viktor Hovland. We appreciate all the texts from our friends and readers sending their condolences on our Hovland outright ticket as he collapsed over the weekend. The Degen community is a kind one, but seeing Vik 3 putt from 11ft is still haunting us.
There’s a very important lesson to be learned for any golf bettor. You should always keep tabs on the anticipated weather conditions as the tournament progresses, and jump in live to hedge your bet if needed. At Bay Hill, the winds were picking up to 15-20 mph going into the weekend, with gusts as high as 30-35 mph. Vik was clearly struggling on Saturday after posting a +3 round. So, we hedged with the most steady and solid golfer who was within striking distance on Sunday morning - Mr. Too Hottie. You could have gotten Scheffler as high as 90/1 when he was 8 strokes back on Friday. I can not stress this enough - GET ON TWITTER!
We’re onto The Players! This weekends event is dubbed the 5th major, and the first “big” tournament of the year. The prize pool is the largest of any on tour at $20,000,000. The winner will take home roughly 18% of that. The field includes the top 50 golfers on the planet, minus Bryson who WD due to injury. Sure there will be plenty of big dogs, but that doesn’t mean we won’t be playing some lotto tickets.
Speaking of adapting to the weather conditions - this weekend ain’t looking so good.
Does this affect who we pick? Ehh, maybe a little. But rain or shine, some of the numbers on these guys is too good to pass up. Let’s get into it.
Horses:
Collin Morikawa +1400 — By now, you should already know that Collin is our favorite golfer, and we’ll probably be playing him in just about every tournament. If you’re with us, great. If not - keep scrolling.
Collin already has 4 top 5 finishes on tour this season. The most recent being 2nd at the Genesis which was won by Steamin Joaquin Niemann (our 60/1 winner). He’s since taken the last two weeks off. Absolutely love that he’s nice and rested.
Solids:
Brooks Koepka +3300 — If Morikawa is our favorite golfer, then Brooks is our second (although we don’t love the blonde hair). Brooks’ putting has been BAD. After his strong showing at the WMPO finishing 3rd, he followed it up with a missed cut (MC). Then he did okay at The Honda Classic with a 16th finish, but he really never fixed the putting problem. So why are we on him? Because he took last week off, and we will be kicking ourselves if this is the week the putting gets figured out. He also has most likely had this one on his mind for a bit, as Brooks had to WD last year due to injury. Brooks also has had success at The Players, and is one of 8 golfers to hold the course record with a round of 63 in 2018. Just feels like a Brooks kinda week…
Joran Spieth +4000 — Nothing gets the heart rate going like investing in Jordan Spieth. Now add some rain to that for 3 days - sounds like a fucking blast. Spieth can make the ugly look beautiful, and there’s potential for that this weekend given the forecast. We can’t pass up a chance on Jordan at this number. Especially considering he’s played some good golf recently (finished 2nd at Pebble Beach last month).
Shane Lowry +4500 — Shane is scrappy, and that’s a guy you want on your card going into this potential muddy weekend. We had him at The Honda Classic two weeks ago where he finished 2nd behind Straka. Not bad for his first start stateside in 2022.
Long-shots:
Will Zalatoris +5000 — The trendy pick last weekend for the API at 30/1. Z started strong, but blew up Friday and never recovered. He’s a damn good golfer, so getting him in this bounce back spot at a better number due to his poor performance, we just can not pass up.
Abraham Ancer +6600 — Abe is another one of our guys. Third favorite? Perhaps. Regardless, this is a good spot to take a swing on Ancer. He hasn’t finished better than 35th in 2022 (played in 4 tournaments). Just took a few weeks off to get right. Love it.
Webb Simpson +8000 — Maybe there’s a reason Webb is not getting any respect from Vegas. Is it because he hasn’t played in over a month and this is not the ideal course to shake off the rust? Probably. But Webb won here in 2018, so we’ll get our beak wet at 80/1 solely based off that.
Alex Noren +11000 — Noren has been the definition of solid. Took last week off, because he’s been grinding in 2022. Alex played in 5 tournaments over a span of 6 weeks. He also posted a 6th and 5th place finished in 2 of the last 3.
Not feeling any of our picks? No worries. Here are some others you can tail:
NCAAB Conference Tournaments
One of the more underrated weeks of the year for a true degenerate gambler. 32 Conference Tournaments within a two week span. 11 down, 21 more to go. There is nothing like loading up on appetizers before the big feast. We’ll break down a few of the more premier tourneys - let’s start with the most competitive ones:
Big 12
Realistically, we think there are four teams who could win the Big 12, and those would be the top 4 seeds. We think this will come down to the winner of the likely semifinal matchup between Baylor (+150) and Texas Tech (+350), and this is a spot we will be dying to take Baylor. They’re 0-2 against Texas Tech, and if you’ve learned anything from us - we always say it’s tough to beat the same team 3 times (see Rams/Niners NFC Championship). Look for the public to get cute and back Tech. Not that Baylor would need any added motivation, but winning the Big 12 would make the Bears a lock for the 1 Seed in the big dance.
The Pick: Baylor +150
Big 10
Top to bottom the best tourney to follow this weekend. Purdue (+150) is the favorite, but you can always count on them to fold in a big game. Iowa (+400) as the five seed is fishy enough to deserve a look. Co-Big 10 regular season champs Illinois (+400) and Wisconsin (+600) feel like a trap. So what’s a gambler to do? Lean into the perfect narrative, and what could be more perfect than a Wisconsin vs. Michigan (+1400) rematch for the championship?! Juwan Howard will return after serving a five-game suspension for throwing hands at a Wisconsin assistant coach. Say hello to the bad guy. Michigan is going to be playing for their lives as a bubble team - we like them to make some noise.
The Pick: Michigan +1400
SEC
Spoiler alert - if Kentucky (+150) doesn’t walk away as SEC Champs, we’ll be taking them to win it all… and we don’t see them taking it home this weekend. Auburn (+200) would be the next logical pick, but they’ve looked anything but impressive when playing away from home. And thus, we have our sights focused solely on Tennessee (+350). Talk about respect - the Vols would have to beat two top 10 teams back to back if they want to win the SEC. Vegas is putting a short number on and we’re taking a big swing at it.
The Pick: Tennessee +350
ACC
Watching UNC ruin Coach K’s going away party was one of the most joyous moments you can imagine. What’s better than watching some Duke brat dressed as Big Bird who camped out for 2 weeks cry their eyes out? The cherry on top was when they got yelled at by one of the biggest prick “legends” in college basketball history during his going away speech. But if you’ve hated Duke long enough, you know this won’t last. Look for the Blue Devils to cruise through this weak conference and avenge the embarrassing loss.
The Pick: Duke -150
Pac-12
It’s going to come down to UCLA (+125) or Arizona (-150). No shame in taking either of these teams, but we’re going to throw a dart with Oregon (+2000). The Ducks have been one of the biggest disappoints this year, and they’re fresh off getting blown out by Washington State. Top that off with one of their best players being out for the tournament with a non-Covid illness and they’re still the 4th best odds. Buy low! (.5 a unit here, because there’s a chance they lose in the first round lol)
The Pick: Oregon +2000
Big East
Let’s get a little chalky with a favorite: Villanova (+100). Providence (+350) is getting zero respect as the 1 seed - we aren’t falling for that trap.
AAC
No need to go crazy on an AAC tournament write-up. Memphis +300. They’re hitting a groove and are currently a bubble team in need of a respectable showing in order to make the big dance.
There is mayhem on the horizon, and the Degenerate is heating up with its daily picks. Get on twitter and follow us @thedegenweekly if you’re interested in tailing. You can also follow our picks through the Action Network app. Peep the stats below:
