“One who makes no mistakes, makes nothing at all” - Casanova
Some people will argue that Michelangelo’s Sistine Chapel is the most beautiful work of art in human history. Other’s might say Van Gough’s Starry night, and it’s impossible not to include the Mona Lisa to this list. For us…it’s a Bracket.
At this exact moment - nothing in the world is more beautiful and pure. Perfect in every way, but the true beauty is that it’s about to be ripped to shreds by some unknown/unexpected team that no one saw coming. That’s what makes this time of year so magical. Roughly 70 million people will fill out a bracket and just about all of them will end up in piss. But who cares!
Tomorrow is a degenerate gamblers Christmas morning. So lets have a day and gamble our faces off (responsibly).
A few house keeping notes before we jump in. This weekend is simply too action packed and full of surprises to try and list all our plays in the newsletter.
If you want to day by day and game by game updates, the best way is Twitter (@thedegenweekly; @steaakfriend, @greg_gogodino).
This week we will be breaking things down on a Region by Region basis. Letting you know our favorite 1st round bets, some sleepers and our (subject to change) Final Four.
South Region
Alabama is the #1 overall seed and has the 2nd best odds to win it all at +750. They didn’t even break a sweat while cruising through the SEC Tournament, and are heavily favored to win the South at +150. If you want to put on your tin foil hat for a moment - one of the takes we have on Bama is that the NCAA is going to do everything they can to make sure this team doesn’t show up in the Final Four. Although Brandon Miller hasn’t been charged, the last thing the NCAA wants is for his role in a murder case to get anymore oxygen.
Conspiracies aside, Bama is by far the best team in this region. We think Baylor and Arizona are ripe for an upset, leaving some value in a few of the lower seeds.
Best Bets:
Virginia Furman Over 132 (Degen) - This is the first total in the 130’s with Virginia involved that I’ve seen in a while. Most have been in the low 120’s, and gone under. This makes me think Furman scores. Everyone likes the dog to cover, but I’ll just be hoping both teams can score.
SDSU - 5.5 (Degen) - People love a 12 > 5 and no team is trendier than Charleston, but the line keeps moving in SDSU’s favor. This team is scrappy and I am in love.
Maryland +2 (Jake) - Bob Huggins and WVU always get some extra love come the big dance, but everyone is overlooking a quality Maryland team here.
UCSB +10.5 (Greg) - Baylor was bounced early in the Big 12, and UCSB is an easy team write-off, but the splits favor UCSB and I haven’t seen anyone picking them for an upset against a team who is ripe for it.
Creighton -6.5 (Greg) - Bounce back after one of the more embarrassing showings of the season for Creighton in the Big East Tourney.
Favorite sleeper:
Missouri (Degen) - This team is like shrooms. You’re either getting absolute chaos and a grand ole time as they put up 90 points, or they’re getting blown out and you think everyone’s out to get you. I feel like we’re in for a good trip.
Utah St (Jake) - Not too bizarre to see the #10 seed favored over the #7, but it’s a signal that USU can make a little noise.
Princeton (Greg) - The last time an Ivy League team won a Tournament game was 2016, feels like it’s due!
Best value to win the region:
SDSU +1500 (Degen) - Defense wins championships.
Bama +150 (Jake) - Bama = Wagon and no one in this region can stop them.
Creighton +850 (Greg/Jake) - Good value if Bama can’t lock it up. Baylor/Zona primed for upset.
East Region
Purdue and Marquette stand as favorites above the rest, but Duke is getting hot at the right time and seem to be a trendy pick. Michigan State, Kentucky, Memphis and Tennessee all offer quality programs who wouldn’t shock anyone if they were able to make a strong run. This should be one of the more exciting regions with a thicc list of contenders, and a few potential Cinderella’s.
Best Bets:
FAU +2 (Degen) - Memphis is getting a ton of love after beating Houston in their conference championship, but FAU is scrappy and that number seems short.
Oral Roberts +6 (Jake) - Probably the most slept on 12 Seed of the bracket with a reverse line move.
Vermont +11 (Greg) - A 15 seed is only getting +11 against a 2 Seed that just won the Big East? Vermont with 43% of the bets but 63% of the $ is what I love to see.
Favorite Sleeper:
Providence (Degen) - Everyone loves Providence at home, but hates them on the road. Neutral court - so you know what that means. Let’s follow Jakes lead and fade the blue bloods.
USC (Jake) - My theme this year has been to fade the blue bloods and absolutely no one is talking about USC.
Michigan State (Greg) - I’m not buying Marquette or Kansas State, which means Izzo and Co. could be a sneaky pick to make a run. So yea…fuck Jake.
Best value to win the region:
Marquette +370 (Degen): Backing SDSU with their defense, so I’ll zag with some offense. Marquette is a nightmare to defend and can shoot from anywhere.
Purdue +300 (Jake/Greg): Despite winning the Big 10, everyone still thinks Purdue is a one man team (they are) that’s going to get upset. This might finally be the year where Purdue makes a run to the Final Four.
Midwest Region
Houston is coming off a blowout loss to Memphis, and an injury to one of their best players, but they still stand as the Vegas favorite at +500 to win it all. This region is loaded with a bunch of the public favorites to pull an upset - mainly Drake and Kent State. With Texas becoming a certified wagon after winning Big 12, Houston might have a problem.
Best Bets:
Kennesaw St +12.5 (Degen) - Less to do with Kennesaw and more about fading a fraudulent Xavier team. Give me the hungry dog who’s happy to be here.
Colgate +13.5 (Jake) - They can get hot on offense and everyone thinks it’s a cakewalk for Texas who just beat Kansas by 20.
Iowa St/Pitt Under 130.5 (Greg) - Maybe a little public brain but with this matchup I can’t help but jump on the under. Line is already moving down.
Favorite Sleeper:
Penn State (Degen) - Call me a prisoner of the moment, but I loved watching this team in the Big 10 Tourney. They are fast, fearless and fun. Got that dog in ‘em too.
Pitt (Jake) - Every once in a while a play-in team makes a run. Pitt could be it.
Auburn (Greg) - I’ve had a crush on Bruce Pearl and this team all year. They have really struggled to close out tight games, but this is a new season.
Best value to win the region:
Houston +135 (Degen/Jake) - The most slept on 1 seed/odds on favorite in recent memory. Losing their conference tourney lowered their stock in the publics eye, so we will buy some shares.
Miami +2000 (Greg) - I know Houston is the right play, but I just can’t help myself. Miami has been one of those teams that everyone has struggled to pin down this year from a gambling perspective. Just need a piece if a run like last year comes together again.
West Region
In our opinion, this is the best region in the tournament. Kansas, UConn, Gonzaga, UCLA. Murder’s row and packed with great story lines. Can Kansas defend their title? Can UCLA overcome a massive injury? Does Gonzaga finally close? Will UConn continue to be UCant? What a time to be alive!
Best Bets:
Arkansas (Degen) - Using my basketball brain after watching Illinois. I was not impressed at all, and hate their coach. Give me the Muss Bus and a scrappy SEC team with something to prove. The S might be silent in Illinois, but it is loud in what they are as a team - SOFT! (Zing!)
Saint Mary’s -4.5 (Jake) - Tough not to love VCU after SMC got embarrassed by Gonzaga, but everyones favorite Cinderella is going down early.
Boise State +1.5 (Greg) - This is more of a Northwestern fade than anything. NW had some big wins in the middle of the season, but struggled since. Love them for an early exit.
Favorite Sleeper:
TCU (Degen) - Huge blow with Lampkin leaving the team, but I still think TCU has enough pride and grit to make for a tough out.
Boise State (Jake) - One of the least trendy teams in the Tourney. 15-15-2 ATS is no reason for any gambler to like them. Pure contrarian here.
Grand Canyon (Greg) - Prisoner of the moment. I had them to win the WAC, watched one game, and now I’m in love.
Best value to win the region:
UConn (Degen/Jake/Greg) - 10 unit, mega-whale, collab play alert! (Kidding) But UConn just got humbled and we think there is a ton of value on them in this spot.
We’ll be coming to you again next Thursday around this same time as the Sweet 16 kicks off, but before we go - here are a few notable future tickets we’re on to win the whole thing. Let’s see how many of these are alive next week.
UConn +2500 (Squad ride)
Marquette +4000 (Degen) - Taken earlier in the season
Creighton +4000 (Greg)
Purdue +1200 (Squad ride)
UCLA +2000 (Greg/Brandon) - Bet back in November, should cash out after the Jaylen Clark injury, but we’ll never forgive ourselves if they make a run.