To the Divisional Round We Go!
Four Heavyweight Bouts
Welp, Super Wild Card Weekend was a dud. Packed with more chalk than an elementary school sidewalk. Favorites went 5/6 and the only upset was the trendiest dog of the weekend in SF. To be honest, we were lucky to go 3-3. We hated the board last weekend and knew the waters would be choppy for us contrarians. It should have been a bloodbath, but we made it out alive. This week…we’re feeling good.
One positive to take away the chalk weekend is that it set the stage for a phenomenal batch of four games this round. Per @EpKap - This is the first time since 1971 that all Divisional Round favorites are favored by 6 or fewer points. Get ready to sit back and enjoy because the NFL simply doesn’t get any better than this.
NFL Divisional Round
Current Record: 89-69-2 YTD
Goodnight, Sweet Prince - Bengals @ Titans -3.5 Total 47.5
When the matchups were determined on Sunday, Greg texted me and asked what I thought the Titans/Bengals spread would be. “Titans -3.5” I replied. He said if it’s anything lower, that means we go Bengals. It opened right on the nose Monday morning. I texted Greg immediately “Titans ML is my best bet”.
As much as I love Joe Burrow, I just can’t help but continue to fade Burrow. It’s a serious disease that I wish there was a cure for. The Bengals were given a lot of respect from the oddsmakers last weekend, as they opened up as a 6.5 point favorite in Burrow’s first playoff game. They covered and took care of business (barely). I thought everyone would be chomping at the bit to get Burrow as an underdog in Tennessee, but apparently I was wrong. The Bengals are not the trendy dog I had hoped for. It doesn’t matter. My mind is made up and I shall not waiver.
I still can’t believe the Titans are the 1 seed in the AFC. Mike Vrabel might be a lock for the coach of year. If you look back on this season, no team had a better stretch of wins than the Titans did. They beat the Bills, Chiefs, Colts, Rams and Saints. The craziest part? They did most of it without Derek Henry (who’s expected to be back for this game). This pick is not really our style, but it just feels right. The Titans are getting both public and sharp money, and they have the best RB in the league coming back from injury. Typically we sell good news, but this week we are going to be buyers. Fun fact: Vrabel is 8-0 when having more than 8 days to prepare. Don’t be scared of the money line juice – you don’t want to be exposed to a Burrow backdoor.
The Pick: Titans ML (Brandon’s Best Bet)
Baby it’s Cold Outside - Niners @ Packers -6 Total 47.5
Welcome to the most lopsided game of the week (on paper). Considering everything else sits around a field goal, that’s not saying much. When these teams faced off back in Week 3, San Fran scored to take the lead late, but left just a bit too much time (37 whole seconds) and Rodgers snapped back with a quick drive leading to a walk off field goal. The more important walk down memory lane was in the 2019 Season. That year the 49ers manhandled Green Bay both in the regular season and in the NFC Championship. You can be damn sure that Rodgers remembers, even if you don’t.
The Packers are 8-0 at home this year and now we’re talking about a January Lambeau game?! Of course the public is going to be on Green Bay. Forecast for kickoff is going to be single digits, and Jimmy G has never started in a game under 32 degrees. We want to back SF at +6 but two things are stopping us. Number 1: simply put, we don’t see the Packers losing this one and Number 2: the way SF began to crumble starting with Jimmy G’s pick last weekend in Dallas. Pucker city.
Now on the Green Bay side, -6 is a bit too rich for our blood. Circa Sportsbook was quoted this week as saying they have the most money on the Niners but the most tickets on the Packers. Public bettors beware. We’re having a tough time picking a side. What we should do is lay it with the -245 ML, but what’s really catching our eye is the total. The public loves going under when it’s cold, but what they forgot that it isn’t the temperature that affects the scoring…it’s the wind! And for Sunday we are looking at 5mph. That’s nothing.
The Pick: Over 47.5
In Tom We Trust - Rams @ Bucs -3 Total 48
The bookie gets what the bookie wants. We at the Degen do not love the Bucs this week, but we never doubt our guy. If he wants the Bucs, then it’s the Bucs that get bet.
Cannot even begin to express how shocked we are to see that Tom Brady in a home playoff game is the contrarian play. When this matchup was set, our first thought was that Tampa would be getting every cent of public money. The main reasons being they’ve got the rest and travel advantage. The Rams played on Monday night, and now have to travel cross country for the early Sunday game. We also thought that people wouldn’t be that confident in Stafford considering he just won his first playoff game in his 13th season. Sure they beat the breaks off Arizona, but all the talk was how bad Kyler and the Cardinals looked, rather than how good the Rams did. Now you’ve got two significant injuries to Tampa’s O line, and they’re already down Godwin (ACL) and Antonio Brown (nutjob). So to talk ourselves out of the Rams, we are going to focus on buying the bad news that is the Bucs injuries.
We’ll be honest, deep down…we still think the Rams cover. Part of us wants to get cute and try middling this thing with Rams +4 (buying 1 pt) and Bucs ML. But the Divisional Round isn’t time for puppy play. In the Bookie (and Tom) we trust.
The Pick: Bucs ML (Bookies Pick of the Week)
Changing of the Guard? - Bills @ Chiefs -2.5 Total 54
This is about as difficult of a pick as you can make. Impossible not to love both these teams. From a Super Bowl Odds perspective, they’ve been the class of the NFL nearly all season long. And here we go - yet another rematch game. The Bills won convincingly back in week 5, but as soon as they slayed their dragon they the entered a nearly two month slump going 3-5 in their next 8 games. Quite the hangover.
Despite this rough patch, the oddsmakers didn’t waiver on Buffalo, keeping them listed as one of their Super Bowl favorites through it all. From the embarrassing loss to the Jags, to the injury to CB Tre’Davious White, even through the beatdown from the Colts. They knew come seasons end, the Bills would be one of the elites left. The big problem is the only team getting more respect is the Chiefs. Somehow they’re 0-3 against the remaining AFC opponents, and yet they are still the favorite to win the conference.
The total sitting at 54 is making us salivate because it means Vegas sees this one as a back and forth shootout. We love Josh Allen, we love Buffalo, and we love Bills mafia. This team is going to get over the hump and win a Super Bowl…next year. For now, we are riding the healthier team, the more experienced coach, home field, and revenge. Don’t fail us now Mahomes!
The Pick: Chiefs ML (Greg’s Best Bet)