Underdog Season
NFL Week 3 & College Football Week 4
Chop wood, carry water
Another winning week
We warned you that last weeks board was tough, and we had a difficult time coming up with our plays. To go 3-2 in NFL and CFB feels like massive success in our book. Gritty, gritty week. The ants go marching on.
If Week 2 is overreaction week, then Week 3 is “what the hell is actually going on?” week.
Love this Tweet - it’s exactly right. We only have a two week sample size, and with teams playing fewer starters in the pre-season, it’s difficult to actually assess who’s for real and what’s a fugazi. Despite the dangerous undertone, we are adding an additional play this week, because we feel like we’re reading the board fairly well. Danger, shmanger- let’s press! (tiny press, like you’re toasting a panini).
UPDATE: All of our daily streams which are called “The Board Review” will now be in podcast form. This was typically published as a VOD on Twitch and YouTube, but people prefer listening to just the audio in podcast form. You spoke, we listened.
Now you can find The Board Review on Apple and Spotify, or wherever you listen to your podcasts.
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 8-2 (+8.44 Units)
CFB: 9-6 (+2.15 Units)
NFL WEEK 3
It’s times like this that make you wonder what ever happened to the Baja Men, because someone let just about every gosh dang dog out last week.
The question now, as we enter Week 3 is if the dogs continue to bite, or if we see a bit of regression to the mean. We are leaning into some of our favorite dogs and what we hope are the less trendy ones who seem down and out. Still tough to get there with some of the bigger favorites, but the time will come.
Dolphins at Seahawks -4.5 Total 41.5 (Degen’s Best Bet) YTD: 1-1
If you’ve followed us for a while, you already know we are big advocates of “buying bad news”. When a star player is out that impacts the spread, you get a big overreaction in the market. But the biggest overreaction comes from the betting public and casual fan. It’s as if the team with the backup(s) shouldn’t even show up to play. We saw it in Week 1 with CMC out for the Niners, and again last with Malik Willis starting for the Green Bay Packers. We’ve gotten a bit soft in our old age and didn’t have the gall to play the Pack (Steak was on the Niners), but it at least kept us off the Colts. Now we aren’t saying to go out there and blindly bet on every team that is decimated with injuries. We try to be somewhat selective.
The Dolphins had my attention when Tua went down. Now they travel cross-country to play in the toughest environment in the NFL. Given how bad Miami looked on Thursday Night Football against the Bills even before his injury - I thought to myself that nobody would be quick to back this team in the coming weeks.
I may have been wrong, because the Fins opened +6 in Seattle and someone hit them early, as it’s down to 4.5 now.
The Seahawks started the year with two somewhat gritty wins. Denver made them sweat in the 1H and came away with a push (+6). Then the Patriots took them to OT and also pushed (+3). Geno statistically had one of the best performances by a QB in Week 2. But what do both of those games have in common? The opponents are expected to be two of the worst in the league. 2-0 is 2-0, but I’m not overreacting to anything Seahawks related given who they played. I do think Geno showed some dog and made huge plays when needed on the road last week. With time and reps in this new OC’s system, he could be a sneaky look for MVP (75/1). Did I just contradict myself by saying I wasn’t going to overreact? Maybe. But as Major Payne once said, don’t push the maybe, baby.
I’m comfortable backing Skyler and Mike McDaniel here. Of course I wish I got the 6, but timing the market isn’t my forte. Extra time to prepare, enough playmakers on offense, and desperation mode to show the fans and league that despite Tua’s injury, their season is far from over. Skyler experienced tough atmosphere on the road before. He started at Buffalo in a Wild Card game in 2023. The Dolphins were 14 point underdogs and they lost 34-31. I think the Fins will bring their best effort this weekend.
The Pick: Dolphins +4.5 (-110)
Eagles at Saints -3 Total 49.5 (Greg’s Best Bet) YTD: 2-0
The vibes are back in The Big Easy. Derek Carr is on fire and the Saints have put up 40+ in back to back games. The new blood at OC with Klint Kubiak has lit a fire under an offenses ass that got stagnant in the 18 year tenure of former OC Pete Carmichael.
Going into last week the Saints were rated as the 24th best team in the NFL, now they are 8th. A massive unprecedented (can we use that word again now that Covid is over?) upgrade for a one week period. Ticket prices are $160 just to step into the Super Dome, and the atmosphere is going to be intense. So why fade the hottest team so far this season?
Going into this year Dennis Allen was the favorite for first coach fired. His hot seat has been extinguished, and now Sirianni’s is heating up. I’ll be very clear, and I’ve said it before - I am not a Sirianni guy. He has a perfect mix of entitlement and overconfidence that I find repulsive.
Although the Saints have come out gangbusters, they haven’t gone up against a team that can run the ball. The Panthers are a joke and the Cowboys O-line is a shell of what it was last year. You can be certain after Monday Night’s collapse and AJ Brown’s injury the Eagles get back to meat and potatoes.
I have more than enough concerns around the Eagles secondary. Rasheed Shaheed will be one of the trendiest player props this weekend. But I think Philly is going to RUN THE DAMN BALL and eat up a ton of clock.
Saquon could very well be a man possessed after costing his team the W in primetime, and Jalen Hurst looks like whatever injury was pestering him last year is long gone as he’s making plays left and right with his legs.
Prior to the the loss, the Eagles were -2.5 on the lookahead line. It’s completely understandable that no AJ Brown for another week pushed this to a pick ‘em, but the Saints hype has gotten out of control.
At the end of the day, it’s Derek Carr and Dennis Allen. Maybe they’re not terrible, but not a team I believe in. Not a team who should be in the highest tier of the NFC, where they currently stand.
Just one of those plays where I have to trust my gut, and my gut is screaming: Go Birds!
The Pick: Eagles +3 (-120)
Lions at Cardinals +3 Total 51.5 (Steak’s Best Bet) YTD: 2-0
Hot Take Steak: What if The Lions just aren’t that good.
Something feels off watching them and Steak’s looking to pounce before the market catches up to it.
After the NFC Championship run last year they are the favorites everywhere they go. It’s one thing to have modest expectations, it’s entirely another to have a Super Bowl or bust mentality.
Yes they could have easily won against the Bucs and the game came down to the wire. BUT… they were TD+ favorites in a game with a 50+ total and only managed to score 16 points.
One of their biggest questions in the offseason for the Lions was if Jameson Williams could perform as a true #2 WR and open up the offense. He’s been amazing with a 50 yard play in both games this year.
And yet the Lions could literally be an OT coin flip away from 0-2.
The Pick: Cardinals +3 (-115)
Panthers at Raiders -5 Total 40
I’m not sure you could script a worse scenario than what is unfolding in Carolina right now. And yet, people are coming to the counter - FOR A THRID STRAIGHT WEEK - to back the Cats.
Imagine hiring a new Head Coach primarily to develop the first round pick that you sold the farm for, only to bench said QB after 2 Weeks. Lunacy.
Say it with us: Andy Dalton is not the answer. Andy Dalton is not fixing this team. Andy Dalton is Andy Dalton.
Dave Canales got a ton of credit for developing “lost causes” Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield, and you can’t take that away from him. But how are those guys performing without him? Thriving at 2-0.
Bryce Young is not the root of your problems, Dave Canales is not a miracle worker. Owner David Tepper is the problem, and until he’s gone this team is nothing but a fade for us.
The Pick: Raiders -5 (-110)
Ravens at Cowboys +1 Total 48.5
It may sound like a cohesive voice at The Degenerate, but behind the scenes it’s literally thousands of text on a weekly basis. Like a suit you traveled to a wedding with - it needs ironing before the big dance. We were split 2-1 on the Cowboys with me, Greg, being the odd man out.
But I was the odd man out for Cowboys/Browns Week 1, and that turned out in our favor. The Pug and the English Bulldog barked some big concerns in Balty and sold me on Dallas for another week.
There are problems in Baltimore. And yes, they were a toe short of OT in Kansas City and blew 13 point 4th Quarter lead (at home) against the Raiders. That is not your typical John Harbaugh. The defense has struggled. If you can force Garner Minshew to throw the ball almost 40 times and come away with a loss I don’t know what to say.
Their DC from last year left for Seattle, their second pick to fill the spot was Anthony Weaver and he went to Miami. So now their Bronze Medal, Zach Orr, is leading the charge, and things are not going well.
We hear you, I hear you - “there is no way they start 0-3”, but we think things could get worse. After Dallas, the Ravens play the Bills and Bengals. That Raiders loss could have a ripple effect on the rest of the season.
The Pick: Cowboys+1 (-110)
Come on Over, Over: Bears at Colts -1.5 Total 43.5
After Overs went 9-7 in Week 1, the script flipped and the Unders printed in Week 2 going 5-10-1. Shame on us for picking one of the highest scoring games of the weekend as an Under. But alas, we move on.
A TD has yet to be thrown by a Rookie QB, and after another lackluster performance on Sunday Night, Caleb Williams is starting to get some shade thrown in his direction.
The “Generation Talent” has yet to find the end zone, but we think a line of 43.5 signals that it might be his time. The Colts have their own problems putting up a measly 10 points against a Packers D that can easily be exploited.
It’s get right time for these two underperforming offenses in Indy.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 4
The theme for this week: Letdown Spots
FRIDAY NIGHT BONUS PLAYS:
Steak: San Jose St at Washington St -12.5
It’s not a foolproof system (what is?) but we have to stay true to ourselves and attack the letdown spots. Washington St just won the Apple Cup as a 6 point underdog against rival Washington on a neutral field. Now they come home on a short week play a SJSU team that is 3-0 ATS. You just saw App St go down last night as a touchdown favorite, so we hope lighting can strike twice.
The Pick: SJSU +12.5 (-110)
Degen: Illinois at Nebraska -7.5 Total 43
Both of these teams are off to very nice starts this season. Illinois had the big home win against Kansas, and Nebraska got revenge against Colorado. I lean the dog here, but can’t quite push the button. I’m not sold on Luke Altmyer being capable of making enough plays against this Nebraska defense in the first road game of the season. On the flip side, I also think we may see a little regression from Nebraskas freshman QB Dylan Raiola. This also might be the best defense he’s faced all season.
The Pick: UNDER 43 (-110)
Arkansas St at Iowa St -21.5
If you were on twitter last weekend, you probably saw Arkansas St all over the feed. They played Michigan tough and intercepted Davis Warren 5 (!) times. Now they’re on the road again against an Iowa St team that’s rested and had a HUGE comeback win against Iowa. We had the Cyclones in that game, and it was one hell of a sweat. The offense could not move the ball the entire first half, but figured out the defense late, and stepped up big. We don’t typically like betting on teams coming off a BYE, but this is a bad spot for Arkansas St being on the road in Big 10 territory again, and we feel a good spot for Iowa St’s offense to put on a show. That 51.5 total sure is telling us something…
The Pick: Iowa St -21 (-115)
Memphis at Navy +9.5
Letdown spot for Memphis after just beating FSU in Tallahassee. That was a huge win for their program, despite how pathetic the Seminoles are. Meanwhile Navy was sitting at home doing push ups and preparing. Navy ran the ball 51 times in their win against Temple. The last thing you want to do after a big win is travel to face a military school that is going to play disciplined football as a hungry home dog.
The Pick: Navy +9.5 (-110)
Arizona St at Texas Tech -3
Az St just had a big win in a standalone game at Texas St. Now if you’re not tapped into College Football, you may not think that sounds like a tough opponent, but Texas St has some hype this year. The Sun Devils fought back from a 21-7 deficit to win a gritty (love that word) game on the road. Now they have to pack their bags again and go to Lubbock, Texas. Weird place to play, and against a team that just scored 66 points. We could be getting duped here given how well Texas Tech just responded after their loss to Washington St, but we’ll take our chances.
The Pick: Texas Tech -3 (-110)
Toledo at Western Kentucky +2.5
This one is pretty simple. How the fuck do we not fade Toledo after their win last week? Going into Mississippi State as a 10.5 point underdog and winning 41-17 has to be one of the biggest wins in Toledo’s history. It was an absolute beatdown too. They scored 28 points in the first half and never let up. System play.
The Pick: WKU +2.5 (-110)
Tennessee at Oklahoma +7 Total 57
I tweeted this out yesterday as my best bet of the weekend. You can watch the video breakdown on YouTube.
The Pick: Under 57 (-110) - MGM
RECAP:
NFL
Dolphins +4.5 (-110) - Degen’s Best Bet
Eagles +3 (-120) - Gregs Best Bet
Cardinals +3 (-115) - Steaks Best Bet
Raiders -5 (-110)
Cowboys +1 (-110)
Bears/Colts OVER 43.5 (-110)
CFB
Friday Night Bonus Bets
Steak: San Jose St +12.5 (-110)
Degen: Illinois/Nebraska UNDER 43 (-110)
Iowa st -21 (-110) - Drafkings
Navy +9.5 (-110)
Texas Tech -3 (-110)
Western Kentucky +2.5 (-110)
Under 57 (-110)