Sunday Best Bets full faded
Keep on Keepin’ on
Lost the vig in College Football and burned through a pile of money on Sunday.
The NFL is in full force and we are struggling to find our footing. Felt good to get the total in the Jags game, but going 0-3 on best bets is just embarrassing.
Need a get right week. Is this the one? Lord we hope so.
We got teams off of a BYE, we got fired coaches, and we are more motivated than ever to get back in the green.
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Current Record YTD:
NFL: 13-13 (-3.39 Units)
CFB: 23-12 (+8.67 Units)
NFL WEEK 6
In China it’s the Year of the Dragon. In the NFL it’s the year of the dog. Spreads are tight. Water tight, like a ducks ass. In fact, due to the amount of dogs barking - this has been the tightest spreads have been in 25 years.
This feels like a trend that’s due to regress to the mean, but in no way, shape, or form are we trying time the market.
Jags vs Bears -1.5 Total 44.5 (Degen’s Best Bet) YTD: 1-4
Let’s just cut to the chase - this is beyond a piss poor performance from me. I’m no sports betting guru by any means, but I just can’t stomach this pathetic best bet record. The only bright side is that there’s a lot of season left to turn this shit around. And it starts with…Doug Pederson and Trevor Lawrence (GULP). That’s right. I’m going back to London, but this time I ain’t leaving without some tea and crumpets.
Last week the Jets were my best bet as a +2.5 dog, and they didn’t bark. That team is pathetic, and to be totally honest, the Jags aren’t THAT far off. But I’m not just doing this to be contrarian. I’m not doing it to get cute. I’m doing this because I truly do not think the Jags are as bad as their record indicates. I do not think they’re a (potentially) 1-5 football team. 2-4? Sure. 1-5? Nah. This is a team that could’ve won in Houston and Miami. This defense might be legitimately bad, but the offense got exactly what they needed last week with the Colts coming into town. A Jags offense that had scored 17, 13, 10 and 20 points FINALLY lit up the score board with 37. Trevor also had his best game of the season with 370 passing yards. Outperforming Joe Flacco is no easy task! As my grandpa used to say “sometimes you gotta play patty cake before you can fuck the prom queen” or something like that.
Now, the same can be said for the Bears offense. Caleb haters were pounding their chests through the first two weeks of the season. Then Chicago played the Colts, Rams and Panthers. Each week the Bears improved offensively, and the defense continues to show they’re a top unit in the league. If you compare the rosters, there’s no debate that the Bears are the better team despite having a rookie QB. So in my opinion, the opening line of Chicago -2.5 on a neutral makes total sense. The one advantage that Jacksonville does have here (which I’m sure you’ve heard 100 times) is that they’ve done this London trip quite a few times. I do think there’s something there with this narrative, and I love that the Jags found a little bit of their offensive swagger before heading across the Atlantic Ocean.
Pederson and Eberflus are two head coaches that I don’t really respect, but I’m more confident in Doug to come out victorious with his back against the wall and job on the line. I say the Bears stock is at their highest, and the Jags are in full BUY mode.
The Pick: Jags +1.5 (-110) - DK
Browns at Eagles -9.5 Total 42.5 (Greg’s Best Bet) YTD: 4-1
First official Map Play of the year!
“What the hell is a map play?” For those of you who are new here - a Map Play is essentially zeroing in on a spot (before the season starts) where I recognize a game that is ideal to fade a team based on their schedule. We found some success with this last year (believe the record was 3-1, chat can confirm).
As if three consecutive road games for the Browns wasn’t enough - this week they have back-to-back divisional games against the Bengals and Ravens. Not only that, but the Eagles are coming off a Bye.
Yes, the Browns are terrible. Deshaun Watson has looked like one of the worst QB’s in the NFL. This pick has nothing to do with all that. I took the Eagles last week at -7 and I’m adding another unit on them at -9.5 this week.
It genuinely pains me to go back to Sirianni for a best bet. But a system is a system. Although I despise him, you simply can’t script a better get right spot for the Eagles with the team getting healthy and the new coordinators getting a much needed break to reevaluate and make the necessary mid-season corrections.
The Browns have been locked in the trenches. Practice, travel, get embarrassed. Rinse. Repeat. Right now they are drowning and the NFL is doing them no favors with a brutal schedule. Last week the wheels fell off, this week it’s the axles.
With all the dogs covering this year, needing the struggling bird gang to cover the biggest spread of the weekend is a big ask, especially with a low total. Expectations are at a 3-year low for the City of Brotherly Love and they’ll be ripe for a fade in the very near future. Just not now. Not at home, not off a Bye, and not against one of the most disappointing teams in the 2024 season.
This is the LAST TIME I’m betting Philly this year, so why not go out with a bang.
The Pick: Eagles -9.5 (-110) FD
Colts at Titans -2.5 Total 42.5 (Steak’s Best Bet) YTD: 2-3
Steak stays sharp. He was on this one from the jump when it was Titans +1. Unfortunately two major services released the Titans (per Chernoff) as short dogs and the line did a complete 180.
Back-to-back divisional road games for the Colts could spell disaster. Although Joe Flacco has looked great, the problem isn’t with their offense. Their defense can’t find a way to stop anyone.
Caleb Williams had his breakout game against in Indy three weeks ago
Justin Fields had a career day two weeks ago
Trevor Lawrence and the Jags put up as season high 37 points last week
The Colts defense has blood in the water and Steak is swarming for fresh meat.
The Pick: Titans -2.5 (-120) FD
Lion at Cowboys +3 (-105) Total 52.5
Let’s be clear: we hate that three of our picks are backing teams with early BYE weeks. It’s certainly not how we drew it up, but it’s how we are playing it out.
Lions OC Ben Johnson has shown us time and time again this year that his focus for the game plan is to attack opponents where they are weakest. Against a Bucs D with injuries in the secondary Goff threw 55 times. Two weeks later against a Seattle front 7 that was banged up he had 18 attempts.
The Cowboys D-Line is missing four starters. Ben must be licking his chops, and we expect see a heavy dose of runs with Gibbs and Montgomery. This is a textbook spot where the Lions strength lines up with a Cowboys weakness.
The Pick: Lions -3 (110) DK
AHHHHHHH-AHHHHHHHH-AHH UNDA!
Bengals at Giants Total 47.5
Despite the Bengals terrible record, Joe Burrow has been on fire. The problem is the defense. And it’s a HUGE problem. You aren’t going to win many games when the defense is giving up almost 30 points a game.
Sitting at 1-4 and off an OT loss to the Ravens, this is a come to Jesus moment. The Bengals had a defensive players only meeting following the loss. They know it’s their fault and Danny Dimes is the perfect opponent to get right against.
We also like the offense to slow things down with longer, methodical drives to compensate for a defense that can’t stop anyone.
ONE TIME FOR SOME THUNDER!
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 7
FRIDAY NIGHT BONUS PLAYS:
Utah at Arizona St -5.5 Total 46.5
Friday night bonus plays have had their ups and downs, but they’re here to stay. We don’t have much College Football left so we’ll cherish every moment.
Head coach Kyle Whittingham has been in his current position for almost 20 years. He’s arguably one of the most respected in the nation, and tonight he’s going against a 34 year old Kenny Dillingham running Arizona State. Last season Utah beat the absolute shit out of the Sun Devils 55-3. You might think this is a good revenge spot for a fun Arizona St team that’s 4-1, but there is one massive problem - Utah lost last week. You know who doesn’t lose back-to-back games very often? Kyle Whittingham. Not only did Utah lose, but they lost at home. Must’ve been a brutal week of practice for the mormons.
Cam Rising or not, we don’t give a bakers fuck. We like Utah to shut down Cam Scattebo and silence this AZ State crowd from start to finish.
The Pick: Utah -5.5 (-110) - BetMGM
Wisconsin at Rutgers -2.5 Total 43.5
Steak says I bet Wisconsin too much. He’s probably right. But you know what? I nailed them last week against Purdue. So he can kiss my ass.
Now that did have a little to do with Purdue being terrible, but I also felt like Wisconsins offense was just so ready to erupt, even with a backup QB. To be honest - I don’t think this kid is all that bad. I was absolutely ripping my hair out when he threw 2 first half interceptions though. But then I posted a halftime pep talk video, and he responded well.
Rutgers has had a nice season sitting at 4-1, especially considering they had a 5.5 win total. But this has been a brutal four week stretch. They’ve played at Va Tech, home to Washington, then at Nebraska last week. Credit to the Scarlett Knights, they played their assess off in Lincoln, and as Nebraska bettors we feel very fortunate to have gotten the -6.5 cover (W CLV).
I’m not going to take credit for Wisconsin scoring 52 points, but I’m not not going to take credit. What I will do is lean into the Badger offense finally figuring something out, and continuing with the success they found last week.
The Pick: Wisconsin +2.5 (-105) - FD
Washington at Iowa -2.5 Total 41
The Huskies sort of fall into a letdown spot here after beating Michigan, but this bet is actually more about the scheduling spot. There MIGHT be a good opportunity to fade these new Big 10 teams as they get familiar with their new opponents and scenery. As we just saw with USC last weekend - they were coming from at Michigan, then home vs Wisconsin, back on the road to a very unfamiliar place in Minnesota. The Trojans lost outright as 8.5 point favorites.
I can’t tell if Iowa is the square play here. Not that I really care, but I always do like to wonder if we’re walking into a big ole duping. But who really wants to fade Washington right now? They’re 2-1 in their last 3 games, and even in the loss to Rutgers they outplayed them. Not to mention putting up over 400 yards of offense against Michigan. I mean this team is rolling, and Iowa is coming off of a 7 point performance at Ohio St.
No offense to Piscataway, New Jersey…but this Iowa atmosphere is not something we think Washington is ready for, especially after being fat and happy all week.
The Pick: Iowa -2.5 (-115) - FD
Texas vs Oklahoma +14.5
This game means something to us…
The Pick: Oklahoma +14.5 (-110)
Stanford at Notre Dame -23 Total 45.5
The Irish offense is finally coming to life, but this is the home game where it really explodes. After scoring 66 points in Purdue, ND followed it up with a gritty 31-24 win against Louisville. The offense did enough to get the job done, but the passing game is still really questionable. Now they have Stanford coming in who I think is a potentially dead team. The Cardinals are playing their third road game in four weeks - including a trip to the East Coast where they stayed for two weeks. Just a team that’s all over the place and knows they’re bad. Meanwhile Notre Dame is coming off a BYE week. Rested and ready to rage. Now I don’t like betting on teams off a BYE often, but I do in this case. Mostly because ND still needs some style points. They don’t have any sexy opponents on their schedule till USC in Week 12. I say the lads make it nasty.
The Pick: Notre Dame TT O 34.5 (-115)
Ohio State at Oregon +3.5 Total 53.5
Steak and I have gone back and forth on this one quite a bit. He likes the Ducks, but I can’t say I’m on board. If you watched our season preview, you might remember that Steak is all in on Oregon - over wins, to win the natty and Dillon Gabriel Heisman. If he’s making those bets, then of course he thinks they win (or at least cover) this game, and he’s doubling down.
I personally think jumping around from school to school isn’t going to work out as well as everyone thought for Dillon, therefore I’m out on the Ducks. However…I like Dan Lanning, and I can’t stand Ryan Day. I want to quack so bad, yet I can’t help but think Oregon catching points at home seems like a bit of a trap. We’ve seen it with Michigan vs Texas and we saw it with UF vs Miami and Texas A&M.
Nevertheless, we’ve found some common ground in that we like these offenses to show up and show out. Oregon has not only failed to cover spreads, but they’re 3-2 to the under this year. I think they’re getting a little too cute playing with their food, but it all leads up to this game when they throw the kitchen sink at the Buckeyes. On the flip side, I’m not really a huge Will Howard guy, but do think they have potential to bust open a few big plays which in turn will have the Ducks playing catch up.
The Pick: Over 53.5 (-110)
Minnesota at UCLA +4 Total 41
UCLA stinks, but they’re starting to cover spreads. 3-0 ATS in their last 3. Are they starting to figure something out? Probably not. But we can’t resist fading Minnesota after that win against USC, and in unfamiliar (former) Pac-12 territory.
The Pick: UCLA +4 (-110)
RECAP:
NFL
Jags +1.5 (-110) - DK - Degen’s Best Bet
Eagles -9.5 (-110) FD - Greg’s Best Bet
Titans -2.5 (-120) FD - Steak’s Best Bet
Lions -3 (110) DK
Bengals Giants UNDER 47.5 (-110) FD
CFB
Utah -5.5 (-110)
Wisconsin +2.5 (-105)
Iowa -2.5 (-115)
Oklahoma +14.5 (-110)
Notre Dame TT O 34.5 (-115)
Ohio St/Oregon OVER 53.5 (-110)
UCLA +4 (-110)