My how the pain of losing early has faded. Back to back 7-2 weeks in the NFL! Last week was another bloodbath for the public, and the Jaguars ended damn near every Survivor Pool. We are getting dangerously close to Thanksgiving. All is right in the world. Can’t say we love the board this week, but we’re warming up to it. After the last two weeks of chaos there should be a little bit of a correction, and we are sure that one or two of the public’s picks will cash. We tried to sprinkle in a few favorites because we have more small dogs than Puppy Bowl IX and more +3’s than Steph Curry. This is going to be a beautiful week of football. Might pour ourselves a bloody mary today just to have it ready for Sunday Morning.
Also - we need address Brandon’s last two best bets of the Vikings +2 vs the Cowboys with no Dak, and Niners +1 vs the Cardinals with no Kyler. These write ups are done on Wednesday night. If news hits after that the opposing teams starting QB is OUT, then it becomes a NO BET. Of course, this will still count towards our YTD record, but it’s important to emphasize that as contrarian bettors we sell good news, and buy bad news. Every public bettor in the world immediately faded Cooper Rush and Colt McCoy. As we always say, it’s not that easy. Please adjust your bets accordingly should a teams star player (one that impacts the spread) be out between the time you read this and the game starts.
NFL WEEK 9
Current Record: 45-32-1 YTD
A final attempt to right their wrongs - Rams @ 49ers +3.5 Total 49
Hear us out. We have admittedly liked the 49ers way too much this year, and if this one doesn’t hit we’ll put ourselves in timeout. There has been zero sign of life in San Francisco since they lost the Super Bowl. Shotty defense, poor QB play and injuries seem to be playing on a loop in the Bay Area. But this game is it. Fresh off a beat down from Colt McCoy last week, the 49ers have fallen to 3-5 and more importantly 0-3 in their division. Line in the sand game. It’s not crazy to say that head coach Kyle Shanahan might be on the chopping block if this season spirals like last year. The Rams suffered a minor setback last week against Tennessee. The skies have been a bit too Sunny in LA this year for Stafford and the Rams. We think a correction is looming. At the end of the day, SF is 0-8 in their last 8 games at home. This doesn’t get any uglier, but we’re ready to go down swinging on ‘em. Monday Night, home dog, divisional game - forget everything else.
The Pick: 49ers +3.5 (Greg’s Best Bet)
An immaculate run comes to a bitter end - Saints @Titans -3 Total 44.5
This is the beauty of betting like a degenerate. Your average gambler is probably looking at this game and the first question that comes to mind is “who’s starting at QB for New Orleans?”. Tell your buddy it doesn’t matter. You think Vegas puts out this line if it did? Come on. The Titans are quite possibly the hottest team in the NFL. They’re on a 5 game winning streak and covered in every single one. Their last four wins have been over Buffalo, KC, Indy and the Rams. If that’s not a gauntlet we don’t know what is. And now you’re telling us the Titans are only a field goal favorite at home against a team who just lost to the Falcons? A team who is still undecided at who to start at QB? Yea, okay. This isn’t a reverse line, but the Titans are taking 73% of the bets and the line isn’t moving. Love it. You gotta give Sean Payton credit – the man knows how to bounce back after a loss. Regular season Jesus. The Saints are 5-0 in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. Jameis is on crutches and Kamara is questionable with a mild knee sprain, but it doesn’t matter. Saints go marching.
The Pick: Saints +3 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
A tough swing - Browns @ Patriots -2 Total 45
Odell is gone and Baker is back! The Brownies absolutely dominated the Bengals last weekend, as predicted. (Brava, Degen. Brava!) If you follow our twitter (which you should), we woke up on Sunday morning and fell in LOVE with Cleveland. So much so that we even bet them to score the most points on Sunday 30/1, which they did, despite only having the ball for 23 minutes.
Okay enough horn tooting. The concern bettors might have here is with Chubb testing positive for Covid. He is vaccinated, so he just needs a positive test Saturday to start. But if you’re a Degen reader then you know this means absolutely nothing. Why? Because we buy bad news! If Chubb is out, we love the Browns even more (but wait for the line movement). Yes yes yes, the Pats are a BITCH to bet against, especially at home. And this is as tight of line as you’re gonna see on Sunday. It does not matter. Cleveland is a feisty road dog, having gone 5-1 in their last ATS in this spot. WOOF!
The Pick: Browns +2
Pending Rodgers - Seahawks @ Packers +3.5 Total 49.5
We will keep this short and sweet, because Aaron Rodgers status is uncertain. Russell Wilson is back this week, but we don’t know if the NFL is going to suspend Arod and he still needs a positive test Saturday to suit up Sunday. If he’s out, then we do NOT like this game. However, if he’s playing, then we are all over the Seahawks here. Also – the Seahawks are currently 90/1 to win the Super Bowl and 40/1 to win the NFC. Might be worth some pizza money, because if they can sneak into the playoffs, they can make a serious run.
The Pick: Seahawks +3.5 (If Aaron Rodgers plays///if Rodgers is out, this is a NO BET)
Don’t fall for America’s new sweetheart - Lions @ Steelers -9 Total 42.5
Oh that familiar feeling. You know what we’re talking about - when the world wants to get behind the NFL’s most lovable losers. All signs somehow point to Detroit here. You’ve got the best rest advantage possible with the Lions coming off a BYE and the Steelers just playing MNF. On top of that, the Steelers barely snuck out a win against the lowly Bears. If a few terrible calls don’t go their way they easily lose that game. Sure the Lions stink, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that this Steelers team led by 39 year old vegetarian Big Ben should not be a 9 point favorite against anyone. Underdogs of 7 points or more were 27-0 to start the year until the Bengals lost to the Jets two weeks ago. Some may thing the pendulum will swing and start to get cute with these big dogs on the ML. This ain’t it chief.
The Pick: Steelers -9
Let the ponies out - Jags @ Colts -10 Total 47.5
In a normal world we would probably look away on this one. The Jags are coming off their biggest win since upsetting the Steelers in the 2017 Divisional Round, and somehow they did it while only scoring 9 points. Is Josh Allen the real Josh Allen?? Honestly the reason we are leaning Colts here is their current standing. The AFC Playoff picture is going to be incredibly tight, and after starting 1-4 they can’t afford a single slip-up against an inferior opponent. Their current record of 4-5 has em on the outside looking in with some very big opponents left (@Buffalo next week). Every damn win is just too important for Indy. Sure, 10 points is a lot and the backdoor is wide open, especially if you remember the Jets near spread spoiler last Thursday night. We think the Colts hold strong for all four quarters here. Colts are on ATS cruise control.
The Pick: Colts -10
Gluttons for punishment - Vikings @ Chargers -3 Total 53
Ohhh Vikings, Vikings, Vikings. Why do we fall for you so often? Stop setting fishy lines on these guys, Vegas! It is truly a thing of beauty how week-in, week-out the Vikings score exactly enough points to lose in heartbreaking fashion. It’s like Mike Zimmer thinks he’ll get in trouble if he scores one point too many. A big topic to come in this one is the status of Dalvin Cook, so hold on from punching-in (pun intended) this one because you are likely to get a little boost by Sunday. Who knows how the story will unfold, but the public smells blood in the water and thinks they are stealing money if Dalvin inevietably can’t play. Remember: fade the narrative. Skol!
The Pick: Vikings +3
The Bookies Pick
Can’t say we love this one, but we also don’t hate it. Either way, we aren’t foolish enough to fade our bookie when he’s putting a streak together. It’s our Bookies pick of the week!
The Pick: Eagles +4 (buy .5)
AHHHHHHAHHHHAHH UNDA!!! Eagles @ Broncos 45.5
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 11
Current Record: 30-26 YTD
(5-4) UNC @ (7-2) #21 Pitt -6.5
A little Thursday night delight! Say it with me: TOO! MANY! POINTS! That’s right, this is A LOT of respect for Pitt. When UNC made the trip to South Bend, Notre Dame was only -3.5. UNC lost by 10, but last week upset top ranked Wake. So now Pitt is getting 3 more points than ND would after that impressive win against Wake? This tells us Pitt rolls.
The Pick: Pitt -6 (buy .5)
(9-0) #8 Oklahoma @ (7-2) #13 Baylor +5.5
We love Baylor so much we might marry them. Just kidding, our wives read this. We’ve got Oklahoma coming off a bye, their new QB getting mega love and now 5th in Heisman ranks, against Baylor who just lost to an unranked TCU. Talk about recency bias! Even better, this is a reverse line. 59% of the bets are on the Sooners, but this line opened Boomer -6 and is now down to -5.5.
The Pick: Baylor +5.5
(8-1) #6 Michigan @ (6-3) #23 Penn State +2.5
Umm…excuse me? The oddsmakers have Penn State as a favorite against Michigan?! The same Penn State team that lost outright at home to Illinois as a 14 point favorite??? Nobody wants the Nittany Lions here, and we can’t blame them. Another mans trash is another mans treasure, or something like that. Looks like EVERYONE is on Michigan, so we will be with the books on this one.
The Pick: Penn State -1
(5-4) Miami @ (3-6) FSU +2.5
College Football in the state of Florida is DEAD. All time low, but there has been a glimmer of hope with the resurgence of Miami now that they’ve got TVD at QB. But don’t sleep on these Seminoles! They’ve been feisty. Although they didn’t cover last weekend against NC St, they hung tough for most of the game. Plenty of chances, and we expect them to hang here too. The Canes have proven to be a much better team having beaten NC St and spoiling once top ranked Pitt’s season. We call this the Danny Devito line because it was way too short.
The Pick: FSU +3 (buy .5)
(6-3) #19 Purdue @ (8-1) #4 Ohio State -20
The Boiler Makers have been playing the role of David lately after slaying a few Goliaths. Taking down Iowa on the road and then unbeaten Michigan State. So now Vegas is going to let you have them with 20 points? Ha! Nice try Vegas. Purdue is taking 66% of the bets, which is no shocker, but the line isn’t moving. This is game has 49-20 Buckeyes written all over it.
The Pick: Ohio State -20