Welcome to The Degenerate - Each week we’ll give you a few picks, insights, trends, and what to watch for on Sunday. Full disclosure - neither of us claim to be experts. We’re just two guys who’ve spent many years betting like chumps, and now we are passionate about helping others to avoid being one.
It’s never felt so good to break even. That was a brutal two week stretch we endured. This week feels like redemption. These lines are speaking to us and they’re saying “over here…over here…I’m a winner!”. Just when your bookie thought you were down, rise up and kick him/her right in the dick/vag #2020.
Another ugly day in Cleveland - Eagles @ Browns -3
This line opened at 3.5 and is quickly down to 3. You’re probably writing off the Eagles, as you should, because they’ve look beyond dysfunctional. But remember – weird shit happens. Apparently there’s going to be 20 mph winds for the third straight Browns home game. Cleveland sounds like a lovely place this time of year. You’d think this favors Chubb and that running game…but not so fast! I don’t even know how it happens, but the birds find a way to cover if not win outright. Buy the hook here and get it at 3.5.
The Pick – Eagles +3.5
A fork in the road - Steelers @ Jags +10
We heavily disagree on this one. Brandon’s logic - a bit of a public play, but who cares?The Steelers already got the road hiccups out of their system in Dallas. Luton has covered in both of his starts, but that flames out against the black and yellow. Steelers roll here. Greg’s logic - There are three things that don’t bode well for the Steelers in this spot. They are terrible on the road as double digit favorites, in his career Ben is a shocking 5-5 vs the Jags, and most importantly Pittsburgh has a massive game on Thanksgiving Day vs the Ravens. Steelers win an ugly one on a last second field goal.
The Pick – Brandon - Steelers -10; Greg - Jags + 10
Call Lamar - Titans @ Ravens -6.5
We called the Titans frauds a few weeks ago when we lost the heart breaker backing Houston +3.5 and they couldn’t win the game with a 2PT conversion. Seems like we were just a tad early, as they’ve lost 3 of 4 since, with the only W being against the shitty Bears. We expect the public to get cute here and either tease the Titans to a comfortable 14.5, or get greedy and take em ML. Baltimore will show up and carve em up like an early Thanksgiving turkey.
The Pick – Ravens -6.5
Skol stutters - Cowboys @ Vikings -7.5
It doesn’t matter who’s playing QB for Dallas (probably Dalton) – this is SUCH a typical spot where Kirk stumbles. The Vikings were awful, now they’re…good? Three straight wins against divisional opponents. Job well done after a 1-5 start, and credit to Mike Zimmer for not letting the team completely pack it in. Impossible to tell if Minny is the real deal or not, but what we do know is the Cowboys are fucking terrible, and that’s why we are backing them here.
The Pick – Cowboys +7.5
Minus two and a half?!?! - Packers @ Colts -2.5
Here’s the fishiest line of the weekend. And for that reason, this is an auto pick. If it doesn’t make sense then we invest! Sounds like a motto Saul Goodman would come up with. No real reason to over-analyze this one. The wrong team is favored and that’s all you need to know in order to back Indy. Something strange is brewing with Vegas and their outlook on the Colts. This is the third week in a row (Ravens and Titans) where they are unexpected slight favorites. Might be a good time to jump on their bandwagon with a modest ticket to win the AFC at +900.
The Pick – Colts -2 (buy .5 a point – don’t’ get burned like last weeks Cardinals/Bills game)
Player Props - Short Joe Burrow, gonna be a tough day for Cincy in Washington. Great pass rush vs. a weak o-line.
DFS Value play - Jaboo returns with a new uniform and a fresh set of eyes. Look for a big day, even if it includes a touchdown pass to the Falcons.
Quick Hitters:
Bengals @ Football Team -1.5 - Alex Smith builds on the momentum of a comeback that fell just short, and the Team gets enough pressure on Burrow to pull out the W.
Falcons @ Saints - Saints ML
AHHHHHHHAAHHAHHHHH UNDA - Chiefs Raiders U57
Season: 27-24-1