Last week was tough, but we still came out on top. 5-4 in the NFL after a brutal 1pm start, and 4-1 in CFB. Let’s keep it rolling.
There are two major trends we have our eye in the NFL. The first: underdogs are covering at an absurd 59% this year. We do love some dogs this week, but admittedly are forcing in a few favorites as we don’t expect this number to hold. The second: Teams off a BYE Week are 6-10 ATS. Sure, you could chalk this up to small sample size. BUT - you could look a little deeper and note that due to the new 17 game season, the NFL changed the amount of meetings and practices a team can have over their BYE week. Now, of course Vegas knows this and factors it into their spreads, but we don’ t think the public is hip to this trend yet, and is giving a team of a BYE the usual respect with the logic of “an extra week to prepare”. In short, you can be damn sure we got our eye on the four teams coming off a bye. (Bengals, Texans, Giants, Bears)
Week 11 hear us ROAR!
NFL WEEK 11
Current Record: 50-36-1 YTD
I see your true colors, that’s why I love you - Bengals @ Raiders +1 Total 49.5
Guess what? I absolutely LOVE a team everyone just saw get embarrassed on Sunday Night! Surprised yet? Now, maybe the Chiefs are back and the Raiders are trash. Or… maybe the Raiders were the only team that gave the Chiefs a ton of trouble last year (sans Bucs in Super Bowl) and we think Andy Reid did more than enough homework on how to shut down Derek Carr in the off-season. The Raiders have had a rough few weeks with the off-field story-lines, and just when the public thinks they’ll fall apart from ‘em is when it’s time to get in line for a Raiders ticket. The Bengals have not looked great as of late. They stumbled into their BYE week losing to the Jets, then got beat down by the Browns. But see our intro - Does Head Coach Zac Taylor really inspire you as the type of guy who can fix his teams woes in a week off? True colors come shining through for Cincy. Raiders early, Raider often.
The Pick: Raiders +1 (Greg’s Best Bet)
A taste of revenge - WFT @ Panthers -3.5 Total 43
(CHOOOO CHOOOO) Hear that? It’s the Cam Newton hype train, and apparently 67% of the bettors are jumping on it. The Panthers just molly whopped the Cardinals. Now granted it was with Colt McCoy, but Carolina was down a man too – no Sam Darnold! Ha, kidding. That’s addition by subtraction. Cam Newton is back in a Panthers uniform and already set the tone. The team played some inspired football, and Cam accounted for 2 touchdowns. After a successful tune up, he’s ready for his first start of the year. Oh, and CMC is back to looking like the unicorn we know he is. So what could go wrong?! How about a little…REVENGE! The Ron Rivera Revenge game (say that 3 times fast). Washington has been a huge pile of stink this year. All off-season we heard about their defense, and yet they are ranked in the bottom of the league statistically. But, WFT somehow managed to hand Tom Brady his worst loss ever off a BYE. Has the Football Team turned a corner? Doubtful, but this is a great spot for them. Both teams riding high, but we think WFT will be a little bit higher playing for their coach as the underdog here. Not to mention, Carolina is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite. Śørrÿ Čäm!
The Pick: WFT +4 (buy .5)
Fresh fruit for rotting vegetables - Lions @ Browns -11.5 Total 43.5
This is about as unexciting as it gets in terms of a QB shake-up. Is Jared Goff injured? Will we see backup Tim Boyle under center on Sunday for the Lions? Who Cares?!?!? Typically we take the angle of tail bad news/fade good news. But at this point, who knows which of the two would count as. Our real lean in this one is that the Browns just had one of their worst performances in recent memory, which for the Browns is saying a whole lot, and the Lions are coming of their first non-loss… so that’s something. 67% are on America’s Lions again, and we just don’t see ‘em covering back to back big spreads on the road as trendy dogs. This one is supposed to be windy - look for the Browns run game to reign supreme and Baker to nickle and dime down the field.
The Pick: Browns -11.5
Monday Night Massacre - Giants @ Buccaneers -10.5 Total 49.5
Here’s a fun one - the Giants (2-1) have a better record over their last three games than the Bucs (1-2). Not sure what to do with that, but it is interesting given the double digit spread in Tampa. Even more interesting is that Brady is 0-11 in his last 11 starts at 8pm EST (per @BSSportsbook). Dogs have been cleaning up this year in prime time spots going 19-6 ATS, and we are more than ready to fade this trend. You probably haven’t seen too much of it yet, but you can guarantee the “New York Giants own Brady” crowd is going to start chirping leading up to this Monday Night Showdown. It’s not by much (56%) but anytime you see Danny Dimes as a trendy dog, you better run the other direction. Fire the Cannons and go to bed early on Monday Night. Brady and the Bucs right the ship.
The Pick: Bucs -10 (buy .5)
Baltimore bounce back - Ravens @ Bears +5 Total 45
One final fade of a team coming off a BYE week spot. Any other coach and we would be champing at the bit (yes its champing not chomping - google it, wild shit) to back a promising rookie QB coming off an extra week of learning the playbook and working with the offense. But in the million things Matt Nagy could focus on in the off week to get ready for the Ravens, the only thing you can be sure of is that none of them are going to work. Some people will pause to take Ravens, given their abysmal showing against the Dolphins last Thursday. Don’t be like some people. Ravens offense runs wild.
The Pick: Ravens -5
You think we like this?!? - Packers @ Vikings +2.5 Total 49
Ugh. It brings us no joy to have to do this again. Two of our least favorite things – fading Aaron Rodgers and betting on the Vikings. Why do we do this to ourselves? No clue. It’s kind of like mowing the lawn on a hot summer day in July. You know it’s going to suck, but once it’s over, you’ll feel good you did it. I’m not going to sit here and tell you the Vikings are a good team, but they’re not a bad team. Trivia: who’s the only team in the NFL to have at least a 7 point lead in every game? Answer: Vikings! The Purple had a nice win in LA, but they’ve gotta get the Cooper Rush taste out of the home crowds mouth. The Packers are 9-1 ATS, yet for some reason are not getting much respect from Vegas here. We’ve got ourselves a classic reverse line to top it off. The line opened Pack -2.5. They’re getting 64% of the bets, but the line is now down to -2. Someone knows that purple is coming to SKOL on Sunday!
The Pick: Vikings +2
Close your eyes and pray - Texans @ Titans -10 Total 44.5
Can we all agree that this line is a little insane? Vegas used to give the home team ~3 points, but now it’s more around 1.5-2 points. So they’re saying the Titans are -8 against the Texans on a neutral field. Let me repeat that. The odds-makers are saying the Titans, who have just beaten 5 playoff teams in a row and are arguably the hottest team in the league, are only EIGHT points better than the Texans, who are dog shit, on a neutral field. Pffff! As mentioned, we are looking to fade teams off a BYE, and that would mean the Texans. But not here, not now, not with this line. It’s way too low. The Texans are bad, man. Like…really bad. I can’t find one trend to support betting the Texans here, so you’re just going to have to suck it up and trust us. If you choose to sit this one out, that’s okay too. But do not be that guy or girl who bets the Titans here. It’s also worth mentioning that through the first 2 weeks of the season, Tyrod Taylor did not look that bad. Yes, he returned two weeks ago against the Dolphins and was atrocious. But what did the Seahawks Packers game show us? Russell Wilson returned from injury and he looked just as bad if not worse. Tyrod needed a tune up, and he got one. Now…we Tuh-ride!
The Pick: Texans +10
The Bookies Pick
Our Bookie beat us to the punch here! This was a contender for one of our best bets. We absolutely love it baby. Why? Because it’s Joe Flacco’s day to have a day. It’s our Bookies pick of the week!
The Pick: Jets +3.5 (we like the over too!)
AHHHHHHAHHHHAHH UNDA!!! Cowboys vs Chiefs UNDER 56.5
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 12
Current Record: 34-27 YTD
(6-4) Iowa State @ (9-1) #13 Oklahoma -4
I know I know, Oklahoma just lost to Baylor (nailed that one), but Iowa St has been a mess this year, and just lost to Texas Tech on a 63 yard field goal. Don’t you think the obvious play is for the Sooners to bounce back? Because we do. If Vegas agreed, this line would be higher. 4 points ain’t enough at home. We smell more pain for the Sooners.
The Pick: Iowa St +4
(9-1) #10 Wake Forest @ (7-3) Clemson -4
I’ll be honest, we do not enjoy fading Wake Forest. Always fun to pull for the team that came out of nowhere. But, it must be done. Clemson has pretty much solidified the fact that they stink this year. The offense couldn’t score touchdowns and Dabo was settling for field goals against fucking UConn at home. Yet, they are 4 point favorites against a top 10 team? The books are begging you to take the “better” team with the points.
The Pick: Clemson -4
5-5) Rutgers @ (6-4) #23 Penn State -17
Rutgers is not good, but they do deserve a tiny bit of props for bouncing back after that ass whooping at home to Wisconsin. The Scarlett Knights went into Indiana and steamrolled them. I’m just not so sure that Penn St has done anything to deserve being a 17 point favorite. The last time they were double digit favorites, they lost to Illinois straight up in the infamous 9OT game. We’ll trust Vegas on this one.
The Pick: Penn St -17
(8-2) #24 SMU @ (10-0) #5 Cincinnati -11.5
All the talk lately is about undefeated Cincinnati not beating teams by enough to secure a top 4 spot. They’re good, but not impressive. 10-0 is cute, but 5-5 ATS doesn’t make it move, if ya know what I’m saying. SMU ain’t no slouch, and the books are respecting Cincy here. This will be the one.
The Pick: Cincinnati -11.5
(8-2) #10 Baylor @ (7-3) Kansas State +1
Baylor, ya did us good last week, but we must go against you here. We love fading teams after a big win. Now don’t get it twisted - K St has been ROLLING lately having won 4 in a row and deserves some respect, but this line is a bit too short.
The Pick: Kansas St +1
(3-7) Nebraska @ (7-3) #15 Wisconsin -9.5
Don’t you think Nebraska is ready to pack it in? We do…or, at least we thought we did, until we saw this spread. Wisconsin has been embarrassing people. They are making up for the slow start that we know all too well having backed them multiple times (and losing). This line opened -10 and Wisconsin is taking 73% of the bets, yet it ticked down to -9.5. Follow the sharp money.
The Pick: Nebraska +9.5
(9-1) #3 Oregon @ (7-3) #23 Utah -3
When a top 5 ranked team is getting points against an inferior opponent, you know it’s for good reason. Don’t even think about quacking here!
The Pick: Utah ML