Hope you enjoyed our Thanksgiving Special! Absolutely hated the board, yet still managed the clean sweep (if you listened to Brandon and took the Bills). We tried our hand at player props and went 1-2. David Montgomery decided not to run hard, and Carr couldn’t find the end zone after the first drive. Fun, but not our strong suit.
IMPORTANT: Moving forward, any game that has a starting QB listed as OUT before game time becomes a NO BET. This applies to the opposing teams QB as well. A lot can change between the time we write this on Wednesday night and kickoff on Sunday morning. Last week we had the Ravens -5, assuming LJ was playing. When he was listed as out, the line dropped to -1.5, and granted they still covered, this is a no bet and not in our updated record.
Sadly, this is the final week of College Football. We had a slow start but strong finish. Looking forward to the Bowl Season Special, where we typically do very well. Alright enough small talk - let’s get into it!
NFL WEEK 13
Current Record: 57-39-1 YTD
Addition by subtraction - Eagles @ Giants +3.5 Total 45.5
Ding dong the clapper is dead! The Giants have their biggest victory since beating Brady in the Super Bowl – Jason Garrett has officially been fired as their offensive coordinator. Pop the champagne! Look, he seems like a nice guy, but how the hell he even got hired is beyond me. Here are some not so fun stats to put into perspective just how bad he was at his job:
Daniel Jones only threw 20 TD passes in 24 games under Garrett. He had 24 TD passes in 12 games as a rookie under Pat Shurmur.
The Giants offense ranked 31st in 2020 and 25th currently.
The Giants offense never scored over 30 points under Garrett. Zero times in 26 games.
Garrett’s offense had 42 total TD’s in 26 games. Aaron Rodgers alone threw 48 TD passes in 16 games in 2020.
Had enough? Okay so Garrett’s gone, who’s next? Get ready to laugh…it’s Freddie Kitchens! Truly amazing the Giants hired these two bozo’s. One fired by the Cowboys, the other fired by the Browns. But, there is some hope. Freddie was crap as a coach, but not terrible has an OC. In 2018, he was promoted to the Browns OC after Hue Jackson was fired, and the Browns finished 5-3. Baker also came second in rookie of the year voting. We love betting on teams when they fire their coach, that’s a Degen system play through and through. Now we’ve got lopsided action as well with the public DROOLING over the red hot Eagles who’ve won 3 of their last 4. We like Freddie to let Danny Dimes cook in his Kitchen! (No more Dad jokes, starting now)
The Pick: Giants +3.5 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
Buy low on the Russ Bus - Seahawks @ WFT - 1 Total 46.5
Russell’s days in Seattle might be numbered. Pete Carroll needs to retire. Seattle’s on the verge of implosion. Pair that with WFT on two game win streak following their BYE week. Everyone is looking at this as free money Monday Night, and who can blame ‘em? Seattle has a whopping 13 points in their last two games! To say this team is in shambles would be a compliment. But take a deep breath and really look at this one. The hook is baited and Vegas is begging you to take Washington at home as a small favorite. But in all actuality, it’s screaming at you as a correction in the market. Seattle +1?? What idiot would possibly take Seattle after watching them the last few weeks? These idiots! Feel free to get greedy on Russ props. He may be down, but he’s not out.
The Pick: Seahawks +1 (Greg’s Best Bet)
Don’t get cute - Bucs @ Colts +3 Total 53
Initial hunch to this line was that everyone would be quick to jump on the Colts as a home dog…and we were right. Indy is getting 55% of the bets, yet this line went from +2.5 to +3. Has any player had a better single game performance this season than Jonathan Taylor last weekend in Buffalo? JT scored 5 touchdowns and ran all over the Bills D. That won’t fly with Tampa. Their front 7 is nasty, with quite possibly the best line-backing core in the NFL. Todd Bowles knows how to shutdown stud RB’s, and he’s going to force Wentz to beat them. Can he? Survey says: No. Wentz is having a sneaky good year, but deep down he can still be a complete moron under pressure and when it matters. The Bucs are coming off a blowout win on Monday night, so it is a short week, but that doesn’t matter. We’ll always take Tom Terrific in a bit of a contrarian spot.
The Pick: Bucs ML
An inconvenient truth - Rams @ Packers +1 Total 47
Hello darkness my old friend. Here we are again fading Aaron Rodgers. And now it’s after a loss, ugh! Stick to the game-plan. This is the biggest reverse line on the board. The Packers opened up as a short favorite, and somehow while getting 58% of the bets, they’re now getting points. Rodgers as a home dog in a year the Packers are 9-2 ATS? What bettor wouldn’t want that! Easy money, right? WRONG! We don’t love that the Rams are coming off a BYE, but with a coach like McVay, we think they’ll be an exception to what we’ve said in previous weeks. Sharps are hammering the Rams and we are going along for the ride. Our only apprehension was Rodgers and his toe injury, but that doesn’t seem to be concerning the betting public. The Fade Rodgers show must go on.
The Pick: Rams -1
Chargers @ Broncos +2.5 Total 48
This line is more delicious than anything you had on Thanksgiving Day. 65% of the ticket are on the Chargers and the line is holding strong at 2.5. One thing you’ve got to love about Teddy is that everyone knows he’s great as an underdog, but no one believes it till the game is over. The Chargers have certainly been a strong team this year, but they are not without their flaws on both sides of the ball. The Broncos are all over the place, but we will never balk at the chance to gamble on high altitude. Buy the hook and sweat off that extra serving of pumpkin pie.
The Pick: Broncos +3 (buy 0.5 point)
An over correction up north - Titans @ Patriots -7 Total 43.5
This is a huge number for the red hot Patriots, wouldn't you say? Apparently the public has given up on the Titans after their loss last week against the Texans. This line opened at Pats -4.5 and has continued to tick in their favor. As of Thursday night it’s -7. Now look, we’ve been fading the Titans all season, but this spot is just way too obvious. Mac Jones has been phenomenal in his inevitable journey to Offensive Rookie of the Year, but every journey has its bumps in the road. No reason to get greedy, so take the points and expect a close game.
The Pick: Titans +7
Bookie Pick of the Week
Say it with me: J! E! T! S! Gross! Gross! Gross! Let’s ride with the Bookie.
The Pick: Jets +3 (buy .5)
AHHHHHHAHHHHAHH UNDA!!! Steelers @ Bengals Total 44.5
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 13
Current Record: 39-30 YTD
(9-2) #16 Iowa @ (3-8) Nebraska -1
This line is big ole stinky fish! Nebraska opened up as a 3.5 point favorite, but Adrian Martinez is out. Can you believe that? This fucking guy has been the starting QB at Nebraska since Nam, and he’s going to be out for Senior Day?! Why god, why?! Nevertheless, this sort of makes us like Nebraska even more. A ranked Iowa team against a backup QB should be the favorite, and they’re not. Don’t outsmart Vegas.
The Pick: Nebraska -1
(5-6) FSU @ (5-6) UF -2.5
Maybe our favorite college bet of the year. The Gators just fired Dan Mullen after losing to LSU, Georgia, South Carolina and Missouri. They did beat Samford though! Albeit allowing 52 points at home. What a disaster in Gainesville. Meanwhile, you’ve got the Noles trending in the complete opposite direction. After an abysmal 0-4 start (including a lost to Jacksonville St), the Noles just won back to back games against Miami and Boston College. Why in the world would anyone like the Gators? And yes…that’s exactly why we do.
The Pick: Gators ML
(10-1) #24 Houston @ (1-10) UConn +32.5
This is the PRIME look ahead spot for Houston. They have one of the best offenses in the country averaging 38 points per game, and have won 10 straight. What’s on deck after running over UConn? A conference championship game against top ranked Cincinatti. This spread looks to be about a touchdown short. UConn has lost by 31-32 points to UCF, Clemson, Middle Tennessee and Army. None of which are anywhere near the level of talent Houston is. We think the Cougars keep the playbook tight and sleepwalk through this one.
The Pick: UConn +32.5
(10-1) #2 Ohio St @ (10-1) #5 Michigan +8
In our season preview write up, we gave Michigan as our pick to win the Big 10 +2500, and we are not wavering. The Buckeyes look like legit title contenders…but this is Michigan’s time to finally right the wrongs. Despite Michigan’s impressive season, Harbaugh is still 0-5 against their biggest rival. He doesn’t need this game – he absolutely has to have this game. Honestly, they should be undefeated after some sketchy officiating in East Lansing helped Sparty mount the comeback. You can bet Ohio State has some added motivation given the Wolverines pulled the Covid card to get last years match-up cancelled. This one should be fun.
The Pick: Michigan +8
(7-4) Boise State @ (10-1) #21 SDSU +2.5
Bae almost caught us slipping! At first glance we’ve got a ranked team getting points against an unranked team, which is typically an auto play for us. However, even the public can spot this trap. 58% of the bets are on Boise. Not so fast! It would appear this is the ole trap trap.
The Pick: SDSU +2.5
(8-3) Kentucky @ (6-5) Louisville -3
Louisville has been on one lately. After a tough loss against Clemson, they beat Syracuse and Duke by a combined score of 103-25. The offense is rolling, but the public doesn’t seem to care. Kentucky is getting 61% of the bets yet the line moved from -2.5 to -3. We think L’ville stays rolling.
The Pick: Louisville ML
(4-6) Cal @ (7-4) UCLA -6.5
The last bet of the regular season, and it’s a classic reverse line! Cal is much better than their 4-6 record indicates. Here are a few losses: TCU (by 2), Nevada (by 5), Washington (by 7 in OT) and Oregon (by 7). They’re the definition of scrappy. UCLA just curb stomped rival USC putting up a 60 burger. For their senior day, we see Cal as the prefect spoiler to Chip Kelly’s mediocre season.
The Pick: Cal +6.5