Welcome to The Degenerate - Each week we’ll give you a few picks, insights, trends, and what to watch for on Sunday. Full disclosure - neither of us claim to be experts. We’re just two guys who’ve spent many years betting like chumps, and now we are passionate about helping others to avoid being one.
Solid week. Nothing special but a winning week is a winning week. Got a bit too chalky with some of the big favorites, but we were able to tread water and come out on top. This is when the season really starts to pop - playoff picture is crystalizing, snow is falling, and God damnit the NFC East is back!! This weeks slate is promising with some fishy lines that stink to the high heavens. Be grateful you have us here to navigate this minefield.
Eat the cat poop - Packers @ Lions +7.5
Don’t know what we dislike doing more – betting against Aaron Rodgers, or betting on the Lions. Yet, here we are. Detroit came through for us last weekend, and we are going to ride the hot hand that is the Patricia-less led Lions. Love having the hook here at 7.5. Aaron Rodgers and Davonte Adams is the best one-two punch in the NFL at the moment, and the Lions don’t have a secondary. This feels like a loss before even punching it in, which is why we love it.
The Pick – Lions +7.5
Take the road less traveled - Texans @ Bears +1
Let’s face it, the Texans are better than their record indicates. On the other hand, the Bears are worse than their record indicates, which sounds odd to say about a team with a losing record, but it’s the truth. They are trash. Nagy should’ve been fired weeks ago, Mitch was a miss, Foles is a dud, the defense is fucking tired of this bullshit… but we digress. Deshaun Watson has played out of his mind despite having zero supporting cast to finish out the season. They left their heart out on the field last weekend against the Colts, and we expect a poor showing this weekend in Chicago. Despite being down, the Texans weren’t out until that painful goal line fumble. Houston comes out flat, and the Bears do just enough to secure the W.
The Pick – Bears +1
Let’s go public - Cardinals @ Giants +2
Arizona is the public bet that cashes this weekend. This line is low, and despite their winning streak, most would still favor Kyler Murray against Danny Dimes with a busted hammy. The Cards have looked rough these past few weeks, which is why you should love em. Kyler and the Cards fly high when he runs the ball, and look for them to return to that game plan now that he’s healed up a bit. Also, big fan of “stadium familiarity”. The Cards have already been to New Jersey and took care of business against the Jets (told you to take NYJ there, sorry). They know the area, have their favorite pizza slice, and a go-to coffee spot. The Cards win a low scoring one here 21-17.
The Pick – Cardinals -2
In Mullens we trust - Football Team @ Niners -3.5
What a win for the Football Team! How fun is Chase Young? How cool is Alex Smith? How bad ass is Ron Rivera!! What is not to love about this team?! Well, PLAYTIME IS OVER! Football Team celebrates a little too much after their biggest win in years, and the Niners are pissed after Josh Allen carved them up. Look for Shanahan to get creative and avoid their nasty defensive front. They saw virtually zero running game in Pittsburgh, so they’ll get smacked in the face with toss sweeps and inside traps as Mostert and Wilson have a fucking day. Then get killed with the dink an dunk. Niners should not be getting this many points, and that should get you excited.
The Pick – Niners -3.5
Big truss is back - Ravens @ Browns +2
Who doesn’t love taking a home dog that’s also the flavor of the month?! Baker and the Browns have been scorching hot since OBJ went down. We were on em last week to smack around the Titans, but we fade them here. This line doesn’t make sense to us. Lamar still has Rona brain, but the Ravens offense had a MUCH needed tune up game against the Cowboys. They’re playing with their hair on fire in Cleveland, and for that, we back them. Playoff spot is on the line. Even though Lamar looks figured out, they still have a stellar run game and a strong enough defense to cool the red hot Browns.
The Pick – Ravens -2
Player Props:
Deshaun passing yards Under - Back to reality after a scorching hot streak
Brady passing yards Over - Nothing better for the oldest player in the NFL than a week off
Niners RB’s over - Flip a coin, we’re going Mostert
Quick Hitters:
Vikings @ Bucs -6.5 – the Vikings just love to come as close to losing as possible, then eek out a win. Not happening in Tampa as Bruce gets the Bucs to right the ship. Fire the cannons!
Colts @ Raiders +3 – This line stinks after the Raiders just barely survived the Jets. Colts win a close one, so hop in the Carr and take those points! (buy it to +3.5)
AHHHHHHAHHHHAHH UNDA Team Niners U43.5
Overall: 48 - 37