It was a great week to be a Degenerate! 7-0 sweep on Sunday, but couldn’t keep the sheet clean as the Bills let us down on MNF. Stayed strong in CFB going 4-2. We switched gears from our typical contrarian selves to try and time the market, and it worked out. The dogs stopped barking and the favorites took over. Now we are back to our roots in Week 14 as we love some ugly/sharp spots. And yes, we’ll have a college football bowl special write up out next week.
Early December is when you really want to start taking inventory as to who is getting hot at the right time. It’s when you can start to see what teams have a real chance at running the table and winning the Super Bowl. No official picks from us at this time, but you can be damn sure we are watching.
IMPORTANT REMINDER: When a starting QB is out before kickoff, it becomes a NO BET. We noted this a few weeks ago but want to reiterate as we’ve been getting a big uptick in new subscribers. I know it’s annoying, but you can track this if you follow us on twitter:
NFL WEEK 14
Current Record: 68-44-1 YTD
Make it Nasty - Jaguars @ Titans +8.5 Total 43.5
Titans certainly have their own problems, but it’s not often you see a team competing for the #1 seed in their conference going up against a 2-10 team barely favored over a TD - and it’s in Tennessee?!? Keep in mind this is a two win team who is quite possibly headed for back to back seasons with the worst record in the NFL. Since their game in London, the Jaguars have barely averaged 10 points per game. This offense is reeling and the defense isn’t doing much better. The Urban Meyer experiment has failed terribly and everyone has forgotten about Trevor Lawrence. But the season isn’t over yet. Look for the Jags to pull one more surprise this year and hang with the Titans on Sunday. If you’re feeling frisky throw some pizza money at Jags ML. Why not?!
The pick: Jaguars +9 — Buy .5 (Greg’s best Bet)
Defrost the Buffalo wings - Bills @ Buccaneers -3.5 Total 52.5
Welcome to what is surprisingly one of the most contrarian bets of the weekend. The public has finally had enough of Buffalo, and are ready to stick a fork in em. The Bills had high hopes this year but find themselves 7-5 with some chatter of potentially missing the playoffs. They’ve beaten bad teams, and lost to all the good ones (except Jacksonville). This team is as soft as butter at a fancy steakhouse. Now they’re in one of the worst scheduling spots of the year. Short week after MNF against a divisional opponent in inclement weather, and now traveling to face the defending Super Bowl champs. Who in the world wants to back the D E A D Bills?! Your guys at The Degenerate, that’s who! Why? Because this line is WAY too short. The Bucs as a field goal favorite at home is Vegas saying these teams are even on a neutral field. Do you agree with that? Most likely not, and neither do most bettors. The Bucs are getting 82% of the money here, and trust me this ain’t how Vegas stays in business. Buffalo turns their season around by thawing out in a trip down to Florida.
The Pick: Bills +3.5 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
Friends in low places - Seahawks @ Texans +7.5 41.5 Total
Russell Wilson shook off some rust last week with a huge win over the 49ers and it would appear everyone thinks the problems in Seattle are fixed. 65% of the public is going Hawks, and who can blame ‘em? Last week their offense finally looked to get it together for the first time since Russ’s injury back in early October. We know they’re 4-8 with a snowballs chance at making the playoffs. Getting a touchdown might feel right, but to us it feels like Vegas has set up a beautiful trap and the Texans somehow find a way to keep this one tight. We take zero joy going into a weekend with the Jags and the Texans on the card, but remember we’re big “buy low” guys. Now, you’re probably saying to yourself “This Texans team has put on a MasterClass in underachieving, how the fuck do I buy low?” And rightfully so, but they just outdid themselves and found a new floor. As if a 31-0 loss at home vs the Colts wasn’t ugly enough, the Texans offense didn’t even get past midfield until there were under 2 minuntes left in the 3rd quarter! And now, Tyrod Taylor is likely out with a wrist injury? How, on any planet, are they within 10 points of any team other than Jacksonville/Detroit? Hell, Bama might be favored by 10! We don’t know, you don’t know, but Vegas does. This has survivor scare and teaser buster written all over it.
The Pick: Texans +7.5
The battle for the NFC East begins - Cowboys @ WFT +4.5 Total 48
Welcome to the big leagues Taylor Heinicke! Four straight wins and this team is back in the hunt. Following the Chase Young injury and the BYE week, WFT has done a complete 180. Now the divisional games are about to come in heavy. For some odd (and ungodly stupid) reason the NFC East has barely played any divisional games yet. They’re all stacked into the end of the year. Quick look at divisional games remaining:
Dallas 4 of last 5
Giants 3 of last 5
Eagles 4 of last 4
WFT 5 of last 5
Going to be intense down the stretch for the NFC Beast. With the Cowboys sitting on a two game lead for the division and 5 games remaining, this is a borderline elimination game for the red hot WFT who are coming off their 4th straight win. They’re getting a comfortable amount of points in a meaningful game, at home, and on a sizable winning streak. See where we’re going with this one yet? If WFT was winning this game, it would be within a field goal. The line opening at -5 tells us Vegas is tipping their hand to the Cowboys being in charge of this one. Buy the hook as insurance.
The Pick: Cowboys -4 (buy 0.5 pt)
The best offensive is a great defense - Raiders @ Chiefs -9.5 Total 48
Two months ago who in the world would believe you that come December the Chiefs defense would be their strong suit. What an unbelievable job by DC Steve Spagnuolo. After averaging 29 pts/game through the first 7 weeks, the Chiefs D has now allowed 11 pts/game in their last 5. Banana land. Everyone still has visions of the Raiders offense from Thanksgiving and the public is riding with ‘em to a tune of 71%. Copy paste from last week - if Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs aren’t getting public money, count your lucky starts and proceed with confidence.
The pick: Chiefs - 9.5
Lightning doesn’t strike twice - Lions @ Broncos -8 Total 42
Let’s give a big round of applause to everyone who had the Lions last weekend, especially Lions money line. I know a good portion of our readers took the chance and it paid off. What’s hilarious is some books had the Lions as their biggest liability of the weekend. In most cases, we would’ve gone contrarian with the Vikings, but we’ve bet on the Vikings plenty and decided to sit this one out. We have not backed the Lions much this year and that’s been a decision we somewhat regret, as Americas lovable losers are 8-4 ATS. So congrats to Detroit for getting their first win, congrats to Dan Campbell for biting his first knee cap, and congrats to Jared Goff for being offensive player of the week (lol Mike Zimmer). But the party is over, and Vegas knows it. The Broncos failed to cover a 9.5 point spread in KC last week, and now they’re getting 8 points against a team who’s covering 66% of the time. This is too much respect for Denver. Vegas knows Detroit is about to crash hard with a Super Bowl hangover.
The Pick: Broncos -8
How the West was won - Rams @ Cardinals -2.5 Total 51.5
As predicted, the Rams had their get right game against Jacksonville last week rolling to a 37-7 win. Sure the Jags are bad, but the Rams desperately needed a punching bag. Sports betting is all about timing. You’ve got to buy the dips, and that’s exactly what we’re doing with the Rams here. The Cardinals went into LA earlier this year and could not be stopped. We don’t know how this game is going to play out when it comes to X’s and O’s, but we know that right side is backing McCvay. Arizona is getting 57% of the bets, but the sharp money is hitting LA. The line opened -3 and now ticked down to -2.5.
The Pick: Rams +3 (buy the .5)
The Bookies Pick of the Week
This one is gross, but those are our favorite. The bookie knows best so don’t ask questions and just punch the ticket. It’s our bookies pick of the week!
The Pick: Vikings ML
AHHHHHHAHHHHAHH UNDA!!! Falcons @ Panthers 42.5
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 15
Current Record: 47-35 YTD
(8-3) Army vs. (3-8) Navy +7.5 Total 33.5
The last regular season college football game of the year! All you need to know is fade the trendy dog. 60% of the bets are on Navy. Army is a legitimately good team this year, and the TD+ spread shows it. They almost beat Wisconsin on the road, fought hard with Wake Forest 70-56, and beat Western Kentucky who’s got the second best offense in the country. Army also hung tough with Cincinnati last year when they were ranked 8th. Meanwhile this Navy team might be its worst in over a decade. Sure they’ve also played close games against top opponents, but couldn’t manage to win any. Most notably was a 27-20 finish vs Cinci, and 28-20 finish vs Houston.
The Pick: Army -7 (buy 0.5)