Welcome to The Degenerate - Each week we’ll give you a few picks, insights, trends, and what to watch for on Sunday. Full disclosure - neither of us claim to be experts. We’re just two guys who’ve spent many years betting like chumps, and now we are passionate about helping others to avoid being one.
Happy Holidays Degens! Huge weekend with a lot of playoff implications at hand. Week 16 is a special spot. Division titles on the line, and a little over a half dozen teams hope to punch their playoff tickets. We’re going a little heavier on props this week, because why the fuck not?! Christmas weekend with prime time games four nights in a row - this is everything you ever wanted!
Christmas Day is for the dogs - Vikings @ Saints -7
Every elf and their mother is expecting a Saints bounce back in this spot. We got very lucky with a push last week against the Chiefs. Brees progresses, but it’s a slow process and the Vikings offense ain’t no slouch. Vikes have eliminated the Saints from the playoffs two of the last three years. Some might think this is a revenge spot, but we expect Purple to give Nawlins the fits. Don’t get greedy and take those points!
The Pick – Vikings +7
The Motor City is burning - Bucs @ Lions +9.5
Does it make any sense that the Bucs were -6.5 on the road vs the Falcons, and after a 17 comeback win, they are now 9.5 favorites in Detroit? We say no. Which can only mean one thing – Bucs roll. Offense has been hot and cold, but look for Tom to thrive against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL.
The Pick – Bucs -9 (buy the half)
Hawaiian Holiday Party - Dolphins @ Raiders +3
Here we go again. The Dolphins are the best team in the NFL ATS (11-3) and we’ve been on the wrong side of quite a bit of those (sorry!). A field goal isn’t enough here. Tell me your average shmo isn’t feeling good about a fins ML cheap price here? Bahbumbug I say! Mariota vs. Tua is the Christmas Miracle Hawaii has dreamed about, and Ota is out for blood trying to earn himself a starting spot. No plays off in Vegas, and the Raiders keep it close enough to cover.
The Pick – Raiders +3
Back to the Bungals - Bengals @ Texans -8
We’re so sorry that for Christmas we are gifting you another Texans pick, but a winner is a winner. This is way too many points for a 4-10 team facing an opponent that just put a primetime beat down on the Steelers. The Bengals and the points are a bit too trendy here. Don’t take the bait.
The Pick – Texans -8
Battle for the NFC West - Rams @ Seahawks -1.5
You thinking what we’re thinking? Yes…that Jets loss was the BEST thing to happen to the Rams. Good teams don’t tend to lose games they shouldn’t, but this is 2020 baby. Weird shit happens. They’ve already had a dreadful loss to the Niners who were decimated by injuries. McVay will get the best out of the boys as they travel for a massive game against Russ. We love the Rams early and often in this one.
The Pick – Rams +1.5
Player Props:
Josh Jacobs over total yards: The fins D is sore from all those runs against the Pats. Expect Josh to give Mariota some support here.
Dwat Over Passing yards: Because he’s just the man.
Phil Rivers Under passing yards – Been a little to easy for the Bolo man. Steelers D shows some pride.
Antonio Brown Over Receiving yards - For no apparent reason, Brady would die for this man, look for a couple big connections between this odd couple.
Quick hitters:
Titans @ Packers -3 - We hate betting against the Packers, but in a weird way, we also hate betting on them. We expect the public to put their money on the Pack not stopping Henry rather than Rodgers carving up the Titans. Not us! Go Pack Go
Browns @ Jets +9.5 - ….Why not…J E T S JETS JETS JETS!
AHHHHHHAHHHHAHH UNDA Bills Patriots Under 46
Overall: 60-43