It’s the most magical time of the year, and Covid Clause is coming to town! As if it isn’t hard enough to pick winners in the NFL, now Covid is throwing all its got to disrupting your families holidays and the NFL Schedule. Not looking forward to more Tuesday night football with the D list broadcast team, but at this point it seems inevitable. Couple of Covid strategies that might be worth following:
Wait till closer to kickoff before punching in your bets
Decrease your unit size (for the time being)
Nobody wants to have a max bet pending only to find out you’re stuck with Garrett Gilbert or Nick Mullens leading the charge.
The Degen had its first losing week since week 6. In hindsight, we probably loved the board a bit too much. Let’s all take a deep breath and proceed with caution. Some Covid news is bound to come up in the next few days to disrupt some lines. Less than 50 regular season games left and only one team has clinched a playoff spot so far. The margin for error is razor thin and you can guarantee the season will end in chaos, as most teams are fighting for their postseason lives. To week 16 we go.
NFL WEEK 16
Current Record: 76-54-1 YTD
Have yourself a contrarian Christmas - Colts @ Cardinals -1 Total 49
Buy low, sell high. There is no better buy low spot than a team fresh off a loss to the Lions, especially as 14 point favorites. The Cardinals have now lost 2 in a row, and are 1-2 since Kyler Murray has returned from injury. Once a frontrunner to win MVP, and Kliff at the top of the ranks for Coach of the Year - Arizona’s coach and QB are now both afterthoughts. All it took was a couple of weeks. The NFL is very much a “what have you done for me lately?” league, and the public are no different. You may not find a more trendy bet than the Colts on any given week with how Jonathan Taylor has been running. Winners of 5/6, they now find themselves as a short dog on the road, where they’ve been great all year (5-0 ATS). But in this particular spot, there’s a trend that we favor a bit more. That’s the Cardinals being 4-1 ATS following an ATS loss. The Colts are taking 58% of the bets and 72% of the money. We are putting ourselves with the house in this one.
The Pick: Cardinals -1 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
Start the Holidays out right - 49ers @ Titans +3 Total 44
Titans aren’t a sinking ship yet, but they’ve hit a few icebergs. The AFC South was all but won but the Colts aren’t going away. Pre-season I was all in on fading the Titans, but I was way off. Gotta give respect when it’s due. This team has played smart and they’ve played hard despite losing King Henry in mid-season. Vrable has proven to be a high-quality coach and he has consistently shown his team can at the very least hang with anybody. Now the Titans are starting to feel the pressure after losing 3 of their last 4 they’ve watched the Colts claw within one game of the division lead. Titans are getting backed into a corner, and nobody puts Vraby in the corner. The 49ers are one of the hottest teams in NFL and only two short years ago both of these teams were in their respective Conference Championships. This is sneakily one of the best games this weekend and we get it as an appetizer on Thursday night. Despite the public money coming in on the 49ers this line just ticked down from 3.5 to 3. That’s all we needed to see.
The Pick: Titans +3.5 (Buy 0.5) (Greg’s Best Bet)
Still got some gas in the tank - Browns @ Packers -7.5 Total 45.5
Aaron Rodgers is winning the Super Bowl this year. Take a moment to go throw up, we’ll wait... it feels inevitable. This prick would want nothing more to win it all and then walk out on the management team in Green Bay middle fingers blazing. As it stands, they control their own destiny to a 1st round BYE and home-field advantage. Should they make it to the NFC Championship, the Frozen Tundra will be extra icy with the 17 game season this year, as Conference Championships will be on Jan. 30th. Sooo that’s at least kinda cool, right? No. No, it isn’t. But enough about the Packers. This isn’t about them. This is about Baker and the gang. The Browns are pissed off about having to sit most of their roster last week against the Raiders, a move that very well might have cost them their season. That loss makes this game all but an elimination one for Cleveland. Every Who down in Who-ville is holding a Packers ticket. So naturally we’ll be backing the Browns to play the role of Grinch.
The Pick: Browns+ 7.5
It’s like watching a car crash - Jags @ Jets -2.5 Total 41.5
There are two types of people in this world. Those whose holiday weekend does not include paying any attention to this dogshit game with teams who have nothing to play for, and those who are salivating as they see this as a fishy line and perhaps one of the sharpest plays on the board. If you’re still reading this, then you’re probably the latter. Welcome to the Degenerate life! Last week the Jags took a ton of money and let everyone down, while the Jets did the opposite and covered the +9.5 in Miami. Recency bias is exactly why everyone is done with the Jags, and now we are seeing 78% of the bets on the Jets. But! Oh, and there’s a big ole but…72% of the money is hitting Jacksonville. The line opened Jets -2.5 yet it’s trending down in some books. Sharps want what the public doesn’t. This is the type of bet one must make when they go all in on the contrarian style of betting. Fun, right?!
The Pick: Jags +2.5
Purple pride - Rams @ Vikings +3 Total 49.5
Ohh Kirk Cousins you mysterious son of a bitch. What a wild team the Vikings have been. If nothing else, we love ‘ em for keeping us guessing. Nobody in the NFL can play up AND down to their opponents like Mike Zimmer and the Minnesota Vikings. There’s a lot on the line in this one. Rams need to win to if they want to stay relevant for the NFC West crown, and the Vikings need it if they want to remain in the playoff picture. Here’s where it gets tasty - a whopping 85% of the bets so far are on the Rams and yet the line is moving in the Vikings direction. Yum! This can only mean one thing - Vikings get up to a 10 point lead only to blow the game in the final two minutes. Buy the hook (if need be come Sunday) otherwise you’ll be kicking yourself into the new year when they miss a field goal to win the game.
The Pick: Vikings +3.5 (Buy 0.5)
Bet the better coach - Ravens @ Bengals -2.5 Total 45
Hate how much we have to say this, but we LOVE Joe Burrow. It’s like an obligatory disclaimer before we get into how we are going to fade him. To be clear it’s not so much Burrow as it is Zach Taylor. He just doesn’t have a face that can be trusted as a HC. Although, over the course of the season, we’re probably getting burned keeping up with this trend. Nevertheless, we carry on our wayward son. This game might as well be the AFC North Championship. Both teams are 8-6, and the Bengals beat the Ravens earlier this year in Baltimore. As of right now, all signs point to Lamar Jackson playing. If for any reason that is not the case – then this is a NO BET. We want LJ in this spot after missing last weeks game against the Packers. Harbaugh got his team within one play of taking down Green Bay, and did so with their backup QB. He’s a good coach, but his team is riddled with injuries. Doesn’t matter. What we like is the combination of these two trends: Cinci is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 as a home favorite, and Baltimore is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 following a loss. The public is leaning Bengals here, but the line is holding still. In Harbaugh we trust.
The Pick: Ravens +2.5
Elimination in Vegas - Broncos @ Raiders -1.5 Total 41.5
If you thought spending the holiday weekend with that one batshit crazy aunt in Qanon was going to be the wort part of your Christmas, think again. We’re betting on Drew Lock this Sunday! You can’t teach swagger and apparently you can’t teach him how to read a defense either. Both of these teams are one loss away from slipping out of the playoff conversation. A divisional game with the season on the line between two mediocre teams? We’re gonna lean towards the grittier one, despite less talent at the QB position. The Raiders won by 10 in the first match-up this year at mile high, and now they’re only a small favorite at home against the backup QB? We are riding the Broncos again this weekend, despite them letting us down last week as a best bet loser against the Bengals. A new trend is emerging as the Raiders have lost 3 in a row at home. You might want to wait for the money to come in on Vegas, as Teddy was just confirmed to be out for this game. Let’s see if we can get it at +2.5/3.
The Pick: Broncos +1.5
The Bookies Pick
Holy cannoli the pathetic Atlanta Falcons are -5.5 against Americas Team?! Nice try, Vegas. Thankfully we have a bookie on our side to keep us out of the traps.
The Pick: Falcons -5.5
HHHHHHAHHHHAHH UNDA!!! Colts @ Cardinals Under 50
COLLEGE FOOTBALL Bowl Week Pt. 2
Current Record: 48-38 YTD
Gotta be honest, these Bowl games are just hitting differently this year. Whether it’s more players sitting out making (smart) business decisions, or players and staff missing games because of Covid, we can’t really tell. But to try and bet them all is definitely forcing it. So let’s just try and focus on the games that appear to be the most “fun” on paper.
(8-4) UCLA vs (9-3) NC St -1
Rumors are circulating that this could be Chip Kelly’s last game at UCLA, as the door is wide open for his return to Oregon. You could say that may be a potential distraction for the Bruins, but we aren’t buying it. UCLA won it’s last 3 games of the season by an average of 26 points. It should also be mentioned that NC St closed out the year winning 4/5 including a comeback win against UNC. The San Diego bowl may as well be a home game for UCLA, and we like the Bruins offense to fire on all cylinders here.
The Pick: UCLA +1
(9-3) #18 Clemson vs (7-5) Iowa St +1
A very underwhelming year for Dabo and the Tigers, and now their D Coordinator has left to be the new HC at Oklahoma. Although DJ and the Clemson offense were duds, their defense was still legit. The Tigers ended the year winning 5 straight and shutout South Carolina 30-0 in it’s final game. This line might be a little fishy, but we don’t care. Iowa St went 1-2 to end the year, and we simply don’t think they’re a good team. Matt Campbell also seems like kind of a turd. Knock on wood if you’re with us.
The Pick: Clemson -1
(10-3) #14 Oregon vs (10-2) #16 Oklahoma -4.5
Nobody and I mean NOBODY want’s to bet the Ducks in this spot. After getting embarrassed by Utah in back to back games, Mario Cristobal headed south for Miami. The Ducks are one of the only teams that have not replaced their HC. This is as contrarian of a spot as you’ll find in all of bowl season. Yes, Oklahoma is without Lincoln Riley, but the public is blindly going to bet on the team with the stud player, and that is QB Caleb Williams. The Sooners are getting 68% of the bets. Let’s have one last quack!
The Pick: Oregon +4.5