We’ll be coming to you a bit later in the week now that Thursday Night Football is over. Way too much uncertainty headed into the Sunday games lately, and we could use the extra day to get our best read. Another dull week from your favorite gambling newsletter. 4-5 ain’t gonna cut it. At least we subbed out the Ravens for the Bills after the Josh Johnson news broke.
The Playoff picture is starting to materialize, but not much is set in stone yet. Let’s right the ship and start the New Year off with some winners.
NFL WEEK 17
Current Record: 80-59-1 YTD
Bye, bye Ben - Browns @ Steelers +3.5 Total 41
Get your tissues out ladies and gentlemen. Big Ben has hinted that this could be the last home game of his career. Sad times. The Steelers not only have that to play for, but also some serious revenge after getting beat by the Browns in the Playoffs last year 48-37. You might not remember, but the Browns jumped out to a 28-0 lead before the Steelers mounted a comeback. This game is going to have all the feels, and you can bet the public is drooling over this double whammy of angles to play for the Steelers. As it stands Pitt is getting 59% and 77% of the money. Typically we follow the smart money…but not here. We’re going to be with the books in primetime. Despite Baker throwing 4 and what could have been 6 interceptions last week, the Browns still came close to taking down Green Bay. Yes Baker is bad, but the Browns aren’t. The Steelers won the first matchup of the year in Cleveland, and we don’t see them sweeping. Another bet to keep your eye on is Cleveland +550 to win the division. They end the year @ Pitt and then home vs Cinci. If they win out, and the the Bengals (who play the Chiefs this week) lose out, then the division belongs to the Browns. Could be worth a shot!
The Pick: Browns ML (Brandon’s Best Bet)
Back on the trolly - Texans @ 49ers -12.5 Total 43.5
Don’t look now but the Houston Texans are getting hot! Not really, but back to back wins isn’t something anyone expected from them this year. Davis Mills has been finding his groove lately and the Texans are starting to actually look like an NFL caliber team. Last we saw Jimmy G and the 49ers, they were sputtering out on the road against the Titans. Gonna keep this simple - lotta points for SF considering the situation, and the public knows it. 82% of bettors are on the Texans in this spot. And guess what? The line moved in the 49ers favor. It’s very clear Jimmy G has his flaws, and now he’s questionable for this game. Whether it’s JG or Lance starting, it doesn’t phase us. Look for Shanahan to right the ship and mop the floor with the Texans in a must win game to keep themselves in the playoff picture.
The Pick: 49ers -12.5 (Greg’s Best Bet)
A beat down in Buffalo - Falcons @ Bills -14 Total 44
High of 37, low of 20 and 80% chance of snow. Does this sound like the type of climate Matt Ryan thrives in? No…no it does not. The Falcons stink, yet they are somehow still in the playoff hunt at 7-8. This game actually means something for them, and Vegas is giving them 14 points? That’s all you need to know. The Bills and Josh Allen were at the top of the underachieving mountain for most of the year. Down in the dumps after a pathetic loss in Jacksonville, and then getting embarrassed at home losing to the Pats with Mac Jones only throwing 3 passes. But winning cures everything, and that’s exactly what they’ve done the last two weeks. Just like that, the Bills are in 1st place in the AFC East after getting revenge on the Pats in New England. Vegas has respected the Bills all season. Even at .500 their Super Bowl Odds never fell out of the top 5. Now they’re the third shot on the board at +850 in most books. This spread tells the story of an inevitable beat down by Buffalo this Sunday.
The Pick: Buffalo -14
Not quite ready to run with the big dogs - Chiefs @ Bengals +5 Total 51
Hell hath no fury like the Chiefs in December. After stumbling out the gate this year, the Chiefs are an absolute buzzsaw lately. Yes, they’re on an 8 game win streak and control their own destiny for home field advantage in the playoffs. But more importantly for gamblers - they’ve covered 6 in a row ATS. Now they step in to play Burrow and the Bengals. It pains us to keep fading Burrow, but something just doesn’t sit quite right with this team figuring everything out and coming together so quickly. All the credit in the world to Zach Taylor as they’ve gone 4-0 against the Steelers and the Ravens in divisional games this year, outscoring their typical bullies by a total count of 147-58. Amazing turnaround. One thing the Bengals have yet to do this year is win 3 games in a row. Each time they seem to be rolling they hit a road block and drop a game or two. We don’t see this one going any differently - look for the Chiefs to pull away in a fun one.
The Pick: Chiefs -5
We are TuAnon. Expect us. - Dolphins @ Titans -3.5 Total 40
What a run for the Dolphins this year. Somehow being the first team in NFL history to both win AND lose 7 games in a row. Their current 7 game win steak is a little less impressive when you see it included the Jets (x2), Giants, Texans, Panthers and Ian Book. But who cares! This team was dead after losing to the Jags in London, and yet somehow Zombie Tua has led them back. It’s certainly a long shot with the Patriots coming to town next week, but Miami controls their own destiny for a playoff spot. We are holding Dolphins O9.5 wins and Brian Flores Coach of the Year tickets that are both still a long shot, but had less value than a dirty napkin back on Halloween. The majority of the public are feeling Tennessee in this one and you can’t really fault them. Vrable has the Titans poised to win their Division for the second straight year. With a total of 40, we expect an ugly game and maybe even a Dolphins upset, but taking the points to play it safe.
The Pick: Dolphins +3.5
Baltimore’s last stand - Rams @ Ravens +4.5 Total 46.5
If the coach of the year award was based on heart and not wins, Harbaugh would be a lock. Despite the injuries and Covid cases, the Ravens are a few spoiled 2 pt conversions away from making the playoffs. The season isn't over in Baltimore yet, but with a loss on Sunday it will be. The Rams are quietly riding a four game win streak but still don't seem to be clicking on offense like they were when the season started. The NFC West is down to a two pony race and the Rams have a chance to clinch the division on Sunday with a win and a Cardinals loss. The only thing we can tell you with certainty in this one is that absolutely no one believes in the Ravens here. 80% of the public are on the Rams, but (surprise!) we don't think this will be as easy as it looks. LA is making another cross country trip after playing in Minnesota last week. And it's a 1pm start time? Perfect opportunity to capitalize on the Rams coming in rusty.
The Pick: Ravens +4.5
Catching a falling knife - Cardinals @ Cowboys -6 Total 51
The betting public appears to have fallen out of love with the Arizona Cardinals, and back into love with the Cowboys. Dallas is once again Americas team. Dak and the boys have won 4 straight, and just destroyed WFT on primetime 56-14. Meanwhile the Cards have lost 3 straight, and Kyler Murray looks broken. Just like a repeat of last year, he started the season amazing, but then fades in the second half of it. The Cardinals were once 7-0 but now find themselves 10-5 and 2nd place in the division behind the Rams. What the public may have forgotten is that the Cards are a MUCH better road team. They’re 7-1 outside of AZ (and 3-4 at home). This line opened Cowboys -2.5 and quickly jumped to -4/5 after Sundays results. The public has been HAMMERING Dallas every which way. We like the market overreaction here.
The Pick: Cardinals +6
The Bookies Pick
Don’t like it, LOVE IT! WFT had a worse time in Dallas than JFK. This is your sharpest bet on the board. Let’s shock the world with the Bookies Pick of the week!
The Pick: WFT + 3.5
HHHHHHAHHHHAHH UNDA!!! Cowboys Cardinals Total 51
COLLEGE FOOTBALL Bowl Week Pt. 3
Current Record: 49-39 YTD
Bowl Season is usually one of the best times of the year for a gambler. But this year…not so much. As we mentioned last week, due to all the players missing with opt outs and Covid, it’s very hard to get the right read on these games. In years past, we’d be betting almost all of them. Now, we’ve got to be very selective. But the meat and potatoes have arrived. Full disclosure: we’re going all in on what’s remaining, even if it’s forcing it.
Cincinnati vs. Alabama +13.5 - Under 57
There are two trends impossible to ignore – bet on double digit dogs (6-0 ATS) and fade the SEC. Cinci it is then, right?! Ehh. Look, as contrarian gamblers, you want the Bearcats. Bama is getting 73% of the bets and almost all of the money. Nobody wants to fade a fired up Saban playing with house money. But we can’t bring ourselves to do it. Instead, there’s another way we are playing this game, and that’s the UNDER. We don’t usually pick totals in college games, but this is our favorite bet of the bowl season. Cinci’s defense is actually legit with a handful of NFL draft picks. Their offense? Meh. Desmond Ridder was one of our Heisman picks but he doesn’t have “it”. We like this to be a hard fought game with some ugly offense.
The Pick: Under 57
Michigan vs. Georgia -7.5
It’s no secret that the entire world is rooting for anything other than a Bama/Georgia rematch in the Championship game. Sadly, we feel it’s inevitable. The betting public thinks Michigan is the team to slay the SEC beast, but we’re here to tell you it aint happening. Vegas set this line with the hook just baiting you to take Michigan here, and the public has been biting. Michigan is a trendy dog, and what do we do in big games? That’s right class – we fade the trendy dog. Our hope is that either Michigan or Cinci wins, but our thoughts are that Georgia will beat Bama in the rematch.
The Pick: Georgia -7.5
Iowa vs. Kentucky -3
We admittedly can’t keep up with what players are in or out, but we do follow the line movement, and there was a big one in this game. Why? Well after a quick google search it would appear Iowa’s star RB Ty Goodson is skipping this game. Kentucky had a pretty solid season finishing 9-3 and solo 2nd in the SEC East behind Georgia. What they’ve unfortunately got now is everyone holding a Kentucky ticket. And for that reason, we are out on the Wildcats. It’s not fun betting on Iowa football, especially after they just got throttled 42-3 against Michigan. But this is the contrarian life we’ve chosen. Our only hope here is that Kirk Ferentz (Iowa HC) has the boys fired up to play in warm weather and against a ranked SEC opponent.
The Pick: Iowa +3
Utah vs Ohio St -4
Speaking of line movements! The Buckeyes opened as a touchdown favorite, but sharp money has been all over Utah. They’re now down to +4. This is a tough spot. As much as we want to follow the money, we also don’t want to get the worst of the number. At this point, we think the value is back with OSU. Do we love this bet? Not at all. Utah has been red fucking hot since making their QB change. Winning 9/10 games to end the year, including two beatdowns of Oregon to win the Pac-12. This is a very tough team to fade, but we feel like we’re too late to the party.
The Pick: Ohio St -4
Oklahoma St. vs. Notre Dame -2 Total 44.5
Everyone is drooling over the viral video of Marcus Freeman, new ND head coach, being announced to the team.
You can clearly tell the Irish are fired up after being abandoned by Brian Kelly. The problem? Read the first word in this write up. EVERYONE. That’s right, every single person is on ND here. You can’t find anyone who wants to take OK St, especially after a brutal loss to Baylor in the Big 12 Championship. We are passing on a side here, and instead going with a total for the second time this weekend. Both teams have great defenses, and we think both show up.
The Pick: UNDER 44.5