Chop wood, carry water. Mediocre week 17 at 4-4-1, but you can smell the main course. Playoff football is right around the bend, so make sure you take your significant other out for a date night this weekend, because we’ve got 6 (!) playoff games coming up. Little light on picks this week. Impossible to know who’s going to play, who’s sitting this one out, and who’s just going to roll over and die. No need to force anything - save our ammo for the postseason.
A few quick housekeeping notes: hopefully you waited till Sunday to jump on the picks, because there was some tremendous line movement. Specifically, we waited (and hopefully you did too) to take WFT closer to kickoff at +6 as opposed to the mid-week line of +3.5. We will be counting this one as a loss on our record, because we’re such standup guys, but our wallets will beg to differ. Again, with all the Covid uncertainty we are dealing with in these games, there is no reason to be punching in bets early.
NFL WEEK 18
Current Record: 84-63-2 YTD
Steelers @ Ravens -5 Total 41.5
Somehow both of these teams playoffs hopes are still alive if the Jags beat the Colts, but that does not factor into this pick at all. We assume both teams are going into this game knowing their season is done - but one team more so than the other. That would be the Steelers. They’re final act was going out with a W for Big Ben’s last home game, one that I was on the wrong side of last week (sorry!). Ben is the first QB ever to win a game attempting more than 40 passes while throwing for less than 150 yards. The dog is finally about to be put down, and he did so in a beautifully disgusting fashion. Vegas knows the Steelers played their Super Bowl last week, which is why the Ravens (who’ve lost 5 straight games) are such heavy favorites. LJ is expected back for this game, but the Ravens are decimated. Every year a team has the black cloud over their heads and it started early in Baltimore this year with them losing JK Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Marcus Peters in the offseason. Pittsburgh has already made peace with their mediocre performance this year, and we expect them to act like this game doesn’t even exist. All eyes on Baltimore to not end their season on a 6 game losing streak.
The Pick: Ravens -5 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
Chargers @ Raiders +3 Total 49.5
By far the most meaningful game of the weekend and it will be Primetime on Sunday night. Essentially the first Playoff game of the year as the loser will be eliminated. Vegas has been the definition of hot/cold starting the season 5-2, then hitting a 1-5 rut, and now winning 3 in a row. Yes their recent streak was made up of Nick Mullens, Drew Lock, and a Covid brained Carson Wentz, but winning in the NFL ain’t easy no matter the opponent. Do we love the Raiders here? No. Do we like them? Not really. So why take ‘em? This one just checks too many boxes. Divisional game, home dog, public all over the Chargers. Last time they met LA jumped out to a 21-0 lead a the half. It would take a real sick fuck to ride the Raiders here. Welcome to the club.
The Pick: Raiders +3.5 (buy the .5)
49ers @ Rams -4.5 Total 44.5
This one isn’t a playoff game, but its close. Rams need a win to clinch the division, 49ers need a win to clinch a playoff spot. Both teams will be coming out to play. It’s no secret at this point that Kyle Shanahan has owned Sean McVay as he’s now won 5 straight. Our pick for this one is based solely on the line. Feels high, right? Even with Lance potentially starting this game. Putting this one anything over 3.5 makes our spidey senses tingle. 61% of the public is on SF with the points and 76% is taking 49ers ML, and who can blame ‘em? SF embarrassed LA earlier this year 31-10. But, that was a simpler time. A run, run, run, and let Jimmy G dink and dunk time. Look for Trey Lance to struggle mightily and McVay to get the monkey off his back. Rams early, Rams often.
The Pick: Rams -4.5
Saints @ Falcons +4.5 Total 40
The situation here as we understand it is that the Saints need to win and the Niners need to lose in order for New Orleans to make the playoffs. That sets up the Falcons to play spoiler at home, which the public seems to be aware of. Our data shows that 58% of the bets are on the Falcons, but the line is moving with them, so the sharp money is hitting Atlanta as well. We think this will be a classic case of the favorite winning but not covering. At first glance, we thought about not even playing this game. But then it hit us. Something that nobody is talking about…can you guess what it is? We might be witnessing Matt Ryans last home game as a Falcon! As if Bens finale didn’t make you cry enough, now Falcons fans get ready to say goodbye to the stick of butter that is Matt Ryan. His career had some ups, but many downs. One thing to note is that Atlanta beat the Saints earlier in the year in New Orleans. We do NOT think they’ll sweep. But given that Vegas has this at a low total (40), we think this will be a close game that the Saints sneak out to keep their playoff hope alive.
The Pick: Falcons +4.5
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Current Record: 51-41-1 YTD
Alabama vs Georgia -3 Total 52
This is probably going to be a tough pill for most of you to swallow. This game and this pick defines you as a gambler. There’s no better test of someones betting ability than a rematch of two opponents who’ve played recently, and now meet in a Championship game. The line was Georgia -7 when these two teams met in the SEC Title game. We were on Bama then, but we are fading them now. In the first meeting, Bama was just coming off an improbable comeback win against a shitty 6-6 Auburn team, and were anything but a trendy dog. We chose to go with the stats of Saban as an underdog, and it was the right side to be on. But don’t get greedy. You think Vegas doesn’t know everyone is going to be coming back for seconds expecting a full plate while rubbing their belly? Bama is getting 65% of the tickets, yet the line ticked up from -2.5 to -3. The sharps know Georgia is the better team and you should too. The oddsmakers gave us a treat with Saban getting 7 points last time, but this isn’t Halloween. Grow up Peter Pan - the Georgia Bulldogs are winning the Championship.
The Pick: Georgia ML