“Gambling is a disease, but it’s the only disease where you can win a bunch of money.”
- Norm MacDonald R.I.P.
NFL WEEK 2
(Current record: 6-3 YTD)
Great start to the season for the Degen. As a quick note - we are forced to go off the numbers on Wednesday night to get the newsletter out Thursday. However, with most contrarian picks, it can be beneficial to wait till Sunday as the line is likely to move in your favor. The Lions this past weekend are a perfect example opening at +7.5, but we got it at +9.5 on Sunday (we ARE counting this one as a loss on our record though) and it led to one of the best back door covers in recent history.
Week 2 is here and the public is quick to make assumptions based on a limited sample size. Vegas plays the long game, and will slowly adjust lines based on the recent outcomes and their pre-season evaluations. Be careful not to be a sucker and get too high/low on a team off the jump.
A slow play in Chicago - Bengals @ Bears - 2.5 Total 45
The Bears stink. Matt Nagy stinks. Andy Dalton stinks. With that said…we LOVE the Bears in this spot. We did not choose the contrarian life - it chose us. Let’s put on our ultimate optimist hat here. Not only did Dalton fail to complete a pass over 10 yards against the Rams, we don’t think he even attempted one. So, let’s say Nagy is a billion times smarter than we think he is, and he just chalked up week 1 up as a loss when the schedule came out in the offseason. We all know Justin Fields is and should be the guy, but we also know it’s not the best idea to throw him into SNF against Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey on the road for his first start. So it’s fair to say we agree with Nagy there. Digging deeper into the optimism, let’s also say he doesn’t open up the playbook in the opener. Running the ball and calling the most conservative pass plays we’ve seen since Pop Warner. Maybe, just maybe Week 1 was out of reach, and rather than fight to the death, the Bears fell on their own sword. The Bengals looked pretty good against the Vikings, despite Zach Taylor doing everything he could to give the game away (going for it on 4th down from his own 30 yard line up 21-7). Burrow is the man, and the Degenerate might be his biggest fan. But…perhaps the Bears took the smart route, and prepared all off-season for week 2 which is a VERY winnable game. The Bengals are one of the most heavily bet teams this weekend, so this one is right up our alley.
The Pick: Bears ML -135 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
Sunshine and grit in the 305 - Bills @ Dolphins +3.5 Total 47.5
“No way the Bills go 0-2” - every sucker at 12:30 pm on Sunday. If you read our pre-season futures reports you’ll remember we highlighted that late last year teams started to catch onto Buffalo’s pass happy offense. For them to make the next step, they’d need to develop more of a run game. In Week 1 Josh Allen had a career high 51 pass attempts. Wrong direction, brah. At first glace you could say the Bills were a blocked punt away from winning, but the Steelers D gave ‘em huge problems. Forcing four fumbles (Bills recovered 3) and seemingly getting pressure on Josh Allen every single drop back. Clearly, the Bills are in the upper class of the AFC, but we think they’re going to experience some early growing pains this season. Up in New England, the Dolphins showed a ton of heart in a hard fought game against a big division rival. Fun Fact: of all the animals in the Sea, the Dolphin has the largest heart*. Tua had one of the worst interceptions you’ll see this year late in this game. But, his defense bailed him out forcing a late fumble, and Malcom Brown stepped in to play Mariano Rivera as the Dolphins secured the win. Look for more of the same as Miami grits out a tough one in the hot Florida sun.
*This is absolutely not true
The Pick: Dolphins +3.5 (Greg’s Best Bet)
The fake sharp play of the week - 49ers @ Eagles + 3.5 Total 50
Jalen Hurts is looking more and more like the real deal every time we get a chance to watch him. He was damn near perfect in Atlanta last weekend. Everyone has already forgotten he was once a controversial pick with Carson Wentz at the helm. This what you dream of in an overreaction spot. No one on the Asslanta defense is in the same stratosphere as Nick Bosa. Let’s see how Hurts does under serious pressure and against a real NFL secondary. Despite getting outscored down the stretch 23-3 against the Lions, San Francisco looks to be back after an injury riddled 4-12 season. So what gives? Why is this line so low? SF will be playing their second straight road game and didn’t bother returning home after Detroit. Straight to Philly, onto the next. If this was mid-season our tone would be different, but who cares if you play back to back road games in Week 2? This Niner team is licking their chops and ready to play bully ball all year. Don’t get too cute here though, lay the beef and take the Moneyline.
The Pick: Niners ML (-185)
A battle of new beginnings - Saints @ Panthers +3.5 Total 44.5
Oh Jameis how I (Major) love you so! Nothing better than the ongoing debate between Greg and I about whether Jaboo should still be a starting QB or not, and then he goes out and throws 5 TD passes. Most importantly: ZERO TURNOVERS! Unfortunately, I’ve gotta pump the brakes a bit in week 2. Per our season preview write ups - you know we are high on the Panthers, and this is putting our money where our mouth is. They’re going to have to win games like this, and we think they do (or cover at least). Expect Jameis to come back down to earth a bit, and Darnold starts a slow progression of becoming a solid starting QB.
The Pick: Panthers +3.5
Rams @ Colts +4 Total 48
There is a very legitimate chance Carson Wentz just might just be bad. Frank Reich, however, is still a very good coach. Sure, they came out sluggish against Seattle, and easily could’ve lost that game 40-10. This is simply the perfect type of bet for week 2 aka Overreaction Week. The Rams looked very good. The Colts…not so much. So what’s your average bettor going to do? Take the Rams. Don’t be a lemming! This Colts defense should tighten up and certainly give Stafford a few more fits than the Bears did. The Rams run defense showed a bit of weakness in their opener, as David Montgomery looked great and averaged 10 yards per carry. This could be something to exploit for the Colts. Look for Indy’s backfield to have a day here and keep it close.
The Pick: Colts +4
C’Mon ‘N Ride It (The Train) - Titans @ Seahawks -5.5 Total 54
No one is talking about the Seahawks this year! We said it 4 times! The key to success for the Seattle offense is proving to be equal parts let Russ Cook and let Chris Carson Eat. The Titans need to figure out their defense very quickly or this is going to be an incredibly long season. The pass rush was a huge absence for Tennessee last year, and newly acquired Bud Dupree (5 year, $82.5 Million) had 1 tackle last week. Problematic to say the least. If this D can’t muster up some pressure on Russ, this one is as good as over. On the other side of the ball, if you thought the Titans offense looked bad at home against the Cardinals, wait till you see them on the road in Seattle. Next stop on the 2021 Titan fade train.
The Pick: Seahawks -5.5
Contrarian Play of the Week - Vikings @ Cardinals -4
Trivia question: Who lead all QB’s in passing yards on Sunday? Answer: Kirk Cousins! Seriously, we didn’t believe it either. Look it up. You’re going to need balls of steel to tail the Vikings again. Especially after watching the Cardinals offense dominate last week. But follow the tread, what goes up must come down. It’s going to take a healthy dose of Dalvin Cook to keep ‘em in it, but somehow, someway, Minnesota keeps this one close and covers.
The pick: Vikings +4
The Bookies Pick
We actually do like this one! It’s our…(drumroll)…Bookies Pick of the Week!
The Pick: Ravens +3.5
AHHHHHHAHHHHAHH UNDA!!! Bengals @ Bears Under 45.5
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 2
(Current record: 6-4 YTD)
A 2-3 week was not great, but not the worst. Kansas fought hard, ECU blew a 14 point lead and Iowa St just flat out stinks. Speaking of Kansas - revert to our intro. The write up had this line at +25, but it went off at +27. You could’ve gotten a push if you waited so just keep an eye on the movement during the week.
Maryland -7.5 @ Illinois Total 60.5
Illinois recently lost at home to UTSA (which we picked on Twitter, so follow us you turkeys), and Maryland is 2-0 with a win against West Virginia. We dunno…this line just seems low. Do you love our expert breakdowns or what?!
The Pick: Illinois +7.5
Michigan State @ Miami -6 Total 56.5
The Spartans have looked GOOD, and Miami has looked BAD. It’s really that simple. How the hell are the Canes almost a touchdown favorite here?! All they’ve done was get destroyed against Bama and barely beat App St. Fade the trendy dog here.
The Pick: Miami -6
#18 Coastal Carolina @ Buffalo +14.5 Total 58
Coastal is such a fun team, we really hate fading them so much. But here we are yet again. Buffalo just got clobbered 28-3 against pathetic Nebraska. Meanwhile CC has been rolling. This line isn’t necessarily fishy, but we think the public should be all over Coastal here and this could bode well for a Buffalo bounce back.
The Pick: Buffalo +14.5
#8 Cincinnati -4 @ Indiana Total 50
I bet you’re thinking we are going Indiana here, dont’cha?! Well you’d be wrong. Yes, this line is low and appears to be a trap. But it’s SO low, that we think it’s a TRAP TRAP. It’s not always as easy as just fading the public. Sometimes you have to out-think even yourself. Bearcats roll.
The Pick: Cincinnati ML -180
USC -8.5 @ Washington State Total 62
System play for us here, which you may or may not know depending on how long you’ve followed us. Any time a team fires a coach, we ALWAYS bet on that team their following game. USC finally got rid of boring ass Clay Helton, which was long overdue. Wazzou is in big trouble here.
The Pick: USC -7 (buy 1.5 points)
Best of luck in the games this week! Subscribe and PLEASE share below!