Week 4

Rookie Revenge


(Current record: 17-10 YTD)

Week 4. A full bite out of the proverbial Big Cat season sandwich. It goes quick. Cherish every moment, even the losses.

The picture is starting to emerge after the opener, and we are getting an idea of who the pretenders and contenders are. The biggest trend thus far is the lackluster performance of this years highly touted rookie QB class. They’re 1-10 ATS, and the lone cover came when Mac and the Pats beat Zach and the Jets. Stoppable force meets movable object. We aren’t even including Davis Mills in this conversation (technically 1 for 11). If you’ve learned one thing from us, it’s that we live to bet against the narrative. It certainly wasn’t the best of times in Week 3, but we are back on our trusty contrarian horse and ready for WAR!

Big pressure in a home opener - Giants @ Saints -8 Total 43

UGH. It pains me to make this my best bet, but it must be done. Jameis can’t be trusted quite yet. So far, we are 2-0 when betting on the Saints. Backed em against GB week 1 (in Jax), and faded week 2 at Carolina. Feels like we’ve got a good read on em. Since Hurricane Ida hit, the Saints haven’t been home. This was over a month ago. Now, they’ll be making their home opener in what will surely be an insane atmosphere. What better opponent to face than the pathetic 0-3 New York Giants? This is the most pressure Jameis will face maybe all season as a starter. First game in front of the home fans, and you want him to cover an 8 point spread? I don’t care how bad the opponent is - I’m not that confident in him (yet). Jameis somehow has thrown 7 TD’s and only 387 yards through the first 3 games. I guess Sean Payton has to be satisfied with his play thus far though. Not great, but not terrible. Only 2 INT’s is remarkable given he threw 30 in his last season as a starter. The Giants are a mess. Joe Judge’s seat is as hot as anyone’s in the NFL not named Matt Nagy. Their receivers are banged up, but none of that is factoring into this decision. It’s really all about Jameis and the pressure of delivering a W for the city of New Orleans. The Giants still have a fairly stout defense, and this will be an ugly, low scoring game. In those situations we tend to favor the dog if they’re getting over a touchdown. One last thing to note: Danny Dimes got his first NFL win against the Jameis led Bucs in Tampa. Perhaps he’s just got his number? Can’t wait to find out!

The Pick: Giants +8 (Brandon’s Best Bet)

Rookie revenge Pt. 1 - Titans @ Jets +8 Total 46

Okay, let’s start with a personal item. I (Greg) went though a roughly 0-20 stretch betting on/against the Jets for 3 years. Last year I caught and killed the monkey on my back, and I have been Patiently Waiting like 50 Cent to take my next swing on the Jets…and here it is. Titans rolling into town after beating the only thing that resembles a football team in their division. Jets returning home after being shut out in Denver. Zach don’t fail me now! Ok - Wilson and the Jets have been embarrassing at best, but here’s the silver lining. So far they have played:

  • Panthers - #1 D in NFL to date

  • Patriots - Belichick 22-6 vs rookie QB’s

  • Broncos - High altitude, great defense

Not sure what anyone expected, but 0-3 ATS is about as good as it gets up to this point. Maybe the Jets are well on their way to ruining another promising young QB’s career, but our bet is they find a way to move the ball and fight hard enough to pull off a cover at home.

The Pick: Jets +8 (Greg’s Best Bet)

Purple rain rolling in - Browns @ Vikings +2 Total 51.5

Week 3 wasn’t our best, as it was our first losing week of the season, but we are proud the Vikings (+3 vs Seahawks) came through. Russ was carving up their very vanilla defense and got out to a 17-7 lead, but then the mighty men dressed in purple managed to shut out Russ and the Hawks for the last 40 mins. After a Seattle missed FG, it was all Kirk. He put together another great game, and now has 918 yards/8 TD’s/0 turnovers on the season. The first QB in NFL history to put up those numbers and not have a winning record. The casual fan is starting to come around and give the Vikings respect, but we are very surprised to see Vegas give them THIS much respect at home vs the Browns. Cleveland was a trendy pick as a SB sleeper. Despite blowing a lead in week 1 to KC, there is zero reason for the public to waiver on their pre-season perception of the Browns. Baker and the running game look good. Myles Garrett is a machine. The defense just threw the Bears around like rag dolls. This looks like a tasty public treat to get the Browns on a cheap ML price, but the Degen doesn’t have a sweet tooth. Give us Kirkalicious and his gang of purple to start stacking some W’s.

The Pick: Vikings +2

A cockroach can live for a week without its head - Lions @ Bears -2.5 Total 42

Poor Detroit. They somehow always manage to get fucked. You really gotta feel for that city and fanbase. For being an 0-3 team, they’re as gritty as you’d expect from Dan Campbell’s knee cap biting press conference. A near miracle backdoor in week 1, another that came down to final drive in week 2, and then a record breaking FG away from huge underdog winner in week 3. They’ve got bettors attention for all the right reasons except winning. And then there’s the Bears. Could Nagy potentially be coaching his last game Sunday? You gotta think that’ll be the motivation Dan will use to keep the Lions fired up this week. Unfortunately for him (and Bears fans), Nagy is a New York City cockroach. This guy won’t die. The Bears are going to win this game. “But Degen, how could you say that without knowing who’s starting at QB?”. It doesn’t matter! Soldier field brings out the worst in people. It brings out the worst in home teams. It brings out the worst in away teams. No one is safe. It’s a terrible product on the field. Goff is a California kid, and has already shown he doesn’t do well when outdoors in the Midwest. The last time he played in Chicago, the Rams lost 15-6, and Goff threw 0 TDs and 4 INTs (lol). The only QB to figure this field out is Rodgers. Seriously, even the SB winning Bucs lost to Nick Foles in Chicago last year. Don’t try and get cute picking the Lions in your survivor pool. You’ve been warned!

The Pick: Bears ML

Reading between the lines - Panthers @ Cowboys -4.5 Total 50.5

This is about as tricky of a game as we will ever take. Personal preference is going to dictate your inclination as both teams have opened 3-0 ATS on the season. Our allegiance is with Carolina on this one. One trend we like to keep an eye on is if the game has split action, and the line moves in one of the teams favor. Check and check. Action is split with the Cowboys getting 52% of bets and yet the opening line of -5 is down to -4.5. This is a signal that big bettors and sharp money are coming in to the Panthers. There are certainly valid reasons to want to fade the Panthers - notably losing CMC and 1st round CB Jaycee Horn. But on the plus side, they have as good of a rest advantage as you can hope for coming off Thursday Night and Cowboys playing Monday in a big divisional game. Close one to call, but there is enough for us to back this one ending in a late FG and the Panthers to cover on the road.

The Pick: Panthers +4.5

Follow your nose - WFT @ Falcons +1.5 Total 48

The biggest surprise to the start of the season might be how bad Washington’s defense has been. They’re allowing the 2nd most yards (431) per game, and just bent over in Buffalo while Josh Allen dropped 43 points on em. All the talk this offseason was how dominate their front 7 was. Even we at the Degen said to take Chase Young at DPOY +1800. Not great! Thankfully, a week 4 trip to Atlanta is just what the Doctor ordered. Sure, we are fading WFT long-term and holding an under ticket, but that doesn’t mean we won’t pick and choose our spots to back them in the season. WFT beating the Giants on a last second field goal at home isn’t cool, but the way they did it with Heinicke was. That balloon got popped pretty quick in Buffalo. Feels like the public jumped shipped very quickly after that drubbing and continued frustration from their D. Now bettors will shift their focus, and start to ask if the Falcons win in New Jersey last week is what Matt Ryan needed to get his mediocre groove back. We think not. Atlanta is still putrid, and this is a perfect get right week for WFT. The line opened with Atlanta being a short 1 point favorite. Despite the tickets being fairly split, we now have WFT -1.5. Scroll up, this is what we call split line movement. The tickets are split, but the sharp money coming in on WFT has flipped the line. Follow it.

The Pick: WFT -1.5

A rookie bucks the trend Pt. 2 - Jags @ Bengals +7.5 Total 46

Welcome to the NFL, Trevor Lawrence! Can’t imagine how much this guy misses ACC defenses. The Jags showed a ton of heart last week. They were up 19-10 with 3 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, and somehow couldn’t cover a 7.5 point spread. Despite the outcome, Lawrence was drastically improved from his first two outings. All you can ask for out of a rookie QB on a bad team is to show a steady improvement. It may not happen game over game, but we think he’s headed in the right direction with getting a welcomed relief after playing the Broncos and Cardinals defenses. This one isn’t as much about Jacksonville figuring anything out as it is the young Bengals coming off a huge divisional week in Pittsburgh, and four days later prepping for a game that mentally they have already won. Look for classic Thursday night disgusting Jaguars football and believe in the cover.

The Pick: Jaguars +7.5

Contrarian pick of the week - Steelers @ Packers -6.5 Total 45.5

Take a deep breath. What we are about to say is going to make you want to throw up. Big Ben appears to have the athleticism of a JV high school lineman after 16 beers. 58 pass attempts last week, each one more inaccurate and depressing than the last. Najee Harris had 19 targets. Juju and Dioante are banged up. The defense has been injured, giving up big plays, and unable to get any pressure on opposing QB’s since TJ Watt got hurt. And yet… the Pack are less than a TD favorite at home? After Week 1 these teams have done a complete 180 in opposite directions. With the Steelers going hot to cold, and the Pack heating up after getting embarrassed by Nola. Everyone is lookin’ for the easy money, and it doesn’t get any easier than Aaron Rodgers against a struggling defense and a non-existent offense. Close your eyes and bet the Steelers. Expect the defense to get some pressure and Ben to avoid playing the worst game of his life in back to back weeks.

The Pick: Steelers +7 (buy .5)

The Bookies Pick

We LOVE this one! It’s our…(drumroll)…Bookies Pick of the Week!

The Pick: RAMS ML

AHHHHHHAHHHHAHH UNDA!!! Giants/Saints - 43.5


(Current record: 11-9 YTD)

Got our ass kicked last week. That’s okay - it keeps ya honest, and the public do eat from time to time. We love the board this weekend and are ready to bounce back. Hope you got an appetite because we are serving a few extra picks.

(4-0) #5 Iowa @ (3-1) Maryland +3.5

Just a good ole fashion fishy reverse line here. The #5 team in the country opened as a 4 point favorite against an unranked opponent. As of now, 66% of the tickets are on Iowa, yet the line moved down in Maryland’s favor? This might be our favorite sharp play, and it’s on a Friday night! Crab cakes and covering against Iowa - that’s what Maryland does.

The Pick: Maryland +4 (buy .5)

(4-0) #13 BYU @ (3-1) Utah State +8.5

Another Friday night delight! Fading USU was our only winner last week. You just don’t find a 1-2 team favored by 9 points against an undefeated team on the road very often. Now, we are changing sides and backing Utah State. BYU is ranked and undefeated, yet the spread is less than when Boise visited? Not to mention, USU didn’t even keep it close. The final score was 27-3. This line seems to be at least 3 points off in our eyes. Hell, we even like the dog on the ML here. Why not!

The Pick: Utah St +8.5 — take the ML +285 if you’re feeling frisky

(4-0) #14 Michigan @ (1-2) Wisconsin -2.5

Did you laugh after seeing this line? Because we did. Now get ready to laugh even more, because we are going back to the well with Wisconsin again. Why? Because we just fucking love pain. We’ve backed the Badgers twice this year (vs PSU and ND) and got fucked both times. This is the make up game. Wisconsin somehow outgained ND in the 4th quarter, yet were outscored 31-3. That is fucking hilarious. You know what’s even funnier? Us taking Wisconsin ML… again.

The Pick: Wisconsin ML

(2-2) Minnesota @ (3-1) Purdue -2.5

This line is too short. Minnesota had average expectations this year. Played Ohio State fairly tough in week 1, but then lost their best player, and just got beat at home by Bowling Green as a double digit favorite. Nobody and I mean NOBODY wants anything to do with them…except us! Purdue deserves some more respect, and they aren’t getting it. If it looks like a trap and smells like a trap, then it’s probably a trap.

The Pick: Minnesota +3 (Buy 0.5)

(4-0) #11 Arkansas @ (4-0) #2 Georgia -18.5

This might be the most disrespectful line of the season. Not only is Arkansas covering by the most PPG out of any team in the country this year, but they are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games. I know Georgia is good, but they’re THIS good?! Keep in mind, Vegas just made Georgia a hysterically low 35 point favorite at Vanderbilt, which the Bulldogs covered in the 1Q (sorry about that pick lol). Read the line, not the teams. Vegas is telling you this is going to be an ass whooping, and we have no choice but to believe them.

The Pick: Georgia -17 (buy 1.5)

(3-0) #8 Cincinnati @ (4-0) #7 Notre Dame +2.5

All the talk this offseason was how ND plays 6 opponents coming off bye weeks. They passed their first test with ease last week vs Wisconsin. Now for round 2. Cincy had the week off, and before that looked a bit underwhelming against Indiana albeit winning by double digits. Ridder has gotten some Heisman talk, but his performance at Indy was the first real test of the season for him, and we wouldn’t say he passed. This one at ND is for all the marbles. The Bearcats schedule isn’t too difficult after this, so most predict they could run the table and be in talks for the 4th playoff spot. The CFB world would certainly rather see that instead of ND again, and so would we. Seems like Jack Coan is set to start for the Irish, and we’re not sure that’s a good thing.

The Pick: Cincinnati ML

(3-1) Syracuse @ (0-4) FSU -4.5

Saved the worst for last! You read that right - FSU is the favorite here. What are the oddsmakers thinking? We don’t know. But you’re going to want to kick us in the teeth, because guess what?


We. Love. PAIN!

The Pick: FSU -4 (buy .5)