Week 4 NFL & Week 5 College Football
Aim Small, Miss Small
The units continue to stack in the NFL with 3 straight winning weeks. Don’t get cocky - this weeks board is TOUGH.
We’re off to a good start already after the Bengals cashed last night. It’s not an official play on our record, but if you ever want action before the newsletter comes out then follow us on Twitter @thedegenweekly.
This weekend’s board is TIGHT. 12 of the 15 games are at a spread of 4 points or less. That’s what we call a ducks ass - water tight.
Going a bit lighter than usual in NFL, and forgoing the points for ML in a handful of instances. We’ve had success this year, and this is not the weekend to get greedy.
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 18-8-1 (+7.66 Units)
CFB: 18-11 (+4.87 Units)
NFL WEEK 4
Chargers @ Texans +5 Total 44.5 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
Hand up - I like the Chargers. I’ve got futures on over their win total, to win the AFC and Herbert to win the MVP. And yes, I know…it ain't looking so good after a 1-2 start and 38-10 loss at home against the fucking Jaguars. Should Herbert have played last weekend through a rib injury? I don’t think so, but who knows. Do I trust the Chargers training staff after puncturing Tyrod Taylors lung? Definitely not. I really don’t know what’s in the water at the Chargers facility, but this team just can not stay healthy…
With all that said, I think this is a get right spot for this team, and I’m buying the absolute fuck out of this bad news. If you look at the betting data, it shows that the Chargers are getting the majority of the bets, but I have to question just how lopsided this really is. I don’t think if you ask 10 people on the street that 7 of them will say they want to bet this injured team laying almost a touchdown on the road against the Texans who are 2-0-1 ATS. On paper, this isn’t contrarian, but out in the real world, I think it is.
And let me just say one more thing. The Texans start to the season has been cute. I tip my cap to them playing tough against the Colts and the Broncos, but we’re starting to find out that maybe those teams aren’t very good. Then Houston just lost to the Bears, who are one of the worst teams in the league. Don’t let Davis Mill’s long neck and solid play distract you from the fact that Lovie Smith is still their Head Coach.
The Pick: Chargers -5
Rams @ 49ers -2 Total 41.5 (Greg’s Best Bet)
Remember when everyone thought Jimmy G was going to be a huge improvement over Trey Lance? That was fun! The 49ers just embarrassed themselves in a borderline unwatchable Monday Night event. Now they find themselves in a rematch of the NFC Championship with two of the youngest and *cough* most attractive *cough* coaches in NFL history.
If you’re new to gambling then you’re probably asking yourself: “Are the 49ers really favored against the Super Bowl Champion?” or “Didn’t their Quarterback just throw a pick 6 while simultaneously taking a safety?”
Yes and yes. Despite taking in a mere 22% of the bets, San Fran is holding 39% of the handle and sitting strong as short favorites. Right now, it’s remarkable to think they would be favored over anyone with a winning record. Especially after watching them for 60 minutes that was more boring than an episode of 60 Minutes. But putting them over the Rams? Who just looked to get back on track controlling the Falcons and Cardinals? If it looks like a fish, and it smells like a fish, then by golly it’s a 49ers win and cover.
The Pick: Niners ML -120
Cardinals @ Panthers -1.5 Total 42.5
Sharpen your pencils boys and girls - this is the Pro’s vs Joe’s game of the week! Both these teams sit at 1-2, and it’s easy to poke holes in either opponent because there are plenty. Baker Mayfield isn’t the answer. Kliff Kingsbury is making a charge to be first coach fired. CMC has lost a step, and (SURPRISE) is banged up again. But the public narrative that’s staying strong is that Kyler is a dynamic playmaker, and he can carry Arizona against a bad Panthers team. Add to that his record as an underdog.
Before we get too carried away let’s take a peep at the betting data: 80% of the bets are on the Cardinals, but only 67% of the money. The Panthers opened at +1.5 in this one and currently sit at -1.5. When a team goes from dog to favorite, Degen goes from 6 to midnight. If not for a magical 4th quarter comeback against the Raiders, the Cardinals would be 0-3 without even a whiff of covering a spread. Despite fading them for the season, the Panthers are looking like a sneaky scrappy team. With some lingering winds from Hurricane Ida and a total moving down, this favors scrappy.
The Bet: Panthers ML -115
Browns @ Falcons +1.5 Total 47.5
One of our Twitter Space faithfuls @MidMajorMatt pointed out in the preseason that it would be wise to keep an eye on Falcons overs this year. Their offense is better than people think, and their defense is piss poor. Sure as shit - Falcons overs are 3-0. What’s more important is that no one is talking about it! Absolutely love being out in front of a trend before it goes mainstream, and thats we are hoping for here.
This line has been all over the place. Opening at 45 and soaring up to 49, it’s now settling in at 47.5. We certainly can’t say we love it coming back down, but the initial steam and the splits are what we’re backing. 37% of the bets, 62% of the handle.
Done and done.
The Pick: Over 47.5
Commanders @ Cowboys -3.5 Total 42.5
Welcome to yet another installment of agonizing every moment of a bet the previous week, and then immediately doubling down on the same team that just broke our hearts/wallet. The ring leader for this circus of pain is none other than Duck Dynasty reject Carson Wentz. We certainly didn’t plan on taking the Commanders every week this season, and yet going into Week 4 it’s reluctantly where we stand.
Let’s be clear - this has absolutely nothing, and I mean NOTHING to do with liking this Commanders team. It actually has to do with how disgusting this team has looked the last two weeks and the line being so short. HOW?! How is this line at -3.5? That’s saying this matchup would be a PK on a neutral field. What?! Even with Cooper Rush it’s short. The Cowboys certainly didn’t look impressive on Monday Night, but it was nothing like this…
Prayers up to the Vegas super computer, because it doesn’t compute in our brains, but we are putting some faith in our guys out west. Everyone is on the Cowboys, and this is the life we chose. Closed eyes, cold hearts, can’t lose.
The Pick: Commanders +3.5
Broncos @ Raiders -2.5 Total 45.5
“The Raiders could be 3-0”. We don’t believe it, but people are saying it. Every game has been within one possession and come down to the wire for both these teams. If you only listed to the narratives you would assume cringe God Russell Wilson was 0-3.
It’s not often that the last remaining winless team is favored going into a game, and you would think that has us leaning Raiders. Think again! No one believes the Raiders are going 0-4, and absolutely no one wants to bet the Broncos after they eek’d out wins in back to back games.
We are saying this incredibly *incredibly* softly… but the Broncos seemed to click a little bit at the end of the Monday Night’s game. You could sense the desperation, and it forced Russ to play like his old self, if only for a moment, if only for a drive. But it was there, and maybe it’s the start of this team getting on the right track…or maybe it was a fluke and Nathanial Hackett gets fired in 2 Weeks. Either way, giddy up Broncos!
The Pick: Broncos +2.5
Bookie Pick of the Week: The Queen is dead, but our Bookie’s alive and well - logging his first W of the year last week. Don’t let him get hot! To foggy London town we go for the Saints first cover of the season! Jameis is hurt & Mike Thomas is banged up. With Andy Dalton potentially starting, you know the bad news is being bought.
The Pick: Saints +3
AHHHHHHH-AHHHHHHHH-AHH UNDA! Titans @ Colts -3.5 Total 42.5 -
Sure it’s a mainstream narrative, but divisional game under’s are a very real trend. Tried and true. Nothing is a blanket play for us, but this is desperation mode at its finest. Both teams sit at 1-2. Claw your way back to .500 or slip into a 1-3 hole. Don’t be surprised to see a conservative approach and tight game.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 5
#18 Washington @ UCLA +3 Total 64.5
If you saw this line before the season started, you’d be saying the wrong team is favored. Washington had a 5.5 win total, and UCLA had the hype/expectations with QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson coming into his senior season. Yet here we are 5 weeks later, and much has changed. Indiana transfer Michael Penix Jr has been fantastic for the Huskies, and now has them ranked in the top 25 after the impressive 39-28 win against Michigan State. But this is Washingtons first road game, and we now have to ask ourself…how impressive is that win against MSU, because they’re starting to look like a below average team. The Huskies are taking in 77% of the bets, yet the line isn’t moving. This has us thinking the Bruins show up in their first big game of the season.
The Pick: UCLA +3
Navy @ Air Force -14 Total 38.5
This is an uncharacteristically bad Navy team. However, we are buying high here, as the Midshipmen did just beat ECU in OT for their first win of the season. Don’t love that, but you also don’t often see a spread this high between these two teams. Navy opened +16, and despite Air Force taking 69% of the bets, they’re only getting 50% of the money. Low bets/higher dollars on Navy and a 2 point line move in their favor has us intrigued.
The Pick: Navy +14
#7 Kentucky @ #14 Ole Miss -6.5 Total 53.5
Your average bettor will say this is “too many points”. In these situations, we always side with the house in thinking that they set this number for a reason. Does it always work out that way? Of course not, and we can point to Clemson and Tennessee as big favorites last week - they both won but couldn’t cover. But we are here for the long game, and Vegas is right more than they’re wrong. The “inferior” team laying a TD against the higher ranked opponent has everyone scratching their head, especially since Kentucky already treated bettors well with an outright win as a 6 point dog in Gainesville a few weeks ago. Kentucky is getting 72% of the bets, but the line moved from -6 to -6.5. With a Rebel yell…more, more, more!
The Pick: Ole Miss -6.5
#9 Oklahoma St @ #16 Baylor -2.5 Total 56.5
If you’ve been reading the Degenerate for a few weeks now, you should look at this line early in the week and already know who we are on. Why? Because it’s the “wrong team favored” narrative. We faded Baylor in a similar situation twice this year. It worked against BYU, but failed last week as they won outright in Iowa State. Now for the first time, we will be backing them. Ok State is out for revenge after losing to Baylor in the Big 12 Championship game last year, but this line and the movement tell us it ain’t happening. The Bears opened -1.5 and have been hit hard with sharp money, as they now sit at -2.5. Hopefully there’s no late buyback, because we also faded the Cowboys on their season win total.
The Pick: Baylor ML -130
#21 Wake Forest @ #22 FSU -7 Total 64.5
Wake burned us last weekend with the cover against Clemson, but now we get the unit back. The Deamon Deacons played their asses off in what you could say was their Super Bowl. Is Wake that good, or is Clemson just not that good? Doesn’t matter. What matters is FSU has been fucking rolling, and are getting total respect from the oddsmakers with this number. After beating Louisville on the road with their backup QB, we thought the Noles might have a letdown last week to follow it up against Boston College. They were 17 point favorites and won by 30. FSU is only getting 30% of bets, but 42% of the money. Low tickets/higher dollars you say? We’ll take that.
The Pick: FSU -7
#17 Texas A&M @ Miss St -4 Total 44.5
System play: unranked favorite against a ranked opponent. We love this even more as it’s against an Aggies team coming off a huge win against Arkansas. We backed the Aggies then, but are going against them here. The only thing that does concern us is that A&M isn’t quite the public dog we were hoping for. Despite the wins against Miami and Arkansas, the public seems to think Jimbos team just isn’t that good. Honestly…they probably aren’t. But we don’t need to entertain the football brain with this game. The tickets are split, but Mike Leach and Miss St opened -2.5 and are now up to -4, as they’re taking in 72% of the money. This could be a low scoring game with the total moving down from 45.5 to 44.5, so we’re going to be conservative and take the ML.
The Pick: Miss St ML -180
#2 Alabama @ #19 Arkansas +17.5 Total 60.5
You won’t find us betting on the 2nd best team in the country as a double digit favorite very often. Would you believe me if I told you Alabama is in a contrarian spot this weekend? It makes sense. For some reason, the public has been in love with Arkansas this season, and up until last weeks loss against Texas A&M, they’ve delivered for them, and they aren’t jumping off now with an opportunity to get them with this may points at home. Add to the fact that Alabama almost lost outright to Texas as a 21 point favorite on the road, and that’s why you’ll see Bama only getting 40% of the bets. Yet, the line opened -16.5 and has moved up a point. Hogs look tempting, but don’t fall for it.
The Pick: Alabama -17.5
Ohio @ Kent State -11.5 Total 65.5
We’re tailing our guy Drew Hoyler here. He’s always got great takes on the whackiest teams/games, and they often hit. He isn’t the sharpest bettor, but he finds himself on perhaps the sharpest side of the weekend. Kent State opened -7 and has been steamed up bigly to -11.5. Even though we are late to the party, we don’t care. Drew makes a great point in that nobody has had a more difficult start to the schedule than Kent St. Their first four weeks were @ Washington, @ Oklahoma, vs a nobody and then @ Georgia. Oh, and they covered against the Bulldogs! No team in the country is more excited to be playing a home game and deliver and ass kicking to let out its rage towards the schedule makers than Kent.
The Pick: Kent State -11.5
Rutgers @ #3 Ohio State -40.5 Total 58.5
Ohio State got off to a slow start, but in the past two games they’ve scored 77 and 52 points. CJ Stroud is now looking like the Heisman favorite we expected and bet on. With that said, the Buckeyes are in an interesting spot against Rutgers. They’re a 40.5 point favorite, so you know they’re expected to put up touchdowns, yet the total opened 60.5 and has now moved down 2 full points. What makes this stand out even more is that 84% of the bets are on the over. Of course, why wouldn’t they be? The public thinks that OSU can get there by themselves. But the smart money is saying otherwise, and that’s what we follow.
The Pick: UNDER 58.5
JOVANS BEST BET @jovan_deeb
UTEP @ Charlotte +3 Total 52.5
UTEP is coming off of likely the biggest win in their program history defeating Boise St by 17 last week. On the other hand, Charlotte has been one of the worst teams in FBS thus far in many different ways, but they are coming off of a game against South Carolina where they hung in the game for the first half. While they showed life for a bit of that game, UTEP only being a 3-point favorite in this game is very surprising. Especially when you look at UTEP’s offense, which can have success if they are able to run the ball and aren’t impressive at all if they can’t.
The lowest amount of rushing yards Charlotte has given up in their 5 games this season is 193. On paper, this should be a huge mismatch in that department but the one place they can keep up is with turnovers, which UTEP is prone to struggle with at times. Offensively, Charlotte is very capable of putting up points with their unit led by Chris Reynolds who has been a new spark to this team. I think UTEP is overvalued here and this has all the makings of a big letdown spot heading into a potentially weather-affected game in Charlotte.
The Pick: Charlotte +3
RECAP:
NFL
Chargers -5 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
Niners ML (-120 — Greg’s Best Bet)
Panthers ML (-115)
Browns/Falcons OVER 47.5
Commanders +3.5
Broncos +2.5
Titans/Colts UNDER 42.5
CFB
UCLA +3
Navy +14
Ole Miss -6.5
Baylor ML (-130)
FSU -7
Miss St ML (-180)
Alabama -17.5
Kent St -11.5
Rutgers/Ohio State UNDER 58.5
Charlotte +3 (Jovan’s Best Bet)