Rookie QB’s are back, and so is American Football in London! The Season is heading to mid-year form and we have some excellent match-ups in college and NFL coming up. Nothing to brag about last week - nailed the Rookie QB bounce back, but fell even in NFL at 5-5. Setting ourselves up for failure here but Weeks 5-8 are typically our sweet spot. Enough games under the belt to understand the teams who have it figured out, who are getting it, and who is losing all hope. We don’t necessarily love the NFL board this week, but we are absolutely ready to take some big swings.
The boys will be in Vegas this weekend, so keep an eye out for Brandon in row 35 with a “My wife shaved my back for this??” sign at the Raiders/Bears game.
NFL WEEK 5
(Current record: 22-15 YTD)
Raising Arizona - 49ers @ Cardinals -5.5 Total 50 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
The last undefeated team in the NFL is one that had an 8.5 win total to start the season. Tip of the cap to Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. They went into LA and did whatever they wanted against arguably one of the best defenses in the NFL. After starting the game with a 3 and out, the Cardinals scored touchdowns on 3 straight possessions. Firing on all cylinders, and Murray appears to be an MVP frontrunner. But we think it’s inevitable they hit a speed bump, and what better timing than to be against a rookie QB making his first start on the road?! Just when nobody will see it coming. The Cardinals opened this game -3.5 (pre-season game was PK) and it’s already been bet up by both the public and sharps. Typically we’d stay away from a game like this, but as you know, we’ve got a coaching crush on Kyle Shanahan. The Niners are 8-3 in their last 11 games as a road underdog. Is Jimmy G really hurt, or are they asking him to fake an injury so they can get Lance some playing time? One will never know. The Niners somehow lost to the Seahawks last weekend despite outgaining ‘em by over 200 yards of offense. Lance played the majority of the game, and certainly didn’t look like a guy who’s ready. But, you’ve got to take some shots on the unexpected. Do we think the Niners will win? Not necessarily, but they do play their division opponents tough when on the road. Get your shopping bag out because we are buying some points.
The Pick: Niners +7 (buy 1.5)
Throw some pizza money at Niners/Bears ML Parlay (8/1) if you’re feeling greedy
Fade the trendy dog - Bills @ Chiefs -3.5 Total 56.5 (Greg’s Best Bet)
How do you top Brady returning to his home field of 20 years after winning a championship with his new love affair? AFC Championship Remix!!! Well done, Sunday Night, Well done. The Chiefs “defense” has been an embarrassment thus far AVERAGING 30+ points to opponents. And now the big bad Buffalo Bills come to town. Beyond us how this game stays under, but we ain’t touching it. Despite outscoring opponents 118-21 over the last 3 games the Bills walk in as +3.5 dogs. Something tells use this might be the smallest number we see against the Chiefs for a while. A Sunday Night trendy dog is one we love to fade, and fade hard. You may say to yourself this is a “whoever has the ball last, wins” type game, but that’s too easy. We think Mahomes gets ‘em up early and keeps a safe distance. Never underestimate the backdoor cover. We are taking this one straight up.
The Pick: Chiefs ML
London’s Calling - Jets vs. Falcons -3.5 Total 46
There might not be a more sentimental “Nature is Healing” quote on twitter than applying it to an early morning London game with two of the most embarrassing teams in the NFL. Zach Wilson… Matt Ryan… London is a headline that has everone, regardless of the shape of your football, fast asleep. No-one traveled for 18-months and these assholes get to go to England?! Expect a wacky game - our gut says the Falcons have been around longer, and see this year as more a fading rather than rising star. Zach Wilson is coming off his first career win, and Americans and Europeans alike will be looking to back the young rookie as an underdog in a foreign land. But you gotta earn that headband young Zach. Matt Ryan is starting to count his days, and what a better opportunity to grow his brand (eww), than an international snooze-fest. This game is only worth waking up for if you live on eastern time, but we think everyone is getting a little excited after the big win in New York last week. The .5 (aka the hook) in the 3.5 is tempting if you’re a Jets backer, which gives us enough confidence that Vegas thinks Falcons stay in control of this one.
The Pick: Falcons -3 (buy 0.5)
We will die bleeding Purple - Lions @ Vikings -7 (Major) Total 49.9
There’s no need to get into the X’s and O’s when analyzing this spread (not that we do anyway). What’s most important when deciding what to bet is weighing the public perception vs the line Vegas sets. In our opinion, the Lions are quite possibly the trendiest consistently losing team in recent memory. If you ask anyone what they think of the Lions, the response will most likely be “they play tough”. That’s true, as they’ve taken on the personality of their head coach. You know it, I know it, and Vegas knows it. A team with the reputation of keeping things close is getting a touchdown against a 1-3 team? Seems like bait. Yes, the Vikings most likely are better than their 1-3 record. However, Kirk just came back down to earth last week against the Browns. Cleveland’s defense dominated. After allowing a touchdown on the opening drive, they shut the Vikings out and pressured Kirk on 19 of 20 drop backs. He also threw his first interception of the year. If you’re being a contrarian, you may think that teasing the Vikings down to a PK seems too easy, and for that reason choose to back Detroit. Fair enough! But look at it the other way. What if you tease the Lions, a team known for keeping it close, and get them at 14? That’s the way we look at it, and that’s why we are fading them. Sorry for being such Vikings slurpers, but we LOVE pain.
The Pick: Vikings -7
Short number for a big favorite - Packers @ Bengals +3.5 Total 51
It wouldn’t be a Degen write up without fading Aaron Rodgers. We typically regret it, but we love to do it. Stop reading now if you don’t have the stones. Saying good things about the Packers makes us want to vomit so let’s focus on the Bengals. They came out as flat as could be last Thursday against Jacksonville. A 4th down stop before halftime away from the game potentially being out of reach. We don’t like Zach Taylor, but we fucking LOVE Joe Burrow. We weren’t in that Bengals locker room, but can only imagine he gave a speech similar to Al Pacino’s in Any Given Sunday. The Bengals woke up and handled business. Our thoughts? Cincy got that out of their system on primetime, and are now ready for Green Bay. Still can’t name a player on the Bengals defense, but it doesn’t matter. I’m sure Rodgers will do just fine, but the hope here is that Burrow and the boys give the Packers fits. Fun fact: the underdog is 4-0 ATS the last 4 meetings between these teams. You know damn well the Packers have been the favorite all 4 times. Don’t try to buck the trend – embrace it. Let’s put some chili on our spaghetti and get down with the Natti!
The Pick: Bengals +4 (buy .5)
Just what the doctor ordered - Patriots @ Texans +9.5 Total 39.5 -
Our first take on this game was “The Patriots will have a let down after last weeks close loss in an emotional Brady return”. But there’s no time for “what-ifs” at 1-3. Belichick will have no problem stopping future 3rd stringer Davis Mills. It’s not often you see a 1-3 team nearly double digit favorites on the road. The Texans could be looking at back-to-back weeks being shutout. Our Spidey Senses think the Pats were holding back on running the offense through new acquisitions Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry till they got their shot at Brady (each had a TD last week). This one has “most boring game of the weekend” written all over it, and Vegas knows it, with a total of 39.5. Mac Jones quickly forgets he came up short last week and Davis Mills quickly remembers he has absolutely no business starting in the NFL. Pats, Pats, Pats.
The Pick: Patriots +9.5
Contrarian pick of the week - Titans @ Jaguars +4 Total 48.5 -
Fade the obvious - bet the team with Covid, bet the team with a star player injured, and of course, bet on the coach creating a media frenzy because he’s creeping out at random Ohio bars! We don’t doubt every player on the Jags was in tears laughing after his recent press conference, but we also don’t expect these guys to hold it against Urban if he can get them to win. Everyone in public town is running to take the Titans to bounce back, which creates value in the marketplace. If you thought Urban has looked dejected on the sideline before, just wait till Sunday! But this is what he lives for. As soon as the whistle blows, everyone (himself included) forgets what a scumbag this guy is. Urban is going to relish getting away from the media and burying himself into a football game. Everyone suspects last week’s loss was a minor hiccup for the Titans, but the problems on the defensive side of the ball suggest otherwise. Despite coming up short, T Law gained a bit of confidence last week in Cincinnati. Titans hanging at -4 is just too damn easy. Public bettors get hung out to dry in back to back weeks with Tennessee.
The Pick: Jag +4
The Bookies Pick
All aboard - it’s our…Bookies Pick of the Week!
The Pick: Seahawks +2.5
AHHHHHHAHHHHAHH UNDA!!! Browns @ Chargers U47
and a bonus over - Steelers Broncos O 39.5
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 6
(Current Record: 14-13)
(4-1) Houston vs (1-4) Tulane +6 Total 59.5
Plain and simple – this is not enough points for Houston. They just beat the absolute piss out of Tulsa, while Tulane got their ass kicked by ECU. The Cougars should be getting respect from the oddsmakers, yet they’re not here. If it looks like a fish and smells like a fish, it’s probably a fish.
The Pick: Tulane +6
(3-2) Stanford @ (4-1) #25 Arizona St -12 Total 51.5
This very similar to Arkansas/Georgia last week. Not the same, but similar. Stanford just took down #3 Oregon, and Oregon was only a 9 point favorite. Now AZ St is laying 12??? That’s just too much, and like Georgia, we think it’s for good reason.
The Pick: Arizona St -12
(5-0) #11 Michigan St @ (3-2) Rutgers +5 Total 50.5
Rutgers are who we though they were. After a 3-0 start, they’ve lost back to back games against Michigan and Ohio St. Sure, you can point to the fact that these are two of the top teams in the conference and give Rutgers a pass, but not after a 52-13 beatdown against the Buckeyes. That should’ve drank Rutgers milkshake, yet here they are - less than a touchdown favorite against unbeaten MSU. This is perhaps the biggest trap game of the weekend. Sparty is 5-0 ATS and getting 70% of the bets. Put your contrarian hat on.
The Pick: Rutgers +5
(5-0) #8 Michigan @ (3-3) Nebraska +3.5 Total Total 50.5
We like Michigan. In our CFB futures write ups, we said they were due and took a shot on them 25/1 to win the Big 10. Well here’s the problem…this spread ain’t good if you’re a Michigan fan. I bet you completely forgot about Nebraska after that week 1 loss in Illinois. Since then, they’re 4-0 ATS, with two close losses to #6 Oklahoma (by 7) and at #11 Michigan St (by 3 in OT). The public are loving Michigan and sleeping on the Huskers. Get smart.
The Pick: Nebraska +4 (buy .4)
(4-1) #13 ND @ (3-1) Virginia Tech +1 Total 47.5
College football fans can rejoice after that ND loss to Cincy last weekend. We now (hopefully) do not have to watch them get their ass kicked against Alabama or Georgia in the playoff. On they go through the gauntlet of opponents coming off a BYE week. Last time the Irish played in Blacksburg, it was Ian Books coming out party. This time, could it be Drew Pynes? There is some QB controversy brewing as Jack Coan just does not seem to be the guy. Meanwhile, Va Tech knocked off #10 UNC in their home opener, and have been good thus far despite a 6 point loss at WVU. 65% of the bets are on ND, yet the line has not moved. Sharps are hitting Va Tech and you should too.
The Pick: Va Tech +1
(3-2) Memphis @ (1-4) Tulsa -3.5 Total 61
This Memphis team is tough. Yes, they’ve lost 2 in a row, but by a combined 6 points AND they blew 14+ leads in both games. Tulsa…not tough. As we mentioned, just got their teeth kicked in at home against Houston. The wrong team is favored here, so we are not going to pretend we are smarter than Vegas. Back to the well.
The Pick: Tulsa ML
(5-0) UTSA @ (1-3) WKU -3.5 Total 69
Ummm…what? UTSA is off to their best start in school history, and are also 5-0 ATS. Great team, not a good team. Yet, here they are as an underdog against the 1-3 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers?! Ha, nice try Vegas, but not this time.
The Pick: WKU ML