Week 5 NFL & Week 6 College Football
Welcome to October - Gamblers Paradise
The books reported their first losing NFL Sunday last weekend. Thankfully, we made some audibles and survived while the squares ate. OMAHA!
This is why we emphasize following us on Twitter. Not only that, but you should be plugged into Twitter if you’re an avid sports bettor to see what actual people are betting on. This was a huge reason we decided to pivot OFF of the Panthers ML:
And while we saved ourselves a unit by aborting the “fake sharp” Panthers, we also gained a unit by adding the Chiefs ML in the Sunday Night game:
Now we must say, our fellow contrarians we’re not pleased with this late add, and we totally get it. The Bucs were sharp as a tac going from dog to favorite, but the problem for us was that it was all reactive due to Godwin and Jones being officially ACTIVE. Remember: when there’s good news that moves the line, we like to sell that.
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 21-11-2 (+7.31 Units)
CFB: 22-17 (+2.15 Units)
NFL WEEK 5
Cowboys @ Rams -5.5 Total 43 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
Dallas finally has it’s quarterback! Cooper Rush stays undefeated, and is now 3-0 ATS and SU since he’s taken over for injured Dak Prescott this season. He’s the first Cowboys QB to win his first 4 starts in Franchise history - WOW! Now, let’s be honest, the defense looks like it might be one of if not THE best in the NFL. So it’s no surprise that the Boys’ are a trendy dog this Sunday in LA.
The Rams are coming off a 24-9 loss where Kyle Shanahan just continues to be their daddy. After a primetime performance of not even scoring a touchdown, the defending Super Bowl Champions find themselves in a contrarian spot this weekend, as the public thinks this is too many points. This lined opened -4, and with the Rams only taking in 34% of the bets, they are seeing 41% of the money. It’s a small discrepancy of low tickets/higher dollars, but the line move up to 5.5 indicates the bets being made are significant. Vegas now feels the Rams are the liability.
I truly despise the Rams and their style of football. It irks me that this team won a Super Bowl, especially knowing the Bills would’ve destroyed them if it wasn’t for the Chiefs miracle comeback. I just do not enjoy watching Stafford force feed Cooper Kupp 20 times a game, completely neglecting every other player on the field, and Cam Akers getting 2.4 YPC. The total is trending down from 44 to 43.5, so reading that + the Rams move, this leads me to believe the Rams defense is the story here. I’d even consider getting cute with a Cowboys TT Under. Cooper is going to feel the Rush.
The Pick: Rams -5.5
Chargers @ Browns +2.5 Total 47.5 (Greg’s Best Bet)
Despite starting the season against Baker, Joe Flacco, Mitchy Mitch, and Mariota, the Browns sit at 2-2. Not great! Now they welcome up-and-coming super star Justin Herbert to town, and this line sits at +2.5. HOW? Even stranger is that this game opened at +3 and is moving in Cleveland’s direction. Who in their right mind would take Jacoby Brissett over Justin Herbert when the line is under a field goal? Outside of the quarterback position, the Browns have an insanely talented roster. If they can just get the ball to Chubb/Khunt and not let Jacoby drop back 30+ times, to pass they can find success. Last week Cleveland got a bit too cute against the pesky Falcons and it backfired. Humble pie. This week is an entirely different story: Chubb and Khunt. Thunder and lightning. Meat and Potatoes. Keep it simple and they come out on top.
The Browns are taking 31% of the bets, but 62% of the money, which should certainly catch your attention. The Chargers were the public play that cashed easy last week, and I don’t see it happening again. Hell, Herbert’s record as a starter is barely over .500. This one is sharp to the Browns for a reason, and I’m all over it.
The Pick: Browns +2.5
London: Giants vs. Packers -8 Total 40.5
Fun Fact: this is the Packers first time in London. The town of Green Bay always lobbied against it because the 8 home games a year basically supports their entire economy. Due to the 17-game season this year, they get 9 home games and one of them gets shipped to London. The more you know!
Ok - now let’s talk about what’s important. Green Bay has very quietly won 3 in a row. That number certainly looks tempting, as the Giants have shown a lot of fight, and Saquon Barkley looks like his former self. We think Vegas opened this line over a TD for a reason: to get bettors on the Giants. The Packers are coming off back-to-back ugly games against Tampa and New England. Putting them as over a TD favorite on a neutral site, which is what they essentially were last week against a Brian Hoyer led Patriots team, tells us they make quick work of the G-Men and are back home munching on cheese curds before you know it.
The Pick: Packers -8
Seahawks @ Saints -5.5 Total 46
What a story Geno Smith has been this year. After 9 years in the league, he’s finding his groove. He stepped up, beat out the miraculously untalented Drew Lock, and lead the Seahawks to a couple of impressive wins out the gate. Brava, Geno, Brava.
We’re not saying the comeback story ends here, we’re just saying it takes a detour. The Saints are returning from London after a tough loss to the Vikings. It sounds like Andy Dalton is going to get the start at QB, but it really doesn’t matter. Putting the Saints as this big of favorite after a 1-3 start and a transatlantic flight should tell you all you need to know. How many times will you find Andy Dalton in both a contrarian and sharp spot? We can’t resist.
The Pick: Saints -5.5
Dolphins @ Jets +3.5 Total 45.5
NFL unders have been red hot this year. Daytime, primetime, anytime.
We touched on it last week - this trend is very real, going beyond the 2022 season. In divisional games the under is typically the strong play, but this year it’s been absurd. So how in the world is this divisional game opening at a total of 45 and bet up to 45.5 with Zach Wilson and Teddy Bridgewater?
Less than 50% of the bets, but more that 50% of the handle. Say no more!
The Pick: OVER 45.5
Titans @ Commanders +2 Total 42.5
“The definition of insanity is doing something over and over again and expecting different results” - Albert Einstein
Ron Rivera has a gun to our head. Send help.
The Pick: Commanders +2
Bookie Pick of the Week: Sharp line + buying bad news + contrarian spot = our bookies favorite recipe. 32% of the bets on New England, but… *drumroll please*… 78% of the money. With 3rd stringer Bailey Zappe making his first NFL start against one of the best teams ATS? Vegas is either drunk, high, or laying the trap of the year for Lions bettors. Belichick pops Dan Campbells balloon.
The Pick: Patriots -3.5
AHHHHHHH-AHHHHHHHH-AHH UNDA! Eagles @ Cardinals Total 48.5
Betting contrarian is all about putting yourself in uncomfortable situations, but being a smart contrarian means there’s data behind it also backing the play. You know what’s uncomfortable? Betting an under in a game that features two former Oklahoma QB’s. The Eagles haven’t left the Northeast since Week 1, and the Cardinals haven’t scored a single point in the 1st quarter this year. The total opened 49.5 and despite the over getting hammered with bets, has now dropped a full point. TH-UNDER!
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 6
Missouri @ Florida -10.5 Total 53.5
This is a classic case of selling a team off their highest high. Missouri almost pulled off the biggest upset of the season after leading Georgia all game at home. Unfortunately the Dogs came back, but it was the first time anyone made Georgia sweat. Now they find themselves as double digit dogs against a Florida team that hasn’t looked good since Week 1?! This line is about 3 points higher than we would’ve made it. Gators opened 10, the tickets are split, yet 74% of the money is on UF moving the line in their favor. We don’t think this team should be favored by two scores against anyone, let alone another SEC opponent who just almost took down Georgia.
The Pick: Florida -10 (-120 — buy the .5)
Buffalo @ Bowling Green +2.5 Total 54.5
We are not one to fade trends, but we do when it becomes mainstream and the line moves the opposite way of what’s been hitting. Bowling Green is 5-0 to the over this season. In this matchup, the total opened 55, and naturally, EVERYONE is on the over. Check out these bet splits from VSIN.com:
Yet for some reason, the line has moved from 55 to 54.5. Hmmm…fishy, isn’t it?
The Pick: Under 54.5
Wisconsin @ Northwestern +10.5 Total 44.5
Shame on us for abandoning the system play last weekend. As you may or may not already know - we bet on a team after they fire their coach. Any team, any sport. This season, the system started 0-2 after Nebraska (Scott Frost) and Arizona St (Herm Edwards) failed to cover. So we decided to take a week off after Georgia Tech fired their HC, and of course, these fuckers win outright as a 20 point dog @ Pitt. SHAME. ON. US! You can’t pick your spots, we know this, and we failed to stay disciplined. But now, we’re back on the wagon. Paul Chryst is out at Wisconsin, and the Badgers are seeing some smart money. Opened 9.5 now up to 10.5 while taking in less than 50% of the bets. Getting the worst of the number, which we aren’t thrilled about, but that’s the name of the game when you send a newsletter out of Friday (insert shrug emoji).
The Pick: Wisconsin -10.5
Texas Tech @ #7 Oklahoma State -9.5 Total 69.5
We don’t suggest trying to time the market, but we do think there are certain spots you should hop off and hop on a team if there may be a trend developing. Texas Tech attracted the publics attention early in the season after they beat Houston in OT. Tech followed that up by not covering @ NC St as a 10 point dog. Then in Week 4 they beat Texas outright in OT, sucking the public right back in, only to break their hearts again by not covering last weekend @ Kansas State. They were +7.5 point dogs, fairly trendy ones too, and lost 37-28. Now is the perfect time to strike. Failing to cover the spread in the previous week, and now on the road against a top 10 opponent. Tech isn’t a public dog, and they are seeing a line move to their favor. Opened +10.5 and now down to +9.5. Let’s ride!
The Pick: Texas Tech +9.5
Auburn @ Georgia -29.5 Total 49.5
This is a very similar situation to what Alabama was in last weekend. We had one of the best teams in the country in a contrarian spot because the public felt like they were giving too many points. We backed Bama -17.5 and they covered, so you can bet your ass we are going to take the same approach here with Georgia. As we mentioned, the Dogs almost lost outright at Missouri last weekend. Meanwhile Auburn, who is fucking terrible, did just almost upset LSU as an 8.5 point dog at home. Is the average bettor writing off Georgia after that scare? Absolutely not, and I’m sure they all still know Auburn stinks, but this is a TON of points. Would you believe me if I told you that Georgia is only getting 27% of the bets this weekend? It’s just “too many” points in the publics eye. Go ahead and fade them at your own risk.
The Pick: Georgia -29.5
North Carolina @ Miami -3.5 Total 66.5
One of the strangest lines of the weekend in our opinion. Miami is about as down in the dumps as they can possibly be. After a 2-0 start playing nobodies, they put up 9 points in a loss to A&M, then came home and got embarrassed by Middle Tennessee State. Now they host a 4-1 UNC team and are laying more than a field goal? This would indicate that these teams are essentially a PK on a neutral. Personally, we’d give a slight edge to UNC, which would have this line -1.5/2 in our mind. No surprise that UNC is getting 71% of the bets. The public thinks the wrong team is favored. Trusting the oddsmakers here, but dodging the points.
The Pick: Miami ML -170
#16 BYU @ Notre Dame -3.5 Total 50.5
SYSTEM PLAY: unranked favorite vs a ranked opponent. It’s worked out well this season, and we even backed BYU earlier this year because of it when they hosted Baylor. The Irish got a little swagger back after putting up 40+ in their win @ UNC. This game is being played on a neutral field in Las Vegas, so this line shows the oddsmakers really respect ND here. We will lay the points, because the thought of Mormons spending a weekend in Las Vegas just sounds hilarious.
The Pick: Notre Dame -3.5
FSU @ #14 NC State -3 Total 50.5
After FSU got beat up by Wake last weekend, you’d think the fun was over for the Seminoles overachieving start to the season. But with this line…maybe the part is just getting started! Probably the fishiest number of the weekend with a ranked NC St team only laying a field goal at home. The Wolfpack opened -3.5, and getting all the bets, yet the line moved down towards FSU. We’ll be on that every time.
The Pick: FSU +3
JOVANS BEST BET
#18 TCU @ #17 Kansas +6.5 Total 68.5
While I think the respect Vegas is giving TCU here is warranted, I was surprised to see this line jump up so quickly. It’s scary to back a team off such a huge win like TCU had against Oklahoma last week but I’m willing to do it here. This game reminds me of the Texas Tech/Kansas State game we saw last week with two teams riding high and coming off emotional wins, yet one was shown significantly more respect with Kansas State being 7.5-point favorites and covering. Now TCU is seeing 6.5 on the road. Just like everyone else I love that Kansas is a good football team again, but the train should end this week.
Frankly they've been very fortunate to win some of their games, including Iowa State’s kicker last week handing them the game with 3 missed field goals. Duggan and the TCU offense will be far and beyond the best unit the Jayhawk defense has faced. The complement of their air raid attack along with Kendre Miller and the run game will just overpower the Kansas defense. Offensively, Kansas is facing a TCU defense who has the speed and physicality to slow them down a bit. TCU also runs the same 3-3-5 defensive scheme that Iowa State gave QB Jalon Daniels problems with, so expect more of the same this week. Kansas might be able to keep this one close early, but TCU should be too much for them in the end.
The Pick: TCU -6.5
RECAP:
NFL
Rams -5.5 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
Browns +2.5 (Greg’s Best Bet)
Packers -8
Saints -5.5
Dolphins/Jets OVER 45.5
Patriots -3.5
Eagles/Cardinals UNDER 48.5
CFB
Florida -10 (-120 — buy the .5)
Buffalo/Bowling Green UNDER 54.5
Wisconsin -10.5
Texas Tech +9.5
Georgia -29.5
Miami ML -170
Notre Dame -3.5
FSU +3
TCU -6.5 (Jovan’s Best Bet)