Playing the contrarian role certainly has days where you take your lumps, and boy did we just take ‘em Sunday. 3-6-1 last week, while we were in Vegas nonetheless. Yes - we’re banged up. Mentally. Physically. Financially. No excuses, play like a champion. We’re all hopped up on coconut water and advil to bring you this weeks Degen. The Week 6 board is one of the fishiest ones we’ve seen in all year. BYE weeks have arrived, and our hunch is that the chaos is coming with it.
NFL WEEK 6
(Current record: 25-21-1 YTD)
Goodnight Gruden - Raiders @ Broncos -3.5 Total 44
If you know us and have been following the Degen, you know that we love to bet on a team after their head coach is fired. But what about if the coach resigns? Hmmm…this is where it gets very interesting. It’s not quite the same, but it’s also not much different. The mood around the Raiders locker room has got to be a bit weird. Our assumption is that half the guys are happy Gruden is gone, while the other have are still shook and trying to accept what just happened. Like Carr said, he loved the man but hates the sin. Gruden got the Raiders out to an impressive 3-0 start, but as we all know, they were fugazzis. We just saw the pathetic Bears hold em to 9 points at home in the flesh. Guys heads weren’t in the game and the execution was piss poor. But throw all of that out the window. Chucky is gone, so what happens next? Respond respond respond! Like Nike’s ad campaign said after Tigers first incident: Winning Takes Care of Everything. The Raiders are going to shake the spirit of Al Davis and JUST WIN BABY.
The Pick: Raiders +3.5 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
Better days ahead in Indy - Texans @ Colts -10 Total 43 (Greg’s Best Bet)
The Colts have had an absolutely brutal schedule to start the season. They sit 1-4 coming off a Monday Night loss where they blew a 16 point lead. The Texans and Davis Mills looked like they took a major step forward last week. And yet… The Colts are favored by almost double digits? When is the last time a 1-4 team was favored by this much? Seriously, I tired to look it up, couldn’t find it. My hunch is that it’s been a minute. Despite the loss last week, Frank Reich has figured out the longer Carson Wentz holds the ball the worse he plays. Look for the QB whisperer to get this team moving in the right direction and start stringing together some wins after an unfortunate start.
The Pick: Colts -9.5 — buy 0.5 (Greg’s best bet)
A 5-0 streak comes to an end - Cowboys @ Patriots +3.5 Total 51.5
Dallas is the last remaining team undefeated against the spread. Don’t you think this spread is a bid modest? That’s right, the same New England who miraculously in the past two weeks simultaneously made Tom Brady look human and Davis Mills look like a super star. So what Pats team will we get this weekend? A big question is if they will get their O-line back (4 of 5 starters were out last week), and we’ll wait till closer to kickoff to punch this one in, but our gut is saying Vegas knows something. The Cowboys are too tempting here, so we want to be on the other side of it.
The Pick: Patriots +3.5
The Heart of a Lion - Bengals @ Lions +3.5 Total 47.5
Is this the weekend the Lions get their first W, or is it too obvious the Lions first win will be against the Bengals? We are definitely overthinking this one, but can’t help ourselves. The Bengals just played their Super Bowl, coming up short in a Rochambeau style loss at home vs the Packers. The Lions see that, and raise you a last second field goal allowing the Vikings to get in range with 25 seconds left and no timeouts. Both teams are deflated, but there’s one big difference – Detroit knows nothing other than deflation. This team has been getting up for games pretty much every week following a miserable loss. This is their new normal. We’re all in on Detroit coming out for blood here. Dan Campbell has got to know this is their best chance to taste victory, because their next four games are @ Rams, vs Eagles, @ Steelers and @ Browns. YIKES! The time is now Detroit. Joe Burrow already has one bad knee cap, let’s see if Dan Campbell’s defense rips off the other one.
The Pick: Lions +4 (buy .5)
A battle of MVP Candidates - Chargers @ Ravens -3 Total 52
What a game for both of these QBs last week. Herbert lead the Chargers to a victory in a shootout over the Browns, and Lamar lead a 16 point comeback putting himself as the league leader in total yardage (more than 18 TEAMS). So what will they do for an encore? According to the public, the Chargers are an absolute lock to cover, as currently more than 90% of bets have come in on the Bolts. But that’s just not how our brain works. It’s too easy to buy the Chargers here to an easy +3.5 and start counting your money.
The Pick: Ravens ML -155
The Bookies Pick
Our bookie is so damn due, and yes, we like this one! It’s our…(drumroll)…Bookies Pick of the Week!
The Pick: Browns ML
AHHHHHHAHHHHAHH UNDA!!! and Sunday Night! Seahawks @ Steelers U 42.5
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 6
(Current Record: 17-17)
(3-2) #25 Clemson @ (3-3) Syracuse +14 Total 45
Yes Cuse just lost back to back games against Wake Forest and FSU, but both were by a field goal. Everyone has written off this years Clemson team. Now they are DOUBLE DIGIT favorites on the road?! Nah, that’s too many points. 64% of the tickets are on the Orange, yet the line hasn’t moved.
The Pick: Clemson -14
(1-4) California @ (4-1) #10 Oregon -14 Total 54
Okay so Cal just scored 6 points at home in a loss to Wazzou, and Oregon is coming off a BYE after their loss at Stanford. So of course everyone is going to expect bounce back performance from Oregon, right? This line seems to be about a touchdown short. We never pretend we know more than Vegas, and aren’t going to start now.
The Pick: Cal +14
(6-0) #9 Michigan St @ (2-3) Indiana +4.5 Total 48.5
Not only is this a reverse line, but there’s a chance Indiana’s starting QB (Penix) might be out. What a tasty public treat MSU is looking like! Not for us.
The Pick: Indiana +4.5
(5-0) #12 Ok State @ (4-2) Texas -5 Total 60.5
Really not sure if this is sharp or public. Could totally be neither, but -5 seems to be a bit too much to not pop up on our radar for a Texas team that just had one of the most devastating losses in recent memory. Oklahoma St ML might be the “fake sharp” play of the weekend.
The Pick: Texas -5
(4-2) #18 Texas A&M @ (3-3) Missouri +9 Total 59
The mother of all letdown spots. Is it too obvious though? Survey says: NAH! Missouri is 0-6 ATS this year. You read that right. O for fucking 6 against the spread. I don’t think anyone is going to get excited about backing them against the team that just slayed the Alabama dragon.
The Pick: Missouri +9
(3-2) Purdue @ (6-0) #2 Iowa -11.5 Total 43
Purdue is sharper than a tack. Iowa opened -12.5, getting 68% of the bets, and the line moved down a point. The Boiler Makers just lost to Minnesota and fought life and death with Illinois. Can’t think of any reason someone would want to be holding a Purdue ticket, which is exactly why we want one.
The Pick: Purdue +11.5
(5-1) #22 Arizona St @ (3-2) Utah PK Total 50.5
A ranked Sun Devils team who just pummeled Stanford is opened a PK on the road against a team who has been very disappointing. The Utes were our preseason favorite to win the Pac-12, but they have gotten off to a VERY slow start. We think they are starting to figure it out after back to back wins, and so does Vegas given the respect they’re showing with this spread.
The Pick: Utah PK