Way to go Degen! Tout yourselves as about to get hot in Week 5, and follow it up with back to back sub .500 performances. Idiots! This weekend is looking like murder-ball, as there are only a handful of games with spreads under a field goal, and nearly half the spreads at a touchdown or more. Can’t say we love it, but one must bob and weave. Find our value spots and take some jabs. We are ready to either shake off the rust or go down swinging!
NFL WEEK 7
(Current record: 28-25-1 YTD)
The magic of a new coach wears off - Eagles @ Raiders -3 Total 49.5
Despite the self-sacrifice of Jon Gruden, the Raiders came out pissed off and mopped the floor with the Broncos in Denver. You should know by now we LOVE to bet on a team after a coach gets fired, and we gladly expanded our system to resigning coaches. Derek Carr had a day and it finally looks like we might get to see some Henry Ruggs fireworks in Vegas. So whats up for an encore? The Eagles are coming into town off some rest after playing the Bucs close last Thursday night. Philly has two wins on the year, and this is a line in the sand game. After being in Vegas for the Bears game, our gut says this is going to be more of a home game for the Eagles than the Raiders. Now to be clear - we did not like the Eagles coming into this year, and it’s not like we expect them to turn things around and go on a run…but this is a critical point in the season and a must win for a new head coach and a young quarterback. The Raiders have played poorly against bad teams at home, and are on a 1-5 ATS run in their last 6 as a home favorite. We aren’t expecting Vegas to get any sort of momentum going after that nice win in Denver.
The Pick: Eagles +3.5 — buy .5 (Greg’s Best Bet)
Wilson bucks the trend - Jets @ Patriots -7 Total 42.5
I know what you’re thinking, because it’s what everyone’s thinking. Belicheck owns rookie QB’s. Right, and he’s already spooked the hell out of Zach Wilson once this year. Zach threw 4 INTs in week 2 and the Pats won 25-6. Has Wilson improved since then? Not really. The Jets are coming off a BYE after losing to the Falcons in London. Call us crazy, but this is a very bad spot for the Pats. Not saying Robert Saleh is any sort of genius, but an extra week to prepare for a defensive minded coach against a very conservative offense like the Patriots has us a little excited to take the points here. Mac looks like the best rookie QB thus far (yuck), and many will say the Pats could’ve beaten both the Bucs and Cowboys. They’ve gotten the betting public’s respect, which means it’s time to sell high. These bets are tough to stomach, but remember the last time we picked both the Giants and Jets in the same week, they both won outright. Let’s see if we can time our New Jersey teams right again! (Spoiler alert: we like the Giants too)
The Pick: Jets +7 (Brandons Best Bet)
Send ‘em back to London - Falcons @ Dolphins +2.5 Total 47.5
This match-up is gross! Both teams last games were across the pond, so let’s welcome them back to the states by making a wager on who’s slightly less terrible, shall we?! We do not know what the hell happened to the Dolphins last weekend. Seemed like they had every opportunity to beat the Jags but gave it away. We like Flores, but that may have been his worst coaching performance to date. Tua didn’t do much to impress in his first game back. With that said, we still believe in him. Not to shock the world. Not to win MVP (we might have taken it). Hell, not even to do anything remarkable. But to cover against the Falcons??? Yes, please. There are two trends to follow here: the Falcons are not good as road favorites, and the Dolphins are good as home underdogs. Miami is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 as a home dog. Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as a road favorite. It’s a short number, so get your shopping bag out. Not sure who’s winning, but they aren’t winning by more than 4.
The Pick: Dolphins +4 (buy 1.5)
Awaken the sleeping giant - Chiefs @ Titans +5.5 Total 57.5
Well would you look at that – the Chiefs covered a spread! Could this be the start of an ATS streak? We think so. It was an ugly 1H in Washington, but KC woke up and won the 2H 21-0. Yes, you read that right. The Chiefs defense actually shut out a team for an entire half of football. Thank you Taylor Heinicke! Both KC and the Titans defenses rank in the bottom 10 of the NFL in Yards AND Points allowed per game (better believe EVERYONE is on this over). Betting the NFL is all about timing, and we are here to ride the wave of the Chiefs after that embarrassing loss to Buffalo. Despite their record and more than their fair share of turnovers, the Chiefs offense has been great this year. Amazing when you consider they’ve played one of the toughest slates of opposing defenses thus far. Enter the porous Titans D. Fuel meet fire. Hot take: Derrick Henry will rush for under 100 yards in this game. He’s the man, no doubt, but we like an unexpected off-game against a bad defense. Again, it’s just timing. The Titans are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games on Sunday following a Monday night game. That win against the Bills was massive for Tennessee. How will they follow it up? With a stinker.
The Pick: Chiefs -5.5
A Field day in Tampa - Bears @ Buccaneers -12.5 Total 47
There are three games with double digit spreads on the card this weekend. We are done fading the Cardinals (for now). The Jared Goff revenge game doesn’t really get us going. But boy ohh boy are the Bears a nice spot here. Maybe you forgot, but Nick Foles and the Bears somehow miraculously beat Tampa last year. You know who didn’t forget? Tom Brady. The Bears defense is getting better. Khalil Mack and their pass rush should make Tom just uncomfortable enough to keep it (relatively) close. The Bucs secondary has been banged up, but should get a couple guys back for this one. We still expect a few miscues that bode well for the Bears lackluster offense that result in a deep ball or two (don’ t fail me now Darnell Mooney). Fields needs to run more, as he did against Green Bay. He had 6 rushes for 43 yards - his highest of the season. If he does, things should open up and keep the Bears hanging around just enough to cover.
The Pick: Bears +12.5
Contrarian play of the week - Panthers @ Giants +3 Total 43
After a hot start, the Panthers have been ice cold, losing their 3rd straight in OT vs. the Vikes last week. The defense has been a different story since losing first rounder Jaycee Horn. Despite their recent cold streak, putting any decent team within a field goal of the reeling Giants seems like financial suicide from Vegas. Danny Dimes is looking like 2019 Jameis Winston without the touchdowns or the yards. Saq is broken. Jason Garrett is one step closer to unemployment. Does Darnold’s return to Metlife awaken the ghosts of his past? The Jets got a home win in New Jersey, and it’s time for the Giants to get theirs.
The Pick: Giants +3
The Bookies Pick
The Bookie has been on a cold streak, and this one is going to make you cringe. It’s our bookies pick of the week! Run it back with…
The Pick: Browns ML
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 7
Current record YTD: 20-21
(3-3) Kansas St @ (5-2) Texas Tech -1 total 60.5
Texas Tech is so much worse than it’s 5-2 record, and Kansas St is so much better. On the surface, the public will gobble up a 5-2 team at home only laying 1 point. Don’t fall for that. K St started 3-0, but has lost 3 in a row. 73% of the tickets are on Tech, yet the line ain’t moving. Sharps are hitting State. Let’s join em.
The Pick: Kansas St +1
(3-3) Wisconsin @ (4-2) #25 Purdue +3 Total 40
Ugh here we go again. So much pain betting Wisconsin this year. We are 0-3, and of course these fucks have won each time we didn’t back them. Now is their time to make it up to us. Loved to back Purdue last week as they took down #2 Iowa, but jumping off the Boilermaker ship quickly. The Badgers are bad and should not be favored. Read the lines, not the teams.
The Pick: Wisconsin ML
(5-1) #10 Oregon @ (5-2) UCLA -2 Total 60.5
Oregon is 5-1 SU, but 1-5 ATS. That 1 cover was an outright win against Ohio State, btw. Bettors gotta be licking their chops thinking they can get a top 10 team with points against an unranked team. We think Oregon is a bit of a fugazzi. They had a BYE week after the Stanford loss, and with an extra week to prepare for 1-5 Cal, they still barely won at home. The tickets are split, yet the line moved from -1 to -2 for the Bruins. UCLA is the better team, you just don’t know it yet.
The Pick: UCLA ML
(6-0) #7 Ok St @ (4-2) Iowa St -7 Total 47
The Cyclones are starting to figure it out. It’s time for them to avenge that pitiful performance at home against Iowa in week 2. This has to be the most head scratching spread of the weekend. Unranked team favored by a full touchdown against a top 10 team. The Cowboys were about to go down 21-3 to Texas last weekend before they pulled of a 90 yard pick 6. This team has grit, and we hate to bet against grit, but this one is right up our alley.
The Pick: Iowa St -7
(5-1) #18 NC St @ (2-4) Miami +3 Total 51.5
And now I present to you the most lopsided game of the weekend! NC State is feeling themselves after manhandling Boston College. That might not sound like an appealing matchup, but both teams were 4-1. The Wolfpack were a field goal favorite on the road and beat the Eagles easily 33-7. NC St is taking in 78% of the tickets, but the line isn’t moving much. After opening -2.5 it’s now up to -3. There is really not much to like with Miami here. The Canes are banged up, and down to their third string QB. All we can give Miami credit for in their back to back losses is keeping it close. They missed a chip shot to beat Virginia, and clawed back from a 28-10 deficit at UNC to eventually lose by 3. Perhaps Vegas recognizes that the Canes have nothing else to play for other than to be spoiler.
The Pick: Miami +3