Another week for the public. 3rd in a row. Not great! Here’s an insane take away - “According to the Nevada Gaming Control Records: sports books have suffered a net loss on football for four weeks in a row for the first time since November 2011” (@chrisvernonshow). So the question for week 8 is… does this trend continue, or does the public get crushed this weekend? Time will tell… we’ll still be staying true to our contrarian roots (but maybe take a public game or two to be safe).
NFL WEEK 8
(Current record: 31-29-1 YTD)
Bet on Covid - Packers @ Cardinals -6.5 Total 50.5
Take a moment to appreciate this spread ladies and gentlemen. Not many times you’ll see Aaron Rogers as a touchdown underdog. The Packers got hit hard with Covid and the books have adjusted. This line opened Arizona -3.5. As you’d expect, the Packers were a VERY trendy dog. Didn’t last long. Davantae Adams got the Rona, and apparently it’s worth 2.5 points to the spread. As a receiver, that’s insane. Adam Lazard is also out, and so are a few coaches. Packers went from trendy dog to contrarian really quick. We were conflicted at first, but our minds have been made up. You don’t often see us backing the Pack, but today is the day! Remember the system we’ve adopted since the pandemic started and sports returned: always bet ON Covid. Why? Because it’s betting against the narrative. “Who is Rodgers throwing to?”. Question everyone is asking. Don’t be silly – he’ll be fine. The Packers have played 6 games without Adams and are 6-0 ATS in those games. We are not interested in bucking the trend here.
The Pick: Packers +7.5 (buy 1 point)
The Public Play of the week - Jaguars @ Seahawks -3.5 Total 43.5
A simple case of a must win game here for the Seahawks. Seattle has a Bye week on deck and should get the Russ Bus back when they return to action. Nothing about backup QB Geno Smith gives us an ounce of hope, except for the fact that somehow he’s 7-0 ATS in his last 7 starts. The defense has been forced to play better and we think the offense finds a way to string enough plays together. Jags are coming in off a Bye, which typically might be a good thing. But we can guarantee no one on the planet wanted a week at home with their families less than Urban Meyer.
The Pick: Seahawks -3 — buy .5 (Greg’s Best Bet)
Contrarian play of the week - Cowboys @ Vikings +2.5 Total 55
Here it is – the stinkiest line of the week! Vegas usually gives ~3 points for homefield advantage. So what they’re telling you is that on a neutral field, the Cowboys and Vikings are an even match. Really? Not sure we’re buying that. We’d make the Cowboys a short neutral favorite, which means this line should be -4/5. Now, if you want to take the safe route and just assume Vegas is off here and the Cowboys win, don’t blame you one bit. It’s been a whacky couple of weeks and the “too good to be true” bets are cashing. But…all good things come to an end. The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS. As a bettor, you have to tip your cap to what once was America’s team. The famous poet Ernest Hemingway once said “good teams win, great teams cover”. So yea…through 7 weeks, the Cowboys are a great team. Some would say the greatest of all teams. See what we’re doing? Making it even more apparent as to why there’s no fucking way they should only open as a 1 point favorite in Minnesota. The Vikings got a much needed W right before their BYE week. Kirk is dealing and the offense looks good. If the public is going to fall this weekend, you have to expect them to chase the Cowboys Sunday Night. Don’t be surprised to see this one keep ticking in the direction. On paper we expect a shootout and the total set by Vegas reaffirms it. This should be a fun one!
The Pick: Vikings +3 — buy .5 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
Enough juice left in the tank - Steelers @ Browns +3.5 Total 42.5
Believe us, there aren’t many things more depressing than watching Big Ben deteriorate in real time. The Steelers 11-0 run last year seems like an eternity ago, and now we are left with a team whose ceiling is making the “In the Hunt” graphic come December. The Browns are coming off a Thursday Night win over the Broncos despite having every skill position player injured. Early reports are that Baker will be back, and if this is the case we are jumping on board with the Black and Yellow. Despite an all too likely disappointing record this year, Tomlin can still rally the troops and get a handful of impressive wins/performances. Expect to see it this Sunday as the Steelers come in off a BYE looking for revenge from last years Wildcard round massacre.
The Pick: Steelers +3.5 - (If BAKER starts) /// Browns -3.5 (if KEENUM starts)
A battle for mediocrity - Panthers @ Falcons - 3 Total 46
The Atlanta Falcons are…good? Consider us fans of Head Coach Arthur Smith, but this team still has a ways to go till we’re predicting a turn around. It’s going to take more than the emergence of Kyle Pitts in Atlanta for us to jump on them. Absolutely nothing to be proud of for the Panthers after a beat-down in the Meadowlands last Sunday. Four losses in a row. Benched the starting QB. Sam Darnold sucks again! It’s all just too easy to predict until you remember the Falcons find a rock bottom whenever expectations start to rise.
The Pick: Panthers +3
Bengals @ Jets +10.5 Total 42
Keeping this short and sweet. The Bengals are coming into this one on their biggest high note in well over a decade. Stomping out division rival and king dong Lamar Jackson in Baltimore. The Jets continue to hit new lows. Who the fuck is Mike White?? Vegas could make this line Cincinnati -20 and the public would still be all over the Bengals. This line opened 8.5 and ALL the money is hitting Cinci. We’ll be on the books side for this one.
The Pick: Jets +10.5
Chop wood, carry water - Bucs @ Saints +6 Total 50
So you may have heard by now that the public have been absolutely crushing it this month. Good for them. As contrarian bettors, we’ve been getting our asses kicked, as we’re sure can tell. That does not mean we change course. Head down, and stick to the plan. Buckle up – because were all in on the Jameis revenge game! Not really though. We are only interested because of this opening line. The Bucs opened as a 3.5 point favorite, and have been getting all of the money. Sharps and public are pounding Tompa Bay as they are fresh off of a 38-3 ass whooping of the Bears. The Saints swept the Bucs last year in the regular season, and we are sure Tom hasn’t forgotten that. One thing that caught our eye these past few weeks is we’ve seen a lot of favorites win and cover. What we are due for is some favorites winning but not covering. This one fits that mold. We think the Bucs get it done, but we love getting 6 here with the Saints. At this number, we’d expect some buyback, so hop on it now. We’d be shocked to see it get as high as 7. If you need a trend to put you over the hump, how about this: The Bucs are 0-4 ATS their last 4 games following a win by 14+ points. Okay, you want one more? The Bucs are 0-4 ATS their last 4 games as a road favorites. Oh my god fine you want ONE MORE?! The Saints are 7-2 ATS their last 9 home games as an underdog. Okay that’s enough – let’s get that Nolia clap going!
The pick: Saints +6
The Bookies Pick
Our Bookie got back on track last week and is ready to put a streak together. Oh, and we LOVE this one. It’s our…drumroll…Bookies Pick of the Week!
The Pick: Colts -1
AHHHHHHAHHHHAHH UNDA!!! Monday Night! Giants @ Seahawks U 52
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 9
Current Record YTD: 23-23
(4-3) Texas @ (6-1) #18 Baylor -2.5 Total 61.5
Well this should be a fun matchup! At first glance, our thoughts are this line is a little low. A ranked team at home only giving a field goal seems cheap and too easy. But like we said – sometimes it is. You may think this is a trap, but we think it’s the ole trap trap! Siding with the public on this one.
The Pick: Baylor ML
(6-1) #9 Iowa @ 4-3 Wisconsin -3 Total 37
Love us or hate us, you have to appreciate our commitment to some of these miserable teams we continuously bet on. Wisconsin came through for us last week. FINALLY! After starting 0-3 in the Degen, we finally got it right. And now…the streak begins. It was weird Wisconsin was favored last week in Purdue, and it’s weird they’re favored at home against top 10 Iowa now. The running game can’t be stopped and that defense is starting to really click. Let’s keep it going!
The Pick: Wisconsin ML
(7-0) #1 Georgia vs (4-3) Florida +14 Total 51
Have to admit we were not riding the Georgia bandwagon preseason as most were. After 7 games, we get it. This defense is fucking good. Reminds you of the good ole SEC days when defenses ruled and offenses had trouble scoring 14 points. This line looks a little short to us. We thought we’d be a little public wanting to back the double digit dog, but after digging a bit deeper, turns out 63% of the tickets are on Georiga. And yet, the line has not moved. Smart money backing the Gata and so will we.
The Pick: Florida +14
(6-1) #12 Kentucky @ (4-3) Miss St -1.5 Total 47
Whoa! Unranked team favored against a ranked team?! We saw this last week with Iowa St -7 vs Ok St. They won, but didn’t cover. This is much easier to hop on given the short number. Kentucky is 6-1 ATS, so of course they’ve got bettors attention, as they’re taking 71% of the tickets. We don’t think Vegas would be so careless making the “wrong team” the favorite here.
The Pick: Miss St ML
(4-3) Purdue @ (3-5) Nebraska -7.5 Total 52
Poor Purdue. It was fun while it lasted! They blew their load in Iowa like a cross country truck driver at Bennigan’s. That defense took an absolute beating from those Wisconsin RB’s last week. The Badgers ran the ball 51 (!!!) times. The boiler makers are limping into Lincoln here.
The Pick: Nebraska -7.5