Inhale. Pause. Exhale. Can’t explain what a breath of fresh air going 7-2 after a 3 week skid was. Didn’t want it, NEEDED it! The dogs have been BARKING. NFL underdogs went 11-4 ATS in Week 8 and currently sit at 69-53 (57%) ATS this season. Admittedly, we like a lot of dogs this weekend, but we are are pumping the brakes just a bit and not taking as many as we’d like. However, up until the Jets upset over the Bengals, a dog of more than a touchdown was yet to win outright yet this year. Our gut and this weekends lines lead us to believe that it’s not quite time to jump off the dog trend.
NFL WEEK 9
Current Record: 38-31-1 YTD
The Browns is the Browns - Browns @ Bengals -2.5 Total 47
Baker is a Bum! OBJ’s daddy said it loud and proud. This team was a one year wonder and they’re about to come crashing back down. The talented defense has underperformed, the offense has been an insult to vanilla pudding, everyone is hurt. Is anything going right for a team that two months ago was a sneaky underdog play to make some real noise in the AFC? Is the Kevin Stefanski era over before it began? Not yet. Baker may not be who we thought he was, but this son of a bitch is tough, and he’s not dead yet. Their backs are getting closer to against the wall - last place in the division, divisional game on deck, in-state rivalry, seemingly in complete disarray. The Bengals return home after a three game road trip and quite frankly we are a bit perplexed by their performance to date. Certainly have shown that they can play up to the best, but as Mike White would attest they can play down to anyone. Simply put… too much turmoil in Cleveland not to see some value for the Degenerate.
The Pick: Browns +3 (buy 0.5) (Greg’s Best Bet)
Let the division melee begin - Cardinals @ Niners +1 Total 46
Did Jimmy G get his groove back? Short answer: no. Let’s not overreact to that win against the Bears. Nagy had Covid which probably meant that was best the Bears will play all season. The Niners still have plenty of issues, but we do see some progress and swagger emerging. On the other hand, the Cardinals are coming off their first taste of defeat. There’s no recency bias with the betting public. They’d take Kyler over Jimmy all day, as the Cards are getting 73% of the bets. But what’s that we see off in the distance? A bird, a plane, a reverse line??!! Sound the alarm baby - sharp money is hitting hard on the Niners, and it hit early. This line opened Arizona -3.5 and despite taking the majority of bets, it continues to move in favor of San Fran. For whatever reason when the 2021 season is said and done, would you really be shocked if the Niners and Cardinals split their regular season wins? Hell, we wouldn’t even be shocked if the Cards finished their division at 3-3. And apparently, neither would the sharps. Sleep now in your fire.
The Pick: Niners +1 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
It’s a trap! - Patriots @ Panthers +3.5 Total 41
You have to be fucking kidding me. Didn’t even blink and the Patriots are already back. Belichick doing Belichick things. A week after dropping 54 (!) points on the Jets after their BYE week, he goes to LA and mops the floor with the Chargers after their BYE week. He’s now 24-4 SU against first year head coaches. So what’s on deck next for the goat? A trip to Carolina to face a QB whose career he almost/probably ruined. Sam was seeing ghosts the last time these two met, and after a nice start, he’s already back to being the Sam Darnold we know and did not love. Blaming Gase is one thing, but Rhule and Joe Brady? Ehhhh… this guy might just stink. But! Oh, you knew there was a but. It’s not that easy friends. You know what we think? We think the Pats are killers in the role of the underdog. Which means as a favorite, we aren’t so quick to back em. Belichick is 1-4 ATS in his last 5 as a road favorite, and 3-8 in his last 11 as a favorite in general. You’re probably wondering if CMC is playing. Doesn’t matter! Buy yourself half a point and trust in Darnold (gulp).
The Pick: Panthers +4 (buy .5)
Falcons +5.5 @ Saints Total 42
Poor Jaboo. Just when it was looking like he might have a real future in Nola, a former teammate snaps his knee. But no looking back for the Saints - all aboard the Siemian Express (gross). Imagine beating the defending Super Bowl Champs with your 3rd string option? We are certainly not Sean Payton guys, but give credit where it is due: the guys is a regular season Jesus. So Trevor, what do you have for an encore? Think you’re able to cover a 6 points spread in the role of favorite? Because we sure as shit don’t. There is certainly nothing to be excited about from this Falcons squad. Matty Ice’s days are numbered and this might be his last chance for a win in the Super Dome. You can guarantee the Saints had last weeks matchup vs. Tampa circled on their calendars, and you know they had no clue who they were playing after it. Look for the Falcons to pull out all the stops and cover after the Saints just won a big one.
The Pick: Falcons +6
More fight than meets the eye - Titans +7.5 @ Rams Total 53.5
Depressing week of injuries and more bad new here with the Titans losing the engine that drives their offense in Derrick Henry. But what’s that crawling out of the grave? A 15 year vet? That’s an eternity in any industry, but for a modern running back in the NFL? It is truly unfathomable. Literally, Adrian Peterson was rushing for 1,000 yard seasons since Steve Jobs introduced the the iPhone. Does this mean the Titans problems are softened? Of course not. Everything this team did ran through King Henry, but we don’t see it crashing down just yet. The Rams have been a buzzsaw through opponents, and this Titans D offers no sign of hope to stop them. If this wasn’t a primetime affair we wouldn’t be leaning in their favor. The Titans have had a hell of a stretch beating the Bills, Chiefs and Colts (twice). Fatigue is going to kick in eventually, but we think they got a little left in the tank and hang tough when everyone else is chasing and trying to catch easy money on the Rams.
The Pick: Titans +7.5
What can I say except “you’re welcome” - Texans @ Dolphins -6.5 Total 46
Not a whole lot to like here, and I’m sure you’re surprised to see it even make our cut… but we need a favorite. As we said, dogs have been cashing and we’ll continue to ride. But we are too dog heavy. Now, this is totally depending on whether Tyrod is back or not. To our knowledge he’s set to make his first start since week 2, otherwise the spread with Mills playing is not weird at all. But a 1-7 team being a touchdown favorite catches our eye. You might be surprised to hear that Tyrod has the second highest QB rating the NFL. Sure his only full game was against the Jags week 1, but also looked solid in Cleveland (pre-injury). Tua has been hearing for weeks that he might be traded to Houston for DWat, and now he’s going to unleash his Hawaiian wrath like Moana. Let’s jump on the public canoe here, because some public stories have happy endings.
The Pick: Dolphins -6.5
Contrarian play of the week - Raiders @ Giants +3 Total 46
Keep this one short and sweet because we could use every word in the dictionary and still not sell anyone on why we like the Giants here. You got a 2-6 team fresh off a hard fought Monday night loss up against a 5-2 squad…off a BYE? And Vegas is saying it’s a field goal? Vegas is in a lot of businesses, but none of them involve giving away free money. This is as fish in a barrel as it gets for the public.
The Pick: Giants +3.5 (buy the hook)
The Bookies Pick
Before you roll your eyes, just remember this: the bookie lost with the Browns, then won with the Browns the following week (Case starting). So here he goes again back to the well with the Colts. Don’t fade him now ladies and gentlemen! We like this one. It’s our Bookies Pick of the Week!
The Pick: Colts -11
AHHHHHHAHHHHAHH UNDA!!! Broncos @ Cowboys U 49
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 10
Current Record YTD: 26-25
(7-1) #5 Ohio St @ (3-6) Nebraska +15
You’ll notice a trend in this weeks picks. We are fading just about all of the ranked teams vs unranked teams. Starting here with the buckeyes on the road in Lincoln. The Huskers just lost outright as a 7.5 favorite at home against Purdue. Just when you thought Nebraska might’ve figured some things out, Scott Frost flat out blows it. A common theme. His time is almost up here, but not without one last hard fought battle. It’s hard to say that with a straight face, but seriously. This line is too low.
The Pick: Nebraska +15
(8-0) #9 Wake Forest @ (4-4) UNC -2.5
Our favorite line of the weekend. Wake Forest is underdogs in 3 of their remaining 4 games. Kinda crazy for an undefeated top 10 team, right? Vegas doesn’t respect them, and unfortunately neither should you. UNC is not good. We had their season total under and were never a believer in Sam Howell. That said, they had a good chance to cover against ND last weekend, and the game was closer than the 10 point outcome. Look for Mack Brown to end the season on a high note with an upset special in Chapel Hill.
The Pick: UNC ML
(8-0) #3 Michigan St @ (5-3) Purdue +3
For whatever reason, these teams tend to overlook each other. The underdog is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Sparty just played their asses off in that comeback win against Michigan. They’re probably still hungover when you’re reading this. You can search all over the board but you probably won’t find a fishier line. The Boilermakers are playing spoilers come Saturday.
The Pick: Purdue +3
(6-2) #19 NC St @ (3-5) FSU +3.5
Well would you look at that! Mike Norvell has the Seminoles showing some pride in the second half of the season. After starting the season 0-4, the Noles won 3 in a row before losing last weekend in a tough game at Clemson. We like NC St, and think they are the better team, but the spread tells us this game is going to be ugly and close. The Wolfpack are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games on the road. Make it 1-8!
The Pick: FSU +4 (buy .5)
(7-1) #20 Houston @ (2-6) USF +13
Lol…wut? Don’t even know what to say about this spread. USF is a VERY bad team. They just lost 29-14 at home to ECU last weekend, and now they’re only getting 13 against Houston who has won 7 in a row? That’s too low.
The Pick: USF +13
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