WGC Workday Championship at The Concession
Golf and NBA trends to lead you into the weekend
WGC Workday Championship at The Concession
Our debut of picking golf did not go too well, down 6 units out the gate. We had a chance with Cantlay, but he pooped his pants on Sunday. Oh well - to the East coast we go! This tournament was supposed to be in Mexico, but has been moved to Florida due to Covid. Here’s what you need to know:
Extremely hard course. In fact, it could be the toughest course in Florida. Jack Nicklaus (ever heard of him?) designed it. The length will get a lot of hype here but it’s the green complexities that make this course difficult. Even if a player is throwing darts, they will still find themselves chipping and putting from off the green often.
Prayers up to the Big Cat. 🙏 🐅
THE PICKS:
Patrick Cantlay +1800- Predicted he would stay hot last week and he did....until the Final round. Two reasons to go back to Pat this week: great track record on Nicklaus designed courses, and his strokes gained around the green ranking is 6th. Not giving up on him just yet.
Bryson +2000- The Concession has not hosted a premier event since the 2015 NCAA National Championship. The individual champion that week? Yep, the beefcake himself, although he was probably 100 lbs lighter then. This is a thinkers course and nobody thinks harder than ChamBo. He also has had success on Nicklaus courses and his strokes gained around the green ranking comes in at 13th. Not bad for a guy known for mashing 400 yard drives.
Scheffler +4000- Okay, it’s always difficult to gauge a course the tour does not usually visit. It was a long time ago, six years to be exact, but looking back to the NCAA results - Scottie was up there the whole time. It doesn’t hurt that Scottie has become a very solid Tour player since then. Gotta love the value.
Detry +400 Top 20- Super longshot here. You’ve likely never heard of this guy (you’re fucking welcome). He makes his hay on the Euro Tour, yet somehow he’s the 90th ranked player in the world. Had a top 10 a few weeks back in Dubai. Was the anchor for the Illinois Golf team that was in 1st place after the qualifying rounds here in 2015. Take a flyer on a Top 20.
***FADE ALERT*** Hovland +2500- he obviously fits the billing of who can win here but there isn’t an “expert” out there who isn’t backing him. Don’t chase it, he’s a phenomenal player and his time will come, just not this weekend. Don’t like being with the public.
What else is in store for this weekend? A glorious Saturday full of College Basketball. Rather than attempt to give picks without have the spreads, let’s turn our attention to some trends we’ve kept an eye on this past week.
Basketball favorites around -6.5…take the ML. Both NBA and CBB – These have been hitting at a tremendous rate. Granted the juice is usually -250 to around -280, you’d have to be hitting 75% to make it worth your while. Well, we have taken 8 of these in the past 1.5 weeks, and they’ve gone 7-1. Something to really keep an eye on. The spread number is just enough to scare off your average public bettor with 6.5 points, and most sure as hell aren’t willing to risk the ~250 ML. Don’t get cute – sack up and lay it.
Another system we are testing out at the Degen: NBA back-to-backs.
We feel one of the most obvious public plays is to fade a team when they’re playing their second leg of a back to back. However, the smart bet might be betting ON these teams. We just started tracking these plays this week. Follow along daily on our twitter @thedegenweekly as of now (Wednesday) they are 2-2 on the week, with 5 pending Wednesday night.
Offseason:
Golf: Down 6 Units