3 Days. 6 Games. 10,000 Bets.
The beginning of the end is officially here. Before Wildcard Weekend begins, we want to talk about one of the biggest trends for the upcoming weekend.
In simpler terms (that tweet was worded terribly): If a favorite wins they cover, if a dog covers they win.
Valuable insight when you’re looking at SF, Buffalo, and Cincinati laying some big numbers against backup QB’s and Geno Smith. Basically, unless you think the underdog can win outright, you are likely best just staying away.
For the newsletter - we’re keeping it tight again. We went 3-0 last week with each of us hitting our best bet, so with a short card and recent success, we’re gonna stick with that format.
Elimination games on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday certainly means we’ll have a slew of prop and picks that we decide to jump on day of. If you wanna check those out they will be on our Website - TheDegenerateWeekly.com We’ll be up first thing Saturday morning with a fresh cup of coffee at the Sportsbook getting ready for a 12 hour day. But enough with the logistical bullshit, let’s get to the action!
Final Regular Season Record:
NFL: 59-51-5 (+4.64 Units)
CFB: 73-51 (+12.26 Units)
Cowboys @ Buccaneers +2.5 Total 45.5 (Brandon’s Best Bet)
It brings me absolutely zero joy to make this pick. With this write up comes grief, pain, agony, and potentially a boat load of regret. However, I must inform you that it is indeed the Dallas Cowboys (throws up immediately).
If you look at the data, the bets on this game appear to be much more even than I anticipated. There are some situations where I just throw the tickets and handle %’s out the window, and this is one of them. I refuse to believe that Tom Brady at home in the postseason GETTING POINTS is not a trendy dog. Especially considering the Cowboys just lost outright to the Commanders, and Dak threw yet another pick 6.
The one concern I do have as a Cowboys bettor is that the line did go from -3 to -2.5. So whatever money hit Tampa is respected enough by the books to move the line. I also hate taking favorites at this number, as it feels like bait. Just enough to get you in thinking the “better team” only needs to win by a field goal. But that’s why I’m not hesitating here - because the majority of people don’t think the Cowboys are the better team. Again, the narratives you hear all week are that Dak stinks (true), the Cowboys haven’t won a road playoff game in 30 years (true), and Tom Brady is the goat (also true).
The Cowboys ML will be a large wager for me, and I will also be placing a decent sized wager on the Cowboys TT over 23.5. I think there are some deep issues with this Bucs team - on both offense and defense. We wanted to believe all year that they’d figure it out, and they didn’t. Just two weeks ago in a must win game agains the Panthers, Sam Darnold put on an absolute masterclass going 23/37 341 3 TD’s 1 INT. Bettors are quickly forgetting how bad the Bucs defense is because “Dak stinks” (again, this is true).
People are shitting all over Dak this week, and rightfully so, but you know how sports betting tends to work. If this line would have opened -1 or less, it wouldn’t be my best bet. But a Cowboys team that already lost to Tampa 19-3 at home (granted it was in week 1), laying a field goal on the road agains the greatest QB of all time? That just seems like a ton of respect to me. Rather than see it as value, I choose to respect the oddsmakers formula for setting the number.
The Pick: Cowboys -2.5
Chargers @ Jaguars +2 Total 47 (Greg’s Best Bet)
New Year, New You! Eat your vegetables, take your vitamins, and bet the Jaguars.
This one isn’t pretty, and it absolutely isn’t easy, but the Jaguars are the right play this weekend. A team that lost to the Houston Texans and the Denver Broncos has a home playoff game. What a world. After going winless in October, Jacksonville started to turn it around in November and got red hot in December. Party isn’t over yet.
The bets and the handle are on the Chargers, and that’s not surprising. Everyone loves Justin Herbert and Austin Eckler is a fantasy darling. Now, it does look like there’s some buyback on the Chargers, as the line got down to -1 and is back up to -2.5. But the case can be made for that movement being a response to a slew of positive news in LA’s favor: Joey Bosa likely playing, All-Pro LT Rashawn Slater returning from injury, and Mike Williams potentially suiting up (game time decision as of right now).
The Jags are on a win streak, but they just narrowly escaped a Joshua Dobbs lead Titans team at home and needed a late defensive touchdown to survive. They also get an extra day of rest, which doesn’t hurt. The Chargers should have had an extra week but the starters played the full 60 minutes in a meaningless game against the Broncos for some unknown reason… and that leads me to my point below.
Brandon Staley isn’t a terrible coach, but he’s not the guy you want making big decisions in a tense environment. From costing his team a playoff birth last year with the timeout that shocked the world, to playing his starters (who have been banged up all year) in Week 18 with nothing to gain. He consistently makes these types of decisions at the biggest moments - and there are going to be some big moments on Saturday. This is the first playoff game in Jacksonville since 2018, and the second this millennium. Duval is going to be rocking!
The line caught my eye because I don’t think anyone expected the Chargers to be under a field goal. It’s very likely the Jags will be able to move the ball on the ground, keeping golden boy Herbert on the sideline and not asking Trevor Lawrence to do too much. We will very likely be playing the under in this one as well.
I’ve seen too many tweets about the Chargers making a run in the playoffs and upsetting the Chiefs in the next round. Last year in the Wildcard round favorites went 5-1 straight up and ATS. I think this year we see a bit more chaos, and it starts on Saturday night.
The Pick: Jaguars +3 (buy .5)
Ravens @ Bengals -9.5 Total 40 (Jake’s Best Bet)
No Lamar, No Problem. This will be the third matchup this weekend between divisional opponents. And a replay from an easy win and cover last weekend for Cincy. Jake’s not buying the easy money Bengals.
This is the most contrarian play of the weekend with a measly 18% of the public backing Baltimore. The postseason matchup the NFL wants to see most will be Kansas City vs. Buffalo in Atlanta. Would be a damn shame if the Ravens ousted the biggest blockade for that game. A real shame…
The Pick: Ravens +9.5
RECAP
NFL
Cowboys -2.5
Jags +3 (buy .5)
Ravens +9.5