We’re coming to the end of the road, but…
Saturday & Sunday are loaded with football.
As the season winds down, we are getting some of the best football weekends of the year. We have games on Friday, a loaded Saturday, and a packed slate on Sunday.
We’ll have a separate newsletter coming to you early next week with our picks for the next round of the College Football Playoff. We’re still a week away and don’t want to rush anything. And with this weekend of football there is absolutely no reason to.
IF YOU’RE GOING TO ANY GAMES THIS WEEKEND BE SURE TO USE PROMO CODE “DEGEN” FOR $20 OFF YOUR FIRST PURCHASE WITH SEATGEEK
New Merch is now available!
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 35-38-1 (-17.73 Units)
CFB: 53-32-1 (+16.57 Units)
Reminder for tracking purposes: our Best Bets are 2 units (risk)
NFL WEEK 17
Degen continues his hot streak. As for the rest of us…we’ve got some work to do.
As the season comes to a close there are fewer and fewer games where teams actually have something to play for. Look for a short card the next couple of weeks before the Playoffs come in at full force.
Cardinals at Rams -6.5 Total 48 (Degen’s Best Bet) YTD: 9-6-1
I went into the last two bets bets terrified at how much I liked them. This week, I am terrified at how much I hate this one.
Fading the Rams is not much fun. Not only have we done it at certain times throughout the season, but I also took their under win total in the futures market. This team started 1-4 and could have been 0-5 if not for a valiant comeback against the 49ers. I was feeling GOOD about my read. Then they found their swagger with a win against the Vikings, and are now thriving late in the season.
Last week Steak had the Jets as his best bet, and I fully supported it. We were reminded that betting on the Jets was a miserable experience, but fading the Rams felt liked the right play. If you would have told me the Rams would only score 19 points and put up 240 yards of offense, I would have probably bet more on the Jets. It was a tough scheduling spot - having to go cross country to play a team whose season is over before you come back home and play two divisional opponents.
The Cardinals fooled everyone by winning 4 straight games heading into their BYE week. Coming out of it, they have now lost 4/5 and are officially eliminated from the playoffs. They’re also facing the Rams in a rematch this season after they beat the absolute piss out of them in the first meeting 41-10. It was one of the worst losses McCvay has been dealt in his career. I’m sure some will say there may be a “revenge” angle for the Rams, but I say LA has their true sights set on next weeks game against Seattle which could determine the division winner.
One thing I have always said is that you want Kyler Murray as a dog, not as a favorite. I’m going to lean into that here as Murray is now a useless dog. The concern I have in this game is an obvious one: injuries. The Cardinals lost their two tackles, and now James Conner is banged up. Reports are that he’s limited in practice but wants to play. I’m sure most people don’t want to go near a “dead” team like Arizona, but I tend to find that you get a surprising effort from teams when the pressure is off. Look at recent games with the Jets at Miami and the Raiders at Chiefs. Both divisional dogs almost won outright.
I sure hate for the best bet streak to come to an end by betting on a shit team and fading a good one. That has been a rule I implemented weeks ago when we had the Degen Players Only Meeting, and I have been sticking to it. But now…I relapse.
The Pick: Cardinals +6.5 (-105) Fanduel
Broncos at Bengals -3.5 Total 49.5 (Greg’s Best Bet) YTD: 5-11
Maybe I’m an idiot for going to another under. I went for a run to find some clarity and break out of my slump. Honestly this bet was not on my radar before I started and it’s all I could think about at the end.
The Bengals have become everyone’s darling pick to make the Playoffs, and a win here would greatly increase their chances. A Broncos win cements their place in the postseason. The stakes are high and we get an excellent matchup in a standalone game on Saturday afternoon.
I could sell myself on either side, but I’m buying the under.
If the Broncos want to win they need to keep Joe Burrow off the field and put together time consuming drives. The Bengals will certainly pull out all the stops as they are in desperation mode, but every time they try to go blow for blow and let Burrow air it out the defense falls apart and they come up short.
Regardless of the winner I like the defenses to step up and the offenses to use up a lot of clock on their scoring drives.
Back to the well with and under. Back to the well to get out of the hole.
The Pick: UNDER 49.5 (-110)
Panthers at Buccaneers -7.5 Total 48.5 (Steak’s Best Bet) YTD: 5-11
Monday Morning: 9:49am EST.
Three messages came in loud and clear to our group text.
Steak: I already have my best bet
Steak: Bucs -8
Steak: WHALE
The Panthers find themselves as cozy dogs to the Bucs when they went to OT just a few weeks ago. Now, the Panthers are coming off a huge win and the Bucs are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Cooper Rush lead Cowboys in prime time.
Steak’s hammering the Buccaneers in a perfect sell high, buy low situation against the Panthers.
The Pick: Buccaneers -7.5 (-115) DK
Bowl Season
Degen’s got Covid, Steaks on vacation, and Bowl games are becoming increasingly difficult to get an early read.
No newsletter picks this weekend BUT you can be damn sure we’ll be punching some things in on the weekend so be sure to check in on Twitter and Action Network.
We’ll have a separate newsletter for the College Football Playoff before the kickoff.
RECAP:
NFL
Cardinals +6.5 (-105) FD - Degen’s Best Bet
Broncos/Bengals Under 49.5 (-110) - Greg’s Best Bet
Bucs -7.5 (-115) DK - Steak’s Best Bet