Winter is Coming
NFL Week 13 & College Football Week 14
The End of the College Football Regular Season
The Beginning of the NFL Playoff Push
Now that the Turkey is settled, it’s time to focus in on the home stretch.
Sadly, this is the last full weekend of College Football, but have no fear. With the Playoff and Bowl games we’ll still have plays a plenty through the month of December.
We FINALLY had a winning week in the NFL. Now it’s time to build on momentum. We certainly don’t expect to dig out of this big of a hole overnight, but anything in the green is a massive vote of confidence that we hope brings success.
Winter football is here, the playoff picture is emerging, let’s get after it.
Follow The Degenerate YouTube Channel to rewatch all of are streams throughout the week.
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 25-31-1 (-19.37 Units)
CFB: 50-28-1 (+17.98 Units)
Reminder for tracking purposes: our Best Bets are 2 units (risk)
NFL WEEK 13
Weather Report: There’s a Polar Vortex from Siberia pushing through the Canadian parries. What the fuck does that mean? Cold. Bitter, bone chilling cold. The absolute best weather for watching football.
A game is just better when you’re in the comfort of your living room watching these guys battle it out in 30 degree weather. Nothing better than December football.
So pour yourself some hot cocoa, make a leftover turkey sandwich and let’s try to get another week in the green.
Titans at Commanders -5.5 Total 44.5 (Degen’s Best Bet) YTD: 5-6-1
At 7-2, the Washington Commanders were the talk of the town. Potential coach of the year candidate and offensive rookie of the year - odds on favorites for both. Then they lose 3 straight and suddenly the sky is falling. You know that saying “the time to buy is when there’s blood on the streets” well I’m seeing red in DC.
I’ve faded this Commanders team twice for my best bets earlier in the season. Learned the hard way that they were for real. Now they lose 3 straight and everyone is digging up old dirt on Kliff Kingsbury about how is offenses fall off a cliff in the second half of seasons. I’m not here to tell you that’s hogwash, because it isn’t. What I am here to tell you is I would not be panicking if I’m a Commanders fan. And as a sports bettor, now is when I want to buy low.
This has been a brutal stretch for the Commanders. After their hail mary win against the Bears (who were off a BYE), they had to go on the road and face a divisional opponent. Win. Then they come back home to play a Pittsburgh Steelers team (also off a BYE). They lost but had a lead late in the game and still managed to put up 27 points against the best defense they faced all season. Then a short week on the road to play at Philly. Washington had a lead and was in control until the 4th Q when Saquon went nuts. Then the inevitable bad loss to the horrid Cowboys.
So let’s take it back – that’s 3 divisional opponents in 4 weeks, two of which on the road, and the non divisional game was against a rested Steelers D. Not great, Bob! I still think this Washington defense is better than people are giving them credit for, and I still believe the offense is legit. I want to back the Commanders off a bad loss and fade the Tennessee Titans after a huge divisional win. The Titans are also playing their third road game in four weeks. Dan Quinn masterclass., yea I said it.
The Pick: Commanders -5.5 (-110) DK
Chargers at Falcons +1.5 Total 47.5 (Greg’s Best Bet) YTD: 5-7
Even though I have a ticket on Atlanta to win the NFC South, I am very aware that this team has “fraud” written all over them.
The last two weeks for the Falcons heading into their BYE were about as ugly as you can imagine. Road losses to the Saints and Broncos, the latter being an absolute massacre. They had a week off to lick their wounds and come back with a strong push to win the NFC South.
The biggest problem in Atlanta has been the defense, specifically the pass rush. It’s tough to beat any quarterback, much less Justin Herbert, unless you can get a little pressure on them.
I think the week off will help defensive minded head coach, Raheem Morris, find a way to address the weakness. They don’t have to be remarkable, but they have to be better than what they’ve shown the first 11 weeks of the season.
The Chargers are coming off back to back Primetime games, and now travel cross country on a short week before going to Kansas City for a big divisional game next week. Woof. LA has shown their own weaknesses on defense as well, which should be ripe for an explosive Falcons offense (looking at you, Bijan).
Atlanta has proven they can hang with the best in the NFL, beating the Eagles and coming down to the wire with the Chiefs. We’ve said it a few times, but the Chargers love to come out in games hot, and then fade in the 2H. I think Atlanta can take a few punches out of the gate and close out strong.
It’s gonna be a tight game, but I’m going Dirty Birds for a nasty win.
The Pick: Falcons +1.5 (-110) FanDuel
Steelers at Bengals -3 Total 47.5 (Steak’s Best Bet) YTD: 3-9
Everyone keeps trying to grab the falling knife in Cincinnati and guess when this team makes their playoff push.
Steak’s here to tell you - Stop Dreaming.
Joe Burrow has been amazing, but this defense is a far cry from what it’s been in the past and it seems like no matter how well Burrow plays, it’s just enough to be not enough.
It feels like we are watching the same press conference week after week in Cincinnati as the Bengals just can’t seem to get it right.
Steak says the Bengals are the next Jets and the resurgence isn’t coming.
Better luck next year, Joe.
The Pick: Steelers +3 (-110) DK
Cardinals at Vikings -3.5 Total 44.5
Minnesota just ran a gauntlet. Crazy to say that when you see they played the Jaguars, Titans, and Bears - but winning three consecutive road games in the NFL is not easy task. Back home and rested after feeling a bit too fat and happy is where we want to fade them.
The Darnold resurgence continues, but he’s certainly slowed down a bit after coming out of the gate scorching hot. Arizona’s defense has been sneaky good and Kyler Murray as a dog is something we are leaning into after an ugly divisional loss at Seattle.
The Cardinals have struggled on the road, but mainly in games where they were exposed to the elements, which won’t be the case in the dome this weekend.
The Pick: Cardinals +3.5 (-110)
AHHHHHHH-AHHHHHHHH-AHH UNDA!
Buccaneers at Panthers UNDER 46.5 (-110)
Must be crazy to take a Bucs under, but his one feels right. We know it was against Tommy DeVito, but the Bucs defense looks strong out of the BYE and they are getting healthy.
Dave Canales gets his shot of revenge, and might have enough insider knowledge to slow down Baker.
We think both teams come out with a heavy dose of run, and we’ll be shouting “tick, tickkk, tickkkkkk” all game long.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 14
You can get thoughts on every game with Degen, Steak and Jovan here:
Minnesota at Wisconsin +1.5
Steak has given me shit for being in love with Wisconsin and always wanting to bet them. He’s not wrong. When they hired Luke Fickell two years ago, I said it was the best move any school made all offseason. I didn’t care that they were ditching the run heavy scheme and transitioning to an air raid offense. I only cared when I saw Tanner Mordecai throw 5 interceptions in last years spring game. Going into this year, I was okay enough with Tyler Van Dyke being the new QB. Even when he went down with an injury early in the Alabama game, I STILL didn’t mind the backup (laughing emjoi). So yea, Steak isn’t wrong, but this time it’s him that wants a piece of the Badgers. So now we have to pull the trigger.
We had Minnesota last week in their home finale against Penn State. I have to admit that I was not in love with the pick, but trusted Steak and he delivered. Penn State got off to a sluggish start and Minnesota got up for that game. The Gophers almost won. Now they head to Madison against what you’d think is a dead team in Wisconsin, but they’re 5-6 and playing for their 6h win and bowl eligibility. Do players give a fuck about bowls anymore? Probably not, but we still have a hard time thinking Minnesota gives too much of a shit about this game either after a hard fought battle at home against Penn State. They left it all on the field, and I’m going to give Fickell the benefit of the doubt in thinking he can get his players to show up for senior day.
The Pick: Wisconsin +1.5 (-115) – BetMGM
Stanford at San Jose St -2.5
San Jose made headlines two weeks ago for bad beat of the year candidate against Boise St. We came very close to backing them the following week, because that’s just how we gamble, but we stayed off at the last second. Instead, I played the over, which was just as equally as shit of a wager. Turns out it was pouring rain in San Jose. Not ideal for this type of offense. I’m no weatherman but it looks like the rain won’t be an issue today.
After two straight home losses, we think the Spartans end their season on a high not after losing 3 of their last 4. Not to mention, Stanford has been gritty as of late, but they stink. Credit deserved for taking down Louisville in their final home game as 20 point dogs, then they almost won outright on the road against Cal as 14 point dogs. The magic runs out for this Cardinal team today. If SJSU gets an early lead, Stanford doesn’t have the passing game to keep up.
The Pick: SJSU ML (-130) – Draftkings
Nebraska at Iowa -3
The Huskers have had a pretty respectable 4 weeks of football despite going 1-3. They hung with Ohio St on the road as 25 point dogs, lost to UCLA (who is better than expected), and were pretty competitive on the road at USC. Then they treated their fans with the best offensive performance of the season on senior night scoring 44 points in a dominate win against Wisconsin. You know what sucks? Having to finish the year on the road at Iowa. The Hawkeyes have been good at home all year, and they just bounced back after a disappointing loss to UCLA. We think Nebraska is already looking forward to 2025, whereas Iowa wants to treat their home fans well and get that 8th win.
The Pick: Iowa -3 (-110) – BetMGM
Oklahoma at LSU -5.5
We will make this one short and sweet, because there’s a good chance we regret betting on Brian Kelly. Is he coaching for his job? Not sure. In my opinion, the frustration down in the Bayou has grown so loud that I’d personally think he’s already gone. Either way, this is a fade spot of Oklahoma after their win at home against Alabama as 13.5 point dogs. Jackson Arnold is bad and this team isn’t very good overall, so despite not being comfortable betting on a potentially already fired coach (BK), we can’t resist betting against the Sooners after their fans stormed the field for their 6th win of the season.
The Pick: LSU -5.5 (-110) – Fanduel
Texas at Texas A&M +5.5
Jovan had a great sell job on the Aggies. I highly recommend watching Wednesdays Board Review on YouTube (see above) as he can pitch it better than us. We’re tailing.
The Pick: Texas A&M +5.5 (-110)
RECAP:
NFL
Commanders -5.5 (-110) DK - Degen’s Best Bet
Falcons +1.5 (-110) FanDuel - Greg’s Best Bet
Steelers +3 (-110) DK - Steak’s Best Bet
Cardinals +3.5 (-110) FD
Bucs/Panthers UNDER 46.5 (-110) FD
CFB
Wisconsin +1.5 (-110) - BetMGM
SJSU ML (-130) - Draftkings
Iowa -3 (-115) - BetMGM
LSU -5.5 (-110) - FanDuel
Texas A&M +5.5 (-110)